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Moody's reported that its trailing 12-month global speculative-grade default rate stood at 4.4% at the end of June 2025 (preliminary results), up from 4.3% in the previous month. Its baseline scenario sees the global default rate decreasing to 3.6% in December 2025. Moody's puts the global historical average default rate at 4.2%. The U.S. speculative-grade default rate stood at 5.9% in June. Moody's baseline scenario sees the U.S. default rate decreasing to 4.1% in December 2025. For comparison, in January, Moody's estimated that the global and U.S. speculative-grade default rates would decline to 2.6% and 2.7%, respectively, by December 2025.
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