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   Brian Wesbury
Chief Economist
 
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   Bob Stein
Deputy Chief Economist
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Research Reports
2024
3/20/2024Rate Expectations
1/31/2024May Day
2023
12/13/2023Fed Declares Mission Accomplished
11/1/2023Pause…For Now
9/20/2023You Know It When You See It
7/26/2023Time Will Tell
6/14/2023The Fed Is All Mixed Up
5/3/2023Has the Fed Paused?
4/6/2023The “Abundant Reserve” System Crushes the Fed
3/22/2023All Mixed Up
2/1/2023Slowing, Not Stopping
1/25/2023First Trust 2023 Economic Year-End Outlook
2022
12/21/2022Is the BLS Cooking the Books?
12/14/2022More Work to Do
11/2/2022How Fast, How High, How Long
9/21/2022Another 75… With More to Come
7/27/2022What Wasn’t Said
7/14/2022Dollar Remains World Reserve Currency
6/28/2022The Monetary Surge Continues to Ebb
6/15/2022Fed Goes Bigger
5/20/2022Talking (and Warning) About Inflation Since the Start
5/4/2022Jerome Volcker
3/16/2022Powell Channels Volcker
1/26/2022Liftoff in March
2021
12/15/2021Faster Taper, Setting Up for Rate Hikes
11/3/2021Taper Time
9/22/2021China Worries Unwarranted
9/22/2021Fed Set to Announce Taper in November
7/28/2021Are We There Yet?
6/16/2021Fed Hawks Hatch
4/28/2021Closer, But Still Not Close
3/17/2021The Fed Speaks Softly, But Carries Some Big Numbers
2/25/2021The Greatest Possible Stimulus
2/10/2021Immunity is Closer Than You Think
1/27/2021Watching and Waiting
2020
12/16/2020Eyes on the Horizon
11/5/2020Not Much to Miss
9/16/2020Fed Determined to Stay Loose
7/29/2020Steady As She Goes
6/10/2020Loose and Staying Loose
4/29/2020QE Infinity and Beyond
3/23/2020Cut the Politicians' Pay
3/13/2020Reasons to Be Positive About the US Coronavirus Fight
2/25/2020Is It Time to Fear the Coronavirus?
2/3/2020Economic Data Release Calendar 2020
1/29/2020Quiet Year Ahead
2019
12/11/2019Fed on Hold
10/30/2019Finally, A Pause
9/18/2019Repo Madness
9/18/2019It’s Not You, It’s Me
7/31/2019Drip Drip Drip
6/19/2019Fed Tees Up Rate Cuts
5/1/2019No Cut in Sight
3/20/2019The Fed Emphasizes Patience
1/30/2019Patient Powell
2018
12/19/2018Market Overreacts to A More Dovish Fed
12/13/2018Yellen Agrees with The Austrians
11/8/2018Stay the Course
9/26/2018Full Steam Ahead
8/1/2018Waiting for September
6/13/2018Letting the Data do the Talking
5/30/2018An Open Letter to Arthur Brooks
5/2/2018Fed on Track for Four
3/21/2018Powell Takes Charge
2/9/2018This is Just a Correction…
1/31/2018Little Change as Yellen Exits
2017
12/13/2017Fed Stays on Right Hiking Path
11/1/2017Fed Resists the Doves
10/24/2017Tax Cuts Matter, Spending Cuts Matter More
9/20/2017Fed Resists the Doves
8/18/2017Let the Private Sector Take the Reins on Infrastructure
7/26/2017The Road to Normal Starts in September
6/14/2017Fed Hikes Again, Sets Plan to Re-Normalize Balance Sheet
5/3/2017Fed on Track to Hike in June
3/15/2017A Dovish Rate Hike
2/1/2017Fed Tilts Hawkish
2016
12/14/2016The Fed Turns Hawkish
12/1/2016Populist Uprising or Conservative Revival?
