Home Logon FTA Investment Managers Blog Subscribe About Us Contact Us

Search by Ticker, Keyword or CUSIP       
Blog Home
Bob Carey
Chief Market Strategist
X •  LinkedIn

  Job & Economic Growth Could Drive Auto Sales Higher
Posted Under: Conceptual Investing
Supporting Image for Blog Post

View from the Observation Deck 
  1. March's U.S. nonfarm payroll number will be released tomorrow. Bloomberg's survey of top economists produced a consensus estimate of 200,000 new hires. 
  2. That target is slightly above the 187,540 monthly average posted over the past 12 months, but still below the 250,000-plus economists believe is needed to make a serious dent in unemployment.
  3. While relatively modest, the pace of job growth in this recovery has been sufficient enough to date to jumpstart a recovery in U.S. auto sales (see chart), in our opinion. 
  4. The chart clearly indicates the negative impact that the financial crisis in 2008 had on auto sales as well as the number of miles driven annually in the U.S.
  5. While the chart only depicts the period from 2000 through 2013, from 1988 through 2007, the number of miles driven annually in the U.S. increased in every one of those 20 calendar years. 
  6. Total U.S. auto sales have rebounded off of their financial crisis monthly low point of 9.04 million (annualized) in Q1'09. Auto sales closed December 2013 (see chart) at an annualized pace of 15.36 million.
  7. The severe weather this winter season may have been depressing sales to some degree. March 2014's sales came in at an annualized pace of 16.33 million. Sales averaged nearly 17.0  million from 2004-2005.
  8. With Europe exiting its recession and with the U.S. GDP growth rate expected to climb from 2.1% in 2013 to 2.8% (National Association for Business Economics) in 2014, we believe auto sales are likely headed higher.
This chart is for illustrative purposes only and not indicative of any actual investment. There can be no assurance that any of the projections cited will occur. 

To Download a PDF of this post, please click here.
Posted on Thursday, April 3, 2014 @ 1:45 PM • Post Link Print this post Printer Friendly

These posts were prepared by First Trust Advisors L.P., and reflect the current opinion of the authors. They are based upon sources and data believed to be accurate and reliable. Opinions and forward looking statements expressed are subject to change without notice. This information does not constitute a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any security.
Search Posts
Market Commentary and Analysis
Market Commentary Video
Monthly Talking Points
Quarterly Newsletter
Market Observations
Subscribe To Receive Email

Biotechnology Ranked 2nd In Funding From Venture Capitalists For 3rd Year In A Row in 2013
The V-Shaped Recovery In Stock Dividends Is Now A Check Mark
A Look at the 2nd Quarter
It’s Back To The Future With Dividend-Paying Stocks
Rebound In Agriculture Prices Right On Cue
S&P 500 Top-Line Growth Estimates
Individual versus Institutional Investors
I’ll Just Have Water, Thank You
Passive Investment Vehicles Continue To Post Big Gains In Asset Growth
Happy 5th Anniversary to the Bull Market
Skip Navigation Links.
Search by Topic
Skip Navigation Links.

The information presented is not intended to constitute an investment recommendation for, or advice to, any specific person. By providing this information, First Trust is not undertaking to give advice in any fiduciary capacity within the meaning of ERISA, the Internal Revenue Code or any other regulatory framework. Financial professionals are responsible for evaluating investment risks independently and for exercising independent judgment in determining whether investments are appropriate for their clients.
Follow First Trust:  
First Trust Portfolios L.P.  Member SIPC and FINRA. (Form CRS)   •  First Trust Advisors L.P. (Form CRS)
Home |  Important Legal Information |  Privacy Policy |  California Privacy Policy |  Business Continuity Plan |  FINRA BrokerCheck
Copyright © 2024 All rights reserved.