Implications:  Durable goods orders ended the third quarter on a strong note, rising 0.5% in September, with nearly every major category showing gains.  Yes, orders for defense aircraft soared 30.9% for the month, but orders excluding transportation rose a very healthy 0.6% on the month and every major category increased.  The rise in non-transportation orders in September was led by electrical equipment (+1.5%), primary metals (+1.4%), and fabricated metal products (+0.5%), while computers & electronic products (+0.5%) and machinery (+0.1%) also increased.  The most important number in today’s release, core shipments – a key input for business investment in the calculation of GDP – rose 0.9% in September, the largest monthly increase since January of 2023.  For the third quarter as a whole, they were up at a 5.0% annualized rate versus the Q2 average, the strongest quarterly growth since mid-2022.  While employment and inflation remain under the spotlight as the Federal Reserve looks very likely to continue the rate cut process at the next meeting in December, we will also be paying close attention to how businesses – and consumers – continue to respond to the certainty now in place from the passage of the tax bill earlier this year, which should enhance the competitiveness of US companies.  In other recent news, the Richmond Fed Index – a measure of factory sentiment in that region - fell to -15.0 in November from -4.0 in October, while the Chicago Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) – where readings above 50 signal growth – declined to 36.3 in November from 43.8 in October, signaling activity in that region continues to contract. On the housing front, pending home sales (which are contracts on existing homes) jumped 1.9% in October following a 0.1% rise in September, suggesting existing home sales (counted at closing) will modestly rise in November.  Finally, initial jobless claims declined 4,000 last week to 216,000; continuing claims rose 7,000 to 1.960 million. Pairing these figures with other data on employment suggests modest continued job growth in November. 

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