11/9/2016Saving Private Sector
11/2/2016Rate Hike Looks Set for December
9/21/2016Rate Hike Looks Set for December
7/27/2016Despite a Wimpy Fed, September Hike on the Table
6/15/2016Fed Projects Very Slow Path for Rate Hikes
4/27/2016Fed Nudges Toward a June Rate Hike
3/16/2016Rates Hikes on the Way
3/9/2016TARP Was a Mistake, Not a Success
3/4/2016The Healthcare Dichotomy
2/12/2016This is a Correction, Not a Recession
1/27/2016Fed Waiting for More Information
2015
12/16/2015The Fed Launches Rate Hikes
11/17/2015The Worst Recovery Ever…For Part-Time Jobs
11/13/2015It’s the Domestic Spending; Stupid
10/28/2015Fed Sets Stage For December Rate Hike
9/24/2015How TARP Created Trump
9/22/2015Government Taxi Bubble Causes Credit Union Failure
9/17/2015Yellen Flinches
7/29/2015September Hike Still on the Table
6/17/2015Fed Talks Hawkish, Acts Dovish
6/16/2015Greece is Detroit, Not Lehman
4/29/2015Key Seven Weeks Starts Now
3/18/2015Yellen Loses "Patience," But Maintains Flexibility
3/4/2015Don’t Audit It: Rein It In
1/28/2015Rate Hikes Still A Few Meetings Away
2014
12/17/2014Rate Hikes To Start in 2015
10/29/2014Fed Ends QE, Rate Hikes Now on Radar
9/17/2014Rate Hikes Approaching
7/30/2014Improving Economy, Weaker Guideposts
7/28/2014The Fed’s Massive Power Grab
6/18/2014Flock of Doves
5/28/2014The Myth of 2008
4/30/2014Fed Acknowledges Faster Growth
3/19/2014Dovish Words, Hawkish Forecast
1/29/2014Another Meeting, Another Taper
2013
12/18/2013A Dovish-Bullish Taper
10/30/2013A Bit More Hawkish, All Things Considered
9/18/2013Yellen Takes Over
8/19/2013Part-Timers and the Labor Market
7/31/2013Fed Shows Its Dovish Side
6/19/2013Fed Slightly More Optimistic
5/1/2013Fed Doesn't Budge
3/20/2013Fed Still Inching Toward Optimism
1/30/2013Fed Inches Toward More Optimism
2012
12/12/2012To QE Infinity, and Beyond!
10/24/2012Fed Doesn't Budge
9/13/2012Fed Sets Sail on QE3
8/1/2012Status Quo Fed
7/5/2012Business Investment Dwarfs Housing
6/28/2012Step Two – Going Backward – Election More Important Than Ever
6/20/2012Fed Does the Least
4/25/2012Nothing New From the Fed
3/13/2012No Sign of QE3
3/1/2012Fed Done: So Is Gold
2/3/2012Drudge, Tyler Durden and Economic Ignorance
2/2/2012Low Labor Force Participation Rate?...Not So Fast
1/25/2012Fed Language Goes Dovish, But Policy Unchanged
1/6/2012All The Emperors Are Naked
2011
12/13/2011Fed Less Gloomy on Economy, No Change in Policy
11/30/2011Europe - No More Tricks in the Keynesian Bag
11/16/2011The Super Committee - Much Ado About Little
11/9/2011The Drachma is Dead: So Is the Welfare State
11/3/2011The Story of MF Global - Capitalism Works
11/2/2011Fed Stands Pat on Policy
11/2/2011Housing At An Inflection Point
9/21/2011Fed Actively Twists But Holds Off on QE3
8/10/2011Fed Commits to Low Rates as Far as the Eye Can See
8/7/2011US Debt: Moody’s AAA / S&P AA+
8/4/2011Dow Down 500, But Fundamentals Still Strong
6/22/2011Fed Gets Slightly More Hawkish on Inflation, More Dovish on Growth
4/27/2011Minor Changes to Official Statement, More News in Press Conference
3/15/2011Fed Pays Lip Service to Better Economy and Higher Inflation
1/26/2011Bring Back Hoenig
2010
12/14/2010Fed Keeps Monetary Spigot Wide Open
11/3/2010Fed Embarks on QEII
9/21/2010Fed Fills Can of Gas, Threatens to Douse Fire
8/10/2010The Fed Gives the Treasury a Gift
6/23/2010The Fed Flies with the Doves
4/29/2010Fed Twiddles Its Thumbs
4/26/2010Steep Auto Sector Recovery to Continue
3/16/2010Fed Still Clinging to Extremely Loose Money
3/3/2010Bernanke Finally Fingers Mark-To-Market
2/19/2010The Fed Tests the Waters
2/12/2010The (Relatively) Bullish Case for Consumer Spending
1/27/2010"Extended Period" of Low Rates Starting to Lose Support
2009
12/16/2009Fed Inching Toward Higher Rates
12/15/2009Dive In: Housing is Cheap
12/3/2009Did the White House Signal Higher Unemployment?
