|
|
 |
|
|
|
|
Brian Wesbury
Chief Economist
|
|
Bob Stein
Deputy Chief Economist
|
|
 | Retail sales unchanged in August |
|
| Posted Under: Data Watch • Retail Sales |
Implications: Despite intense financial volatility, overall retail sales were essentially unchanged in August. This does not signal a recession and does not show any sign of a panic, like the one that took hold of consumers in late 2008. Sales are still up 7.2% versus a year ago and up 7.3% excluding autos, well higher than what we would expect if entering another recession. "Core" sales, which exclude autos, building materials, and gas, were up (+0.05%) in August – the eighth straight monthly increase – and are up 5.2% versus a year ago. Again, no sign of recession. Remember, even in years of solid economic growth, like 2003-04, on a monthly basis retail sales fall about one out of every four months. In other words, one month of flat or declining sales is not worrisome, as some would have you believe. As a confirmation of our view, we have been closely following high-frequency economic data. The newest data are yesterday's reports on chain-store sales, which show no sign of any major slowdown. Redbook Research says same-store sales are up 4.5% versus a year ago while the International Council of Shopping Centers says sales are up 3.3%. (These are same-store sales and cannot be directly compared to overall retail sales.) Meanwhile, given recent reports on construction, inventories, and trade, it looks like real GDP growth in Q2 will be revised up from a prior report of 1% to about 1.3%.
Click here to view the entire report.
|
|
|
These posts were prepared by First Trust Advisors L.P., and reflect the current opinion of the authors. They are based upon sources and data believed to be accurate and reliable. Opinions and forward looking statements expressed are subject to change without notice. This information does not constitute a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any security.
|
|
Archive
Search by Topic
|
|
|
The information presented is not intended to constitute an investment recommendation for, or advice to, any specific person. By providing this information, First Trust is not undertaking to give advice in any fiduciary capacity within the meaning of ERISA, the Internal Revenue Code or any other regulatory framework. Financial professionals are responsible for evaluating investment risks independently and for exercising independent judgment in determining whether investments are appropriate for their clients.
|