Home Logon FTA Investment Managers Blog Subscribe About Us Contact Us

Search by Ticker, Keyword or CUSIP       
 
 

Blog Home
   Brian Wesbury
Chief Economist
 
Bio
X •  LinkedIn
   Bob Stein
Deputy Chief Economist
Bio
X •  LinkedIn
 
  The ISM Manufacturing Index Increased to 55.7 in August from 55.4 in July
Posted Under: Data Watch • ISM
Supporting Image for Blog Post

 
Implications: A surprisingly strong report today for the ISM index, a measure of manufacturing sentiment around the country. The ISM came in at the highest level since June 2011, easily beating consensus expectations. In particular, the new orders index boomed in August, coming in at 63.2, the highest since April 2011. According to the Institute for Supply Management, an overall index level of 55.7 is consistent with real GDP growth of 4.2% annually. We don't expect real GDP will grow anywhere near that pace in Q3, probably more like a 1% to 1.5% rate instead, but we do expect that by late this year growth will pick up noticeably from the roughly 2% trend over the past few years. Although the production index declined to 62.4 for August, it remains its highest levels since early 2011. The employment index fell to 53.3 but this is no surprise and is consistent with the plow horse improvement we have been getting out of the labor market over the past few years. On the inflation front, the prices paid index rose to 54.0 in August from 49.0 in July. Still, little sign of inflation, but we don't expect this to last given loose monetary policy. In other news this morning, construction increased 0.6% in July (+1.9% including upward revisions for prior months). The gain in July was led by commercial construction, particularly manufacturing facilities, hotels, and malls. Apparently, companies think consumer spending is going to accelerate. The upward revisions for prior months suggest real GDP grew at 2.7% annual rate in Q2, not the 2.5% reported last week.

Click here for a PDF version
Posted on Tuesday, September 3, 2013 @ 10:35 AM • Post Link Print this post Printer Friendly

These posts were prepared by First Trust Advisors L.P., and reflect the current opinion of the authors. They are based upon sources and data believed to be accurate and reliable. Opinions and forward looking statements expressed are subject to change without notice. This information does not constitute a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any security.
Search Posts
 PREVIOUS POSTS
Personal Income and Personal Consumption Increased 0.1% in July
Real GDP Was Revised to a 2.5% Annual Growth Rate in Q2
Who Can Normalize the Fed?
New Orders for Durable Goods Dropped 7.3% in July
Summers For Fed Chair
New Single-Family Home Sales Declined 13.4% in July to a 394,000 Annual Rate
Existing Home Sales Rose 6.5% in July to a 5.39 Million Annual Rate
Part-Timers and the Labor Market
A Bear Market Is Here: In Bonds!
Nonfarm Productivity Increased at a 0.9% Annual Rate in the Second Quarter
Archive
Skip Navigation Links.
Expand 20242024
Expand 20232023
Expand 20222022
Expand 20212021
Expand 20202020
Expand 20192019
Expand 20182018
Expand 20172017
Expand 20162016
Expand 20152015
Expand 20142014
Expand 20132013
Expand 20122012
Expand 20112011
Expand 20102010

Search by Topic
Skip Navigation Links.

 
The information presented is not intended to constitute an investment recommendation for, or advice to, any specific person. By providing this information, First Trust is not undertaking to give advice in any fiduciary capacity within the meaning of ERISA, the Internal Revenue Code or any other regulatory framework. Financial professionals are responsible for evaluating investment risks independently and for exercising independent judgment in determining whether investments are appropriate for their clients.
Follow First Trust:  
First Trust Portfolios L.P.  Member SIPC and FINRA. (Form CRS)   •  First Trust Advisors L.P. (Form CRS)
Home |  Important Legal Information |  Privacy Policy |  California Privacy Policy |  Business Continuity Plan |  FINRA BrokerCheck
Copyright © 2024 All rights reserved.