Home   Logon   Mobile Site   Research and Commentary   About Us   Call 1.800.621.1675 or Email Us       Follow Us: 

Search by Ticker, Keyword or CUSIP       

Blog Home
   Brian Wesbury
Chief Economist
Click for Bio
Follow Brian on Twitter Follow Brian on LinkedIn View Videos on YouTube
   Bob Stein
Deputy Chief Economist
Click for Bio
Follow Bob on Twitter Follow Bob on LinkedIn View Videos on YouTube
  Industrial Production Increased 0.2% in November
Posted Under: Data Watch • Industrial Production - Cap Utilization
Supporting Image for Blog Post


Implications:  Industrial production returned to more moderate growth in November after an October surge that was the fastest monthly gain since 2010.  The headline series rose 0.2% in November and is now up 3.4% in the past year, the fastest growth for any twelve-month period since 2013-14.  Without a 2% gain in mining – a rebound after Hurricane Nate held down oil and gas extraction in October – overall industrial production would have been flat for the month, according to the Federal Reserve.  But it would still be up more than 3% from a year ago, so the trend remains solid.  Manufacturing, which rose 0.2% in November has undergone a major shift.  Back in November 2016, automobile manufacturing was up 4.2% from the prior year while non-auto manufacturing was down 0.1%.  Now those numbers have reversed, with auto manufacturing up only 0.1% in the past year while non-auto manufacturing is up 2.6%.  This demonstrates that the revival of manufacturing outside the auto sector in the US hasn't been all talk.  The strength was also reflected in capacity utilization in the manufacturing sector, which remains at the highest level since 2008.  The biggest dark spot in today's report came from utilities, which fell 1.9% in November.  But that part of production is very dependent on weather and should bounce back in the months ahead.  Notably, although oil and gas extraction rebounded in November, oil and gas-well drilling continued to struggle, falling 3.4% in November.  However, its monthly declines have started leveling off after plummeting following the storms and it is still up a massive 50% from a year ago.  Look for a surge in drilling activity in the months ahead as the last effects of the storms pass.  In other news this morning, the Empire State index, a measure of manufacturing sentiment in New York, fell to a still high 18 in December from 19.4 in November.  Plugging today's data into our models suggest real GDP growth in Q3 of 3.3%, no different than reported a month ago, and that the economy is growing at a 3.0% rate in Q4.   

Click here for PDF version 

Posted on Friday, December 15, 2017 @ 11:47 AM • Post Link Share: 
Print this post Printer Friendly

These posts were prepared by First Trust Advisors L.P., and reflect the current opinion of the authors. They are based upon sources and data believed to be accurate and reliable. Opinions and forward looking statements expressed are subject to change without notice. This information does not constitute a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any security.
The information presented is not intended to constitute an investment recommendation for, or advice to, any specific person. By providing this information, First Trust is not undertaking to give advice in any fiduciary capacity within the meaning of ERISA, the Internal Revenue Code or any other regulatory framework. Financial professionals are responsible for evaluating investment risks independently and for exercising independent judgment in determining whether investments are appropriate for their clients.
First Trust Portfolios L.P.  Member SIPC and FINRA. (Form CRS)   •  First Trust Advisors L.P. (Form CRS)
Home |  Important Legal Information |  Privacy Policy |  California Privacy Policy |  Business Continuity Plan |  FINRA BrokerCheck
Copyright © 2023 All rights reserved.