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Monday Morning Outlook
May 2024
5/13/2024Would Trump Reignite Inflation?
5/6/2024The Fed Faithful
April 2024
4/29/2024The Worst Malinvestment
4/22/2024Continued Growth in Q1
4/15/2024Elections Matter
4/8/2024Is the Fed Tight, or Not?
4/1/2024The Fed Audit
March 2024
3/25/2024Welcome to State-Run Capitalism
3/18/2024Focused on the Fed
3/11/2024Is the Job Market Really That Strong?
3/4/2024Is a Debt Spiral Already Here?
February 2024
2/26/2024Watching the Fed
2/20/2024January Stagflation
2/12/2024CBO’s Rosy Scenario
2/5/2024Labor Market Not Adding Up
January 2024
1/29/2024A Stock Market Conundrum
1/22/2024Slower Growth in Q4, But No Recession
1/16/2024Budgets And Governing
1/8/2024Low Quality Growth
1/2/2024The Housing Outlook: 2024
December 2023
12/26/2023A Mild Recession and S&P 4,500
12/18/2023Greedy Innkeeper or Generous Capitalist?
12/11/2023What Should the Fed Do? How About Nothing?
12/4/2023Disinflation, Not Deflation
November 2023
11/27/2023Argentina: Is the Pendulum Swinging, Again?
11/20/2023Consumer Spending Set for Slower Growth
11/13/2023The Election Outlook is a Tax Outlook
11/6/2023Government Is Too Darn Big
October 2023
10/30/2023It’s the Same Bear Market
10/23/2023Growth Surge in Q3 Masks Weak Trend
10/16/2023Big Government Weighing on Growth
10/9/2023Crisis Management Government Leads to No Good
10/2/2023Tax Policy Outlook
September 2023
9/25/2023Don’t Fall for the Q3 Head-Fake
9/18/2023Higher Rates & A Shutdown On The Menu
9/11/2023Our Stagflationary Future
9/5/2023Fiscal Madness
August 2023
8/28/2023Stocks Look Pricey
8/21/2023Where is the Economy?
8/14/2023An Age of Fiscal Limits
8/7/2023Here’s Something to “Fitch” About
July 2023
7/31/2023Not All Recession Theories Make Sense
7/24/2023Still Growing
7/17/2023Has the Inflation Threat Passed?
7/10/2023Still Overvalued
7/3/2023The Red, White, and Blue Swan
June 2023
6/26/2023Burns or Volcker?
6/20/2023Is the Recession Threat Dead?
6/12/2023It’s Still About the Money
6/5/2023Jobs With Little Growth Means Less Productivity
May 2023
5/30/2023Discount the Happy Talk
5/22/2023Agents of Change?
5/15/2023Battle of the Budget
5/8/2023Bank Problems Aren’t Over, But It’s Not 2008
5/1/2023All Eyes on the Fed
April 2023
4/24/2023Closer to a Turning Point
4/17/2023January Surge Kept Q1 Positive
4/10/2023How to Lose Reserve Currency Status
4/3/2023Still Bearish
March 2023
3/27/2023The Fed Waffles
3/20/2023Heading Toward a National Bank?
3/13/2023Ignore the Crazy
3/6/2023What Happened to the Recession?
February 2023
2/27/2023Hard Landing, Soft Landing, or No Landing
2/21/2023Monetary Mayhem Clouds Crystal Ball
2/13/2023January Data Get Hot
2/6/2023The Game Isn’t Over
January 2023
1/30/2023Debt Limit Drama
1/23/2023Rearview Mirror OK, Collision Ahead
1/17/2023Soft Landing?
1/9/2023Not Goldilocks
1/3/2023The Housing Outlook for 2023
December 2022
12/23/2022Greedy Innkeeper or Generous Capitalist?
12/19/2022Still Unprecedented
12/12/2022S&P 3,900 – Dow 33,000
12/5/2022A Plow Horse With Shin Splints
November 2022
11/28/2022This Rally Shouldn’t Last
11/21/2022The Aftermath Economy
11/14/2022Democrats Overperform
11/7/2022Beware a “Gridlock Rally”
October 2022
10/31/2022Drop in Budget Deficit is a “Sugar High”
10/24/2022The Last Hurrah?
