
Implications: The job market continues to defy fears of an AI-related job apocalypse. Nonfarm payrolls jumped 162,000 in August, beating even the most optimistic forecast by any Economics group on Bloomberg. Job growth in prior months was revised higher by 55,000 as well, erasing the prior negative reading for July. Meanwhile, civilian employment, an alternative yet volatile measure of jobs that includes small-business start-ups, rose 569,000, corroborating the strong headline number. Big picture, it looks like the US labor market has strengthened so far this year, with average monthly growth of 80,000 in 2026 versus just 20,000 in 2025. While government employment posted one of the largest gains in August (+35,000), private-sector payrolls increased 127,000 as well, driven by broad increases. Leisure and hospitality (+62,000), healthcare and social assistance (+28,000), construction (+22,000), and manufacturing (+16,000) all contributed. Manufacturing and construction are worth highlighting because both categories have significantly improved in 2026, likely related to the buildout of data centers across the country. For added perspective, these two sectors alone have added 145,000 jobs in 2026. Despite strong job growth in August, the unemployment rate remained unchanged at 4.1%. However, this was due to a 683,000 increase in the labor force (people who are either working or looking for work), another healthy signal. While data on growth in both jobs and the labor force were stronger than expected in August, keep in mind the underlying trend likely isn’t as strong as August data show. A combination of strict immigration enforcement and an aging population should mean slower growth in jobs without pushing up unemployment, which is what we’ve witnessed in the past year. The most important part of today’s report for the markets is that average hourly earnings rose 0.3% in August and are up 3.1% from a year ago. All the strength in jobs and hours makes it more likely the Fed raises rates later this month unless next week’s CPI report comes in below the consensus expected 0.4%.
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