Home Logon FTA Investment Managers Blog Subscribe About Us Contact Us

Search by Ticker, Keyword or CUSIP       
 
 

Blog Home
   Brian Wesbury
Chief Economist
 
Bio
X •  LinkedIn
   Bob Stein
Deputy Chief Economist
Bio
X •  LinkedIn
 
  Retail Sales Increased 0.1% in April
Posted Under: Data Watch • Retail Sales
Supporting Image for Blog Post

 

Implications: After booming in March, retail sales took a breather in April. Some of the volatility is probably due to the late Easter. The past four Easters around this late were in 2000, 2003, 2006, and 2011 and each had ex-auto sales well below where our models were forecasting after relatively good sales in March. In other words, it looks like the government has trouble seasonally-adjusting retail sales when Easter comes late. As a result, we think a better gauge of activity would be the average over the past two months which show retail sales up a strong 0.8%. Sales of autos led the way in April, growing 0.6%, and are up at a 30.7% annual rate in the past three months. "Core" sales, which exclude autos, building materials and gas, fell 0.2% in April. But core sales were revised up substantially in March and were up 0.3% including the revisions. These sales are a key input into the GDP data and it looks like "real" (inflation-adjusted) consumer spending, goods and services combined, will be revised slightly higher to around a 3.2% annual rate in Q1 versus an original government estimate of 3.0%. Weather still took a toll in Q1, but it looks like it showed up more in inventories. Due to new data on inventories and trade, we're now looking for a downward revision to Q1 real GDP growth to a -0.3% annual rate from an original estimate of +0.1%. In other news this morning, inflation remained tame in the trade sector. Import prices fell 0.4% in April and slipped 0.2% excluding oil. Both measures of import prices are down 0.3% in the past year. Export prices dropped 1% in April (-1.2% excluding agriculture). Export prices are essentially unchanged from a year ago. Look for signs of higher inflation later this week from both producer and consumer prices.

Click here for PDF version

Posted on Tuesday, May 13, 2014 @ 10:57 AM • Post Link Print this post Printer Friendly

These posts were prepared by First Trust Advisors L.P., and reflect the current opinion of the authors. They are based upon sources and data believed to be accurate and reliable. Opinions and forward looking statements expressed are subject to change without notice. This information does not constitute a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any security.
 
The information presented is not intended to constitute an investment recommendation for, or advice to, any specific person. By providing this information, First Trust is not undertaking to give advice in any fiduciary capacity within the meaning of ERISA, the Internal Revenue Code or any other regulatory framework. Financial professionals are responsible for evaluating investment risks independently and for exercising independent judgment in determining whether investments are appropriate for their clients.
Follow First Trust:  
First Trust Portfolios L.P.  Member SIPC and FINRA. (Form CRS)   •  First Trust Advisors L.P. (Form CRS)
Home |  Important Legal Information |  Privacy Policy |  California Privacy Policy |  Business Continuity Plan |  FINRA BrokerCheck
Copyright © 2024 All rights reserved.