10/17/2022Second Thoughts on Bernanke’s Nobel Prize
10/10/2022Reports: Solid Growth, Persistent Inflation
10/3/2022No Recession, Yet
September 2022
9/26/2022More Trouble Ahead
9/19/2022Will Higher Interest Rates Tame Inflation?
9/12/2022The Fed: What to Expect and What to Watch
9/6/2022Home Prices Plateauing, Rents Catching Up
August 2022
8/29/2022Biden’s Student-Loan Fiasco
8/15/2022Silly Season
8/8/2022Tax Hikes: Bad, But Bearable
8/1/2022Monetary Muddle
July 2022
7/25/2022Still No Recession
7/18/2022Refocusing the Fed
7/11/2022Mortgage Reset Alarmism Is Off the Mark
7/5/2022How About More Freedom?
June 2022
6/27/2022We’re Not Already in a Recession
6/21/2022Respect the Bear
6/13/202250 or More?
6/6/2022No Hurricane, Yet
May 2022
5/31/2022The Outlook for November
5/16/2022Recession Unlikely in 2022
5/9/2022Reducing Our Stock Market Forecasts
5/2/2022Whipping Inflation
April 2022
4/25/2022Focus on the Money, Not Rates
4/18/2022Slower Growth in Q1
4/11/2022Housing: Heartburn, Not a Heart Attack
4/4/2022We Are All Keynesians Now
March 2022
3/28/2022Inflation Games
3/21/2022What the Fed “Should” Do
3/14/2022It’s the Money
3/7/2022Will Russian Sanctions Lead China to Sell US Debt?
February 2022
2/28/2022Thoughts on Ukraine
2/22/2022Sticking to Our Targets, For Now
2/14/2022Russia and Rate Hikes
2/7/2022Not All That
January 2022
1/31/2022Rate Hikes Finally on the Way
1/24/2022The 2021 Finish: Fast Growth, High Inflation
1/18/2022Who Gets the Blame for Inflation
1/10/2022Job Market Making Progress
1/3/2022Welcome to 2022: The Winds of Change
December 2021
12/23/2021Greedy Innkeeper or Generous Capitalist?
12/20/20212022: Moderate GDP, Persistent Inflation
12/13/2021S&P 5,250 – Dow 40,000
12/6/2021Volatility and Fear
November 2021
11/29/2021Riding the COVID Rollercoaster
11/22/2021Thankful, But Watchful
11/15/2021Inflation Returns
11/8/2021Tuesday Results and the 2022 Economic Outlook
11/1/2021Eyes on the Fed
October 2021
10/25/2021Slower Growth in Q3
10/18/2021Respect Millennials
10/11/2021Focus on Data, Not Spin
10/4/2021The Cost of Lockdowns
September 2021
9/27/2021Less Government, More Employment
9/20/2021Resist Inflation Complacency
9/13/2021Stocks Versus the Economy
9/7/2021Can the US “Fully Recover”?
August 2021
8/23/2021Fed Being Tempted Into SIN
8/16/2021Capitalism vs. Socialism
8/9/2021Projecting Government
8/2/2021The Seeds of Stagflation
July 2021
7/26/2021Inflation, Shutdowns, Spending
7/19/2021Strong Growth in Q2
7/12/20214,500…Or Higher
7/6/2021“Twin Deficits” Won’t Tank the Dollar
June 2021
6/28/2021Who Will Be the Next Fed Chief?
6/21/2021The "Fake Tight" Labor Market
6/14/2021Taper Tantrum Two?
6/7/2021There’s Nothing Normal About This Recovery
6/1/2021Inflation Revisionism
May 2021
5/24/2021A Question for the Fed
5/10/2021Biden and Powell Versus Summers and Dudley
5/3/2021Resisting the Budget Blowout
April 2021
4/26/2021The Sugar High Economy
4/19/2021Yes, Stocks Are Still Cheap
4/12/2021Housing Boom to Continue
4/5/2021Jobs Are Booming
March 2021
3/29/2021Tax Hikes Are Coming
3/22/2021The Fed, Regulation, and MMT - Irresponsible
3/15/2021Inflation and The Fed
3/8/2021The Fed Can’t Fix COVID Lockdowns
3/1/2021Powell Disses Uncle Milty
February 2021
2/22/2021Overstimulation on the Way
2/16/2021It’s Not a Bubble
2/8/2021The Return of Inflation
2/1/2021AOC and Ted Cruz, Agree!
