Home Logon FTA Investment Managers Blog Subscribe About Us Contact Us

Search by Ticker, Keyword or CUSIP       
 
 

Blog Home
   Brian Wesbury
Chief Economist
 
Bio
X •  LinkedIn
   Bob Stein
Deputy Chief Economist
Bio
X •  LinkedIn
 
  The Producer Price Index (PPI) Rose 0.1% in November
Posted Under: Inflation • PPI
Supporting Image for Blog Post

 
Implications:  Producer prices rose in November for a seventh consecutive month, and are up near the fastest six-month annualized pace in nearly a decade at 3.8%, a sharp rebound from the -3.5% annualized pace for the six months ending in April.  Prices for goods pushed the index higher, while prices for services were unchanged on the month.  Digging into the details shows that a key contributor to the November rise came from final demand energy, up 1.2%, led by a surge in the cost for diesel fuels as well as a bump in costs for natural gas and electricity.  The typically volatile food category also showed a notable rise, up 0.5% in November on the back of higher costs for meats and poultry.  Strip out the food and energy categories, and "core" producer prices still rose 0.1% in November.  Over recent months, the PPI has seen price pressure coming from transportation and warehousing services.  While this measure declined 0.9% in November, the pullback came from passenger transport (down 6.9% in November), while the transport and warehousing of goods rose 1.2%.  A continued shortage of delivery drivers – also noted across other economic reports including the ISM surveys – has put upward price pressure on costs.  Core producer prices are up a modest 1.4% over the past twelve months, but expect that to move higher in the months ahead.  Supply constraints, limitations on activity, and the general economic disruptions related to COVID-19 will continue to muddy the data for the foreseeable future, but what is clear is the massive increase in the M2 money supply, up 25.1% in the past year.  Once the dust finally settles – and it will – we expect inflation to trend back to 2% and then higher.  The Federal Reserve is loose and, as it has made abundantly clear, plans to stay that way for the foreseeable future. Meanwhile, businesses operating at limited capacity will remain a headwind for economic activity.  The result will eventually be too much money chasing too few goods (and services), meaning higher – but not hyper – inflation.  Further down the pipeline, prices for intermediate demand processed goods rose 1.4% in November, while intermediate demand unprocessed goods rose 7.3%.  While intermediate processed goods prices are still down 0.3% from a year ago, they have been trending higher on a year-ago basis since April, when they were down 7.6% from April 2019.  Intermediate unprocessed goods turned positive on a year-to-year basis (+0.6%) in November for the first time since late 2018, and have shown significant movement since bottoming at a 28.7% 12-month decline back in April.  We still have a long way to go to get back to where we were at the start of 2020, and the next few months may be a bit rocky as we deal with rising COVID-19 cases over the winter, but the recovery is clearly under way, and we expect growth will march higher in the year ahead.

Click here for a PDF version
Posted on Friday, December 11, 2020 @ 12:36 PM • Post Link Print this post Printer Friendly

These posts were prepared by First Trust Advisors L.P., and reflect the current opinion of the authors. They are based upon sources and data believed to be accurate and reliable. Opinions and forward looking statements expressed are subject to change without notice. This information does not constitute a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any security.
Search Posts
 PREVIOUS POSTS
COVID-19 Tracker 12/10/2020
Coronavirus High Frequency Data 12/10/2020
The Consumer Price Index Rose 0.2% in November
Coronavirus High Frequency Data 12/08/2020
2021: Robust Growth, Higher Inflation
M2 and C&I Loan Growth
Nonfarm Payrolls Rose 245,000 in November
The Trade Deficit in Goods and Services Came in at $63.1 billion in October
COVID-19 Tracker 12/3/2020
The ISM Non-Manufacturing Index Declined to 55.9 in November
Archive
Skip Navigation Links.
Expand 20242024
Expand 20232023
Expand 20222022
Expand 20212021
Expand 20202020
Expand 20192019
Expand 20182018
Expand 20172017
Expand 20162016
Expand 20152015
Expand 20142014
Expand 20132013
Expand 20122012
Expand 20112011
Expand 20102010

Search by Topic
Skip Navigation Links.

 
The information presented is not intended to constitute an investment recommendation for, or advice to, any specific person. By providing this information, First Trust is not undertaking to give advice in any fiduciary capacity within the meaning of ERISA, the Internal Revenue Code or any other regulatory framework. Financial professionals are responsible for evaluating investment risks independently and for exercising independent judgment in determining whether investments are appropriate for their clients.
Follow First Trust:  
First Trust Portfolios L.P.  Member SIPC and FINRA. (Form CRS)   •  First Trust Advisors L.P. (Form CRS)
Home |  Important Legal Information |  Privacy Policy |  California Privacy Policy |  Business Continuity Plan |  FINRA BrokerCheck
Copyright © 2024 All rights reserved.