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  No Recession In High Frequency Data
Posted Under: Data Watch • Double Dip • Employment • Retail Sales
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After another week of monitoring high frequency indicators, it's clear there is no steep downturn in economic activity or a panicking consumer.  The table above shows the high frequency indicators we've been following, which provide the most up to date information about the economy.  From industrial and trade indicators like steel production and rail car traffic, to measures of consumer activity like weekly chain store sales and box office receipts, all have improved from last year and remain stable from week to week.  Initial claims have risen recently to 428,000 in the latest weekly reading.  However, this is within the range that claims have been in over the past three months.  The bottom line is that this level of weekly jobless claims is no where near a recessionary level. 

We have been following these high frequency indicators for over a month now, and it is obivous to us that, based on the data, there is no sign of a sharp downturn in the economy.  Despite gloom and doom from many pundits and wild swings in equity and bond markets, the economy is doing fine, and will continue to do just fine in the months ahead.
Posted on Friday, September 16, 2011 @ 2:22 PM • Post Link Print this post Printer Friendly

These posts were prepared by First Trust Advisors L.P., and reflect the current opinion of the authors. They are based upon sources and data believed to be accurate and reliable. Opinions and forward looking statements expressed are subject to change without notice. This information does not constitute a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any security.
The information presented is not intended to constitute an investment recommendation for, or advice to, any specific person. By providing this information, First Trust is not undertaking to give advice in any fiduciary capacity within the meaning of ERISA, the Internal Revenue Code or any other regulatory framework. Financial professionals are responsible for evaluating investment risks independently and for exercising independent judgment in determining whether investments are appropriate for their clients.
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