January 2021
1/25/2021Can Massive Deficits Really Be Financed?
1/19/2021Growth Continued in Q4
1/11/2021Elections Have Tax Consequences
1/4/2021Keeping Good State Policies
December 2020
12/28/2020Inflation, Debt, MMT, and Bitcoin
12/21/2020Greedy Innkeeper or Generous Capitalist?
12/14/2020Stimulus, Bailouts, and the Fed
12/7/20202021: Robust Growth, Higher Inflation
November 2020
11/30/2020S&P 4,200 - Dow 35,000
11/23/2020Mnuchin, Powell and the Georgia Elections
11/16/2020Giving Thanks, Double Dip Unlikely
11/9/2020No Wave is Good News For Stocks
11/2/2020No More Lockdowns
October 2020
10/26/2020Economy Poised for More Growth
10/19/2020GDP Soars in Third Quarter
10/12/2020Profits Poised for Growth
10/5/2020The Fed Gambles on Inflation
September 2020
9/28/2020Full Recovery Requires Reopening
9/21/2020The Long Slog Recovery!
9/14/2020Inflation and the Fed
9/8/2020Positive Policies to Cut the Debt Burden
August 2020
8/31/2020S&P 500 3650, Dow 32,500
8/24/2020The Housing Revival
8/17/2020Biden’s Tax Hike Agenda
8/10/2020A Healing Economy
8/3/2020Don’t Play GDP Politics
July 2020
7/27/2020The Bottom Fell Out
7/20/2020There’s No Such Thing As A Free Lunch
7/13/2020Holding Colleges Accountable
7/6/2020The Economy and The Virus
June 2020
6/29/2020Not Locking Down
6/22/2020Saving and the Shutdown
6/15/2020The Fed is Committed to Low Rates
6/8/2020The Recession is Over
6/1/2020More Green Shoots
May 2020
5/26/2020Signs of Economic Life
5/18/2020How Are We Going To Pay For All This?
5/11/2020S&P 3100, Dow 25750
5/4/2020Light at the End of the Tunnel
April 2020
4/27/2020GDP: Bad, And Getting Worse
4/20/2020The Economy, Inflation, and Interest Rates
4/13/2020Job Destruction
4/6/2020Do the Least Harm
March 2020
3/30/2020The Coronavirus Threat
3/23/2020The Coronavirus Contraction
3/16/2020Fed Fires Bazooka at Coronavirus
3/9/2020A Coronavirus Recession?
3/2/2020Fed Should Be Decisive
February 2020
2/24/2020Yes, There Was a Housing Bubble, But Not Now
2/18/2020Lessons from Japan?
2/10/2020Jobs, Coronavirus, and the Budget
2/3/2020No Need for Fed Rescue
January 2020
1/27/2020Look for Steadiness from the Fed
1/21/2020Moderate Growth in Q4
1/13/2020The Gift That Keeps Giving
1/6/2020Blame the Overweight Jockey
December 2019
12/30/2019The Expansion Continues
12/23/2019Greedy Innkeeper or Generous Capitalist?
12/16/2019S&P 3650, Dow 32500
12/9/2019Good News is Good News
12/2/2019Don’t Worry About the US Consumer
November 2019
11/25/2019Giving Thanks
11/18/2019Long Live the Bull Market
11/11/2019Income Inequality, Taxation, and Redistribution
11/4/2019No Recession on the Horizon
October 2019
10/28/2019Another Fed Rate Cut on the Way
10/21/2019More Tepid GDP Growth in Q3
10/14/2019Trade Clouds Parting
10/7/2019Labor Market Continues to Roar
September 2019
9/30/2019Repo Turmoil
9/23/2019Fear the Spending, Not the Debt
9/16/2019We’re All Keynesians Now
9/9/2019Rorschach Economics
9/3/2019Labor Days
August 2019
8/26/2019Business Uncertainty
8/19/2019This Is Not 2008
8/12/2019Those Crazy Negative Interest Rates
8/5/2019The Flailing Fed
July 2019
7/29/2019Solid GDP Report
7/22/2019Temporary Tepid Growth for Q2
7/15/2019Farewell to Data Dependence
7/8/2019Lifting Our Target for Stock Prices
7/1/2019The Longest Expansion
June 2019
6/24/2019This Crazy Rate Cut
6/17/2019Better Signs
6/10/2019No Need for Rate Cuts
6/3/2019The Plow Horse Returns?
