Home Logon FTA Investment Managers Blog Subscribe About Us Contact Us

Search by Ticker, Keyword or CUSIP       
 
 
 
Blog Home
Bob Carey
Chief Market Strategist
Bio
X •  LinkedIn
 

  U.S. Dollar Strength & China Slowdown Help Push Commodity Prices Lower
Posted Under: Commodities
Supporting Image for Blog Post

 

View from the Observation Deck 

  1. While today's blog post focuses on the negative influences that a strengthening U.S. dollar and the tempering of economic growth in China have had on commodity prices since mid-2014, we acknowledge that other influences, such as production levels, can also influence prices.
  2. From 6/30/14 (rally in the U.S. dollar commenced) through 12/8/15, the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) posted a gain of 23.43%, compared to a decline of 42.45% for the Thomson Reuters/CoreCommodity CRB Commodity Index (see chart), according to Bloomberg.
  3. Jodie Gunzberg, global head of commodities at S&P Dow Jones Indices, has noted that a strong U.S. dollar can depress commodity prices because goods priced in dollars become more expensive for other currencies, according to Business Insider.
  4. Gunzberg points out that the dollar's influence on commodity prices does vary by type. Over time, the dollar has tended to have much more of an impact on the direction of crude oil prices than the price of sugar, for example. 
  5. With respect to basic metals, such as copper, 60% of the variance in metal prices can be explained by fluctuations in China's industrial production, according to research released in October 2015 by the International Monetary Fund.
  6. China accounts for 49% of global demand for base metals, according to Bloomberg.
  7. China, which is the world's second largest economy, reported a real GDP growth rate of 6.9% (year-over-year) in Q3'15, according to Bloomberg. The last time that GDP growth was below the 7.0% mark for a quarter was Q1'09.
  8. China's government is seeking to transition from a manufacturing-based to a services-based economy, according to The Diplomat. China's slower growth climate has resulted in China purchasing fewer commodities than in past years.

This chart is for illustrative purposes only and not indicative of any actual investment. The illustration excludes the effects of taxes and brokerage commissions or other expenses incurred when investing. Investors cannot invest directly in an index. The Thomson Reuters/CoreCommodity CRB Commodity Index is an average of commodity futures prices with monthly rebalancing, while the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) indicates the general international value of the U.S. dollar relative to a basket of major world currencies.

To Download a PDF of this post, please click here.

Posted on Thursday, December 10, 2015 @ 12:51 PM • Post Link Print this post Printer Friendly

These posts were prepared by First Trust Advisors L.P., and reflect the current opinion of the authors. They are based upon sources and data believed to be accurate and reliable. Opinions and forward looking statements expressed are subject to change without notice. This information does not constitute a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any security.
Search Posts
MARKET ANALYSIS
Market Commentary and Analysis
Market Commentary Video
Monthly Talking Points
Quarterly Newsletter
Market Observations
Subscribe To Receive Email
 


 PREVIOUS POSTS
Sector Performance Can Vary Dramatically Based On Market Capitalization
The Current Bull Market Is The 3rd Longest
Many Investors Could Be Underweight Mid- & Small-Cap Stocks
A Snapshot of Growth vs. Value Investing
A November Flight to Safety
Slower Economic Growth Has Negatively Impacted Emerging Markets Equities
Micro-Caps Have Been The Sweet Spot In The Small-Cap Space
Snapshot Of Bond Valuations
S&P 500 Index Top-Line Growth Estimates
A Snapshot Of European Equities
Archive
Skip Navigation Links.
Expand 20242024
Expand 20232023
Expand 20222022
Expand 20212021
Expand 20202020
Expand 20192019
Expand 20182018
Expand 20172017
Expand 20162016
Expand 20152015
Expand 20142014
Expand 20132013
Expand 20122012
Expand 20112011

Search by Topic
Skip Navigation Links.

 
The information presented is not intended to constitute an investment recommendation for, or advice to, any specific person. By providing this information, First Trust is not undertaking to give advice in any fiduciary capacity within the meaning of ERISA, the Internal Revenue Code or any other regulatory framework. Financial professionals are responsible for evaluating investment risks independently and for exercising independent judgment in determining whether investments are appropriate for their clients.
Follow First Trust:  
First Trust Portfolios L.P.  Member SIPC and FINRA. (Form CRS)   •  First Trust Advisors L.P. (Form CRS)
Home |  Important Legal Information |  Privacy Policy |  California Privacy Policy |  Business Continuity Plan |  FINRA BrokerCheck
Copyright © 2024 All rights reserved.