Home Logon FTA Investment Managers Blog Subscribe About Us Contact Us

Search by Ticker, Keyword or CUSIP       
 
 

Blog Home
   Brian Wesbury
Chief Economist
 
Bio
X •  LinkedIn
   Bob Stein
Deputy Chief Economist
Bio
X •  LinkedIn
 
  Real GDP Growth in Q3 was Revised to a 3.4% Annual Rate
Posted Under: Data Watch • GDP
Supporting Image for Blog Post

 

Implications: Today's final GDP report for the third quarter had real economic growth at a 3.4% annual rate, just below consensus expectations, but still the second fastest reading in four years and the second consecutive quarter of 3%+ real growth.  The government made only minor changes to the components of GDP, but negative revisions slightly offset positive ones.  The more important news in the report was that corporate profits were revised slightly higher from prior estimates, growing 3.5% in Q3 and up 10.4% from a year ago, the fastest growth rates since 2014 and 2012 respectively.  The upward revision was mainly due to the nonfinancial corporate sector in the US, a bullish sign for capital investment in the year ahead.  Meanwhile, thanks to the tax cuts, after-tax profits are up nearly 20% in the past year.  Plugging the new profits data into our capitalized profits model suggests US equities remain cheap, not only at today's interest rates but even using a 10-year Treasury yield of 3.5%.  In other words, the correction we have seen since mid-September is a buying opportunity; we expect the stock market to move higher in the months ahead.  In terms of monetary policy, the Fed should see today's report as a confirmation that they made the right decision to raise short-term rates earlier this week.  Nominal GDP growth (real growth plus inflation) was revised to a still healthy 4.9% annual rate in Q3 from a prior estimate of 5.0%, is up 5.5% in the past year, and up at a 4.8% annual rate in the past two years, leaving the Fed plenty of room for a few rate hikes in 2019.  In other news yesterday, initial jobless claims rose 8,000 last week to 214,000.  Meanwhile, continuing claims rose 27,000 to 1.69 million. These figures are at very low levels and consistent with continued robust job gains in December.

Click here for PDF version


Posted on Friday, December 21, 2018 @ 11:44 AM • Post Link Print this post Printer Friendly

These posts were prepared by First Trust Advisors L.P., and reflect the current opinion of the authors. They are based upon sources and data believed to be accurate and reliable. Opinions and forward looking statements expressed are subject to change without notice. This information does not constitute a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any security.
Search Posts
 PREVIOUS POSTS
New Orders for Durable Goods Rose 0.8% in November
Market Overreacts to A More Dovish Fed
Existing Home Sales Rose 1.9% in November
Housing Starts Increased 3.2% in November
No Housing Bubble
Industrial Production Rose 0.6% in November
Retail Sales Rose 0.2% in November
Brian Wesbury on Fox Business: Recession Fears and Bond Yield Bubbles
Yellen Agrees with The Austrians
Brian Wesbury on CNBC: Is Corporate Debt a Major Risk to the Economy?
Archive
Skip Navigation Links.
Expand 20242024
Expand 20232023
Expand 20222022
Expand 20212021
Expand 20202020
Expand 20192019
Expand 20182018
Expand 20172017
Expand 20162016
Expand 20152015
Expand 20142014
Expand 20132013
Expand 20122012
Expand 20112011
Expand 20102010

Search by Topic
Skip Navigation Links.

 
The information presented is not intended to constitute an investment recommendation for, or advice to, any specific person. By providing this information, First Trust is not undertaking to give advice in any fiduciary capacity within the meaning of ERISA, the Internal Revenue Code or any other regulatory framework. Financial professionals are responsible for evaluating investment risks independently and for exercising independent judgment in determining whether investments are appropriate for their clients.
Follow First Trust:  
First Trust Portfolios L.P.  Member SIPC and FINRA. (Form CRS)   •  First Trust Advisors L.P. (Form CRS)
Home |  Important Legal Information |  Privacy Policy |  California Privacy Policy |  Business Continuity Plan |  FINRA BrokerCheck
Copyright © 2024 All rights reserved.