Home   Logon   Mobile Site   Research and Commentary   About Us   Call 1.800.621.1675 or Email Us       Follow Us: 

Search by Ticker, Keyword or CUSIP       
 
 

Blog Home
   Brian Wesbury
Chief Economist
 
Click for Bio
Follow Brian on Twitter Follow Brian on LinkedIn View Videos on YouTube
   Bob Stein
Deputy Chief Economist
Click for Bio
Follow Bob on Twitter Follow Bob on LinkedIn View Videos on YouTube
 
  The ISM Manufacturing Index Increased to 54.9 in April
Posted Under: Data Watch • ISM

 
Implications: Following temperatures, the ISM index, a measure of manufacturing sentiment around the country, continued to move higher in April. The index now shows manufacturing activity expanding at the fastest pace since the end of 2013, with seventeen of the eighteen manufacturing industries surveyed reporting growth in April. While not quite back to the levels we saw in mid-to-late 2013, the index has stood in expansion territory for eleven consecutive months, and we expect the index to continue to show strength as companies ramp up production and make up for time lost to bad weather. According to the Institute for Supply Management, an overall index level of 54.9 is consistent with real GDP growth of 3.9% annually. While yesterday's Q1 GDP report showed real growth at a tepid 0.1%, we expect to see a strong rebound in Q2. On the inflation front, the prices paid index fell to 56.5 in April from 59.0 in March. Still, little sign of inflation, but we don't expect this to last given loose monetary policy. The employment index jumped to 54.7 in April from 51.1 in March. Plugging today's data into our models, our forecast for tomorrow's employment report are solid gains of 231,000 and 232,000 for nonfarm and private payrolls, respectively. In other news this morning, construction increased 0.2% in March. The gain in March was primarily due to a rise in home building offsetting a decline in government construction of schools and colleges. However, revisions for January and February were negative. As a result, it now looks like real GDP shrank at a 0.1% annual rate in Q1 versus the official report yesterday that it grew at a 0.1% rate. Either way, Q1 is in the rear-view mirror and real GDP is set to accelerate sharply in Q2.

Click here for a PDF version
Posted on Thursday, May 1, 2014 @ 11:21 AM • Post Link Share: 
Print this post Printer Friendly

These posts were prepared by First Trust Advisors L.P., and reflect the current opinion of the authors. They are based upon sources and data believed to be accurate and reliable. Opinions and forward looking statements expressed are subject to change without notice. This information does not constitute a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any security.
 
The information presented is not intended to constitute an investment recommendation for, or advice to, any specific person. By providing this information, First Trust is not undertaking to give advice in any fiduciary capacity within the meaning of ERISA, the Internal Revenue Code or any other regulatory framework. Financial professionals are responsible for evaluating investment risks independently and for exercising independent judgment in determining whether investments are appropriate for their clients.
First Trust Portfolios L.P.  Member SIPC and FINRA. (Form CRS)   •  First Trust Advisors L.P. (Form CRS)
Home |  Important Legal Information |  Privacy Policy |  California Privacy Policy |  Business Continuity Plan |  FINRA BrokerCheck
Copyright © 2021 All rights reserved.