11/4/2009Fed Tells Us What Will Lead to Rate Hikes
9/30/2009V-Shaped Recovery Update
9/23/2009Fed Sees Better Growth
9/1/2009This Recovery Won’t Be Jobless
8/13/2009Fed More Optimistic, But Stays Loose
6/24/2009Fed Steps Away From Quantitative Easing
6/24/2009John Callaway - RIP
6/9/2009V-Shaped Recovery Underway
5/26/2009Big Housing Recovery on the Way
4/2/2009Auto Sales Update
3/23/2009Bright Prospects for a Steep Auto Sector Recovery
3/18/2009Fed Balance Sheet Explodes
2/27/2009Consumer Loans Not the Next "Crisis"
2/12/2009Untouchable Accounting Rules; Really?
2/9/2009Unemployment and Stimulus II
1/7/2009CPI Deflation On Tap – But It’s Just Temporary
2008
12/23/2008Fed Balance Sheet Expansion Is Not Hyper-Inflationary
12/16/2008The Fed Goes Nuclear
12/4/2008Velocity Watch
12/3/2008NBER Makes it Official
12/3/2008Mark-to-Market Mayhem II
11/25/2008Following Our Plan
11/13/2008Roosevelt, Carter, or Clinton?
10/29/2008Fed Cuts Rates to 1%
10/8/2008We Need a Game Changer, Now!
10/6/2008New Forecast
9/25/2008Mark-to-Market Mayhem
8/5/2008Fed Takes "Baby Step" Toward Tightening
7/8/2008Home Sales Hitting Bottom
6/25/2008August Tightening On the Table
6/19/2008Forecast Update: Faster Growth, Higher Inflation, Higher Interest Rates
6/12/2008The Best Medicine - Fed Rate Hikes
4/25/2008Fed Turning the Corner
4/16/2008Brian Wesbury's Testimony to House Committee on Financial Services
4/10/2008Still No Recession in Our Forecast
3/14/2008Inflation Still A Long-Term Problem
3/11/2008Fed Answers Our Concerns
2/20/2008Recession Talk Premature
2/11/2008Fed Hesitation Hurting Economy
1/30/2008The Fed Cuts Another 50
1/29/2008Testimony to House Committee on the Budget
1/22/2008Fed Makes Emergency Rate Cut
1/17/2008Cutting Our Q4 Growth Estimate to 1.5%
1/16/2008Slow Money Supply Growth Doesn't Mean Low Inflation
2007
12/28/2007Voting With Our Feet
12/20/2007Non-Housing GDP Signals Loose Money
12/11/2007Fed Moves Again in December
11/27/2007Seeing the Light at the End of the Housing Tunnel
10/31/2007Two and Done
9/20/2007They Actually Did It - Cut Rates That Is
9/14/2007Claims Not Signaling Recession
8/29/2007Confidence Data Do Not Signal Consumer Slowdown
8/23/2007The Energizer Bunny Economy
8/13/2007Odds of a Fed Rate Cut Not 100%
8/8/2007The Greenspan Put is Dead: Long Live Bernanke
7/25/2007The Hypochondriac Market
6/28/2007The Fed Gets Bullish
6/7/2007Indigestion
5/31/2007Economic Bears Being Left Behind
4/23/2007Labor Pains
2/2/2007Rising Wage Gap, But No Squeeze
2006
11/15/2006A New Direction for America
8/30/2006The Supply-Side Scuffle
8/8/2006A Pause in Rate Hikes, Not the End
7/20/2006Pause Talk Déjà vu
6/30/2006The Canary Chirps Again
6/16/2006The Resilient Economy
5/10/2006The Manufacturing Renaissance
5/8/2006Transparency and Inflation Targets
4/27/2006Fed May Pause “At Some Point” – But Uncertainty Reigns
4/3/2006Bernanke Provides Continuity and More Tranparancy

These posts were prepared by First Trust Advisors L.P., and reflect the current opinion of the authors. They are based upon sources and data believed to be accurate and reliable. Opinions and forward looking statements expressed are subject to change without notice. This information does not constitute a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any security.
 
The information presented is not intended to constitute an investment recommendation for, or advice to, any specific person. By providing this information, First Trust is not undertaking to give advice in any fiduciary capacity within the meaning of ERISA, the Internal Revenue Code or any other regulatory framework. Financial professionals are responsible for evaluating investment risks independently and for exercising independent judgment in determining whether investments are appropriate for their clients.
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