May 2019
5/28/2019Foreign Slowness Not an Obstacle
5/20/2019Don’t Count on a Rate Cut
5/13/2019Trade War Hysterics
5/6/2019The Big Picture and the Fed
April 2019
4/29/2019Good-bye Recession Fears
4/22/2019Resilient Economy
4/15/2019New Highs, Still a Buy
4/8/2019Economy on Very Solid Ground
4/1/2019Don’t Cut Rates, Cut Spending
March 2019
3/25/2019The Wizard of Oz
3/18/2019Buybacks Aren’t the Problem!
3/11/2019Ten Years Ago…
3/4/2019Spare Us the GDP Agony
February 2019
2/25/2019Don’t Fear a “Hard Brexit”
2/19/2019How TARP and QE Led to the “Green New Deal”
2/11/2019Where’s the Recession?
2/4/20192008 Myth and Reality
January 2019
1/28/2019Don't Obsess About the Fed
1/22/2019Solid Growth to Finish 2018
1/14/2019The Endless Debt Fret
1/7/2019No Sign of Recession
December 2018
12/31/2018Dow 28750, S&P 500 3100
12/21/2018Greedy Innkeeper or Generous Capitalist?
12/17/2018No Housing Bubble
12/10/2018The Long-Term Yield Conundrum
12/3/2018Scapegoating Powell
November 2018
11/26/2018Consumers Stay Strong
11/19/2018"Fading" Fiscal Stimulus; Really?
11/12/2018Fake Economics
11/5/2018The Plentiful Job Market
October 2018
10/29/2018Economy Rising
10/22/2018Robust Growth Continues
10/15/2018Heartburn, Not a Heart Attack
10/8/2018Powell Moves Markets
10/1/2018No Looming Recession
September 2018
9/24/2018Previewing the Fed
9/17/2018The Growing Deficit
9/10/2018Wage Growth Steps Up
9/4/2018The Week Ahead
August 2018
8/27/2018US Stops Subsidizing Global Growth
8/20/2018Capitalism Works, Don’t Change It
8/13/2018The Kevlar Economy
8/6/2018No Recipe for Weak Housing
July 2018
7/30/2018The Economic Surge
7/23/2018Economy Surges in Q2
7/16/2018Yield Curve Inversion
7/9/2018Job Market: From Strength to Strength
7/2/2018Election Outlook
June 2018
6/25/2018No More Kid Gloves
6/18/2018Bonds Misjudge The Future
6/11/2018Is 2020 the Year for Recession?
6/4/2018Jobs, Jobs, Jobs
May 2018
5/29/2018Higher Rates Won’t Cause Debt Spiral
5/21/2018Why Not 50?
5/14/2018Labor Market Strength
5/7/2018Don’t Compare Stocks to GDP
April 2018
4/30/20183% - Why It Doesn’t Matter
4/23/2018Modest Growth in Q1
4/16/2018Thoughts on Trade
4/9/2018A Generation of Interest Rate Illiterates
4/2/2018Ignoring the Invisible Hand
March 2018
3/26/2018When Volatility is Just Volatility
3/19/2018The Powell Fed: A New Era
3/12/2018Stay Invested: Economy Looks Good
3/5/2018Harleys, Bourbon & Denim
February 2018
2/26/2018Deficits, the Fed, and Rates
2/20/2018QE and Its Apologists
2/12/2018Snatching Slow Growth from the Jaws of Fast Growth
2/5/2018New Policies, New Path
January 2018
1/29/2018Clear Skies Ahead
1/22/2018No More Plow Horse
1/16/2018Don't Time a Correction
1/8/2018Bond Bull-Market Is Over
December 2017
12/21/2017Greedy Innkeeper or Generous Capitalist?
