Home   Logon   Mobile Site   Research and Commentary   About Us   Call 1.800.621.1675 or Email Us       Follow Us: 

Search by Ticker, Keyword or CUSIP       

Blog Home
   Brian Wesbury
Chief Economist
Click for Bio
Follow Brian on Twitter Follow Brian on LinkedIn View Videos on YouTube
   Bob Stein
Deputy Chief Economist
Click for Bio
Follow Bob on Twitter Follow Bob on LinkedIn View Videos on YouTube
  Nonfarm Payrolls Increased 263,000 in November
Posted Under: Autos • Data Watch • Employment • Government • Inflation • Fed Reserve • Interest Rates
Supporting Image for Blog Post


Implications:  The job market in November was not as strong as the payroll headline suggests, but also signals that the Fed needs to keep hiking rates.  Nonfarm payrolls rose 263,000 in November, beating the consensus expected 200,000.  The gains in November were led by leisure & hospitality, which is still recovering from the COVID shutdowns, and education & health care.  The weakest sector was retail, another sign the economy is shifting away from goods and toward services, the opposite of what happened during the first year of COVID.  Meanwhile, the details of the report were not as strong as the headline.  Civilian employment, an alternative measure of jobs that includes small business start-ups, declined 138,000.  The labor force – people who are either working or looking for work – dropped 186,000.  As a result, the labor force participation rate ticked down for the third month in a row to 62.1%, tying the lowest level in 2022.  Most importantly, the average private-sector workweek slipped to 34.4 hours in November, the lowest level since 2020.  As a result, even though more people were working the total number of hours worked declined 0.2%.  That’s the equivalent of losing about 250,000 jobs.  Total hours worked are up at only a 1.1% annualized rate in the past three months, which is consistent with the late stages of a labor-market recovery and suggests a significant slowdown in the pace of net job creation in the months ahead.  Does this mean the Federal Reserve will soon stop hiking rates?  Nope!  Average hourly earnings rose 0.6% in November and are up 5.1% versus a year ago.  That year-ago comparison is slower than inflation, which means a reduction in workers’ “real” (inflation-adjusted) purchasing power.  But the 0.6% gain in November itself shows that workers might be factoring higher inflation into their wage demands, which is something the Fed is determined to prevent.  In other recent news, automakers reported selling cars and light trucks at a 14.4 million annual rate in November, higher than the average 13.9 million pace of the past twelve months.

Clikc here for a PDF version

Posted on Friday, December 2, 2022 @ 10:48 AM • Post Link Share: 
Print this post Printer Friendly

These posts were prepared by First Trust Advisors L.P., and reflect the current opinion of the authors. They are based upon sources and data believed to be accurate and reliable. Opinions and forward looking statements expressed are subject to change without notice. This information does not constitute a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any security.
The information presented is not intended to constitute an investment recommendation for, or advice to, any specific person. By providing this information, First Trust is not undertaking to give advice in any fiduciary capacity within the meaning of ERISA, the Internal Revenue Code or any other regulatory framework. Financial professionals are responsible for evaluating investment risks independently and for exercising independent judgment in determining whether investments are appropriate for their clients.
First Trust Portfolios L.P.  Member SIPC and FINRA. (Form CRS)   •  First Trust Advisors L.P. (Form CRS)
Home |  Important Legal Information |  Privacy Policy |  California Privacy Policy |  Business Continuity Plan |  FINRA BrokerCheck
Copyright © 2023 All rights reserved.