12/18/20172018: Dow 28,500, S&P 3100
12/11/2017The Fallacy of Weak Productivity
12/4/2017Don’t Fear Higher Interest Rates
November 2017
11/27/2017Consumer Fundamentals Are Strong
11/20/2017The Economy is Accelerating
11/13/2017Investing vs. Trading
11/6/2017Clearing a Path for Tax Reform
October 2017
10/30/2017"Continuity" At Fed, Not Best For Long-Term
10/23/2017Can We Afford a Tax Cut?
10/16/2017GDP Growth Looking Good
10/9/2017Longest Recovery Ever
10/2/2017Stocks Won
September 2017
9/25/2017Low Inflation Is No "Mystery"
9/18/2017Fed Preview
9/11/2017Time To Drain The Fed Swamp
9/5/2017Hurricane Economics
August 2017
8/28/2017Don’t Fret DC Debt Drama
8/21/2017Third Quarter Real GDP - 3.8%!
8/14/2017Consumers Are Doing Fine
8/7/2017"Shiller P-E" Still Wrong Signal
July 2017
7/31/2017Unfortunately, Still a Plow Horse
7/24/2017Moderate Growth for Q2
7/17/2017Hey Government: It’s Time to Get Serious!
7/10/2017Debt-Laden Companies? #FakeNews?
7/3/2017The Bull Keeps Running
June 2017
6/26/2017Stress Test Government
6/19/2017QE Didn’t Work
6/12/2017Less Loose
6/5/2017Long Housing, Short Autos
May 2017
5/30/2017We Don't See No Stinkin' Bubbles!
5/22/2017Tax Cut Politics
5/15/2017A Healthy US Consumer
5/8/2017Reasons to be Bullish
5/1/2017Prepare for Q2 GDP Surge
April 2017
4/24/2017France and the Euro
4/17/2017Still Plowing Away
4/10/2017This Recovery Isn't Boom or Bust
4/3/2017WSJ Leak: Fed May Shrink Balance Sheet
March 2017
3/27/2017The Fed is A Proxy for Government
3/20/2017Health Care: Free Markets vs Government
3/13/2017Robots Create Jobs, Don't Steal Them
3/6/2017Watch Reserves, Not Rates
February 2017
2/27/2017Trade Is Not Our Enemy
2/21/2017Time for a Rate Hike
2/13/2017Keep It Simple, Stupid (KISS)
2/6/2017Room to Grow
January 2017
1/30/2017Inflation Creeping Up
1/23/2017American Carnage?
1/17/2017Another Plow Horse Quarter
1/9/2017Big Government Causes Slow Growth
1/3/2017Watch the Spending
December 2016
12/27/20162017: Dow 23,750, S&P 2700
12/19/2016Greedy Innkeeper or Generous Capitalist?
12/12/2016Rally is Real, Not “Hope & Faith”
12/5/2016Caution on Dollar-Meddling
November 2016
11/28/2016Higher Rates Won't Crush Housing
11/21/2016Big Boom for Stocks
11/7/2016Don't Time the Election
October 2016
10/31/2016Brexit Redux?
10/24/2016Growth Stepping Up
10/17/2016Does Growth Kill or Is There No Growth?
10/10/2016Inflation Ready to Rise
10/3/2016Cut Spending to Grow Economy
September 2016
9/26/2016It’s Still the Fed, And It’s Not Magic
9/19/2016The Glass Half Empty
9/12/2016Fundamentals, Not Headlines
9/6/2016QE Is Not A Magic Elixir
August 2016
8/29/2016Bull Market Has Further to Run
8/22/2016Shut Out the Pessimists
8/15/2016Beware of Popular Narratives
8/8/2016All-Clear on the Economy
8/1/2016GDP Distortions
July 2016
7/25/2016Fed Policy Not in Tune With Data
7/18/2016Real GDP Accelerating
7/11/2016Ignore the Central Banks
7/5/2016Watch Earnings, Not Fearful Forecasts
June 2016
6/27/2016Uncertainty Not All Bad
6/20/2016Policy Stagnation
6/13/2016Why Does Japan Still Charge Taxes?
6/6/2016Brexit Is Freedom
May 2016
5/31/2016Greece is Already Bankrupt
5/23/2016Fed Teeing Up Rate Hike
5/16/2016Forget About Macy's
5/9/2016Job Report Overreaction
5/2/2016Apple vs The Fed
April 2016
4/25/2016OPEC and the Ash Heap of History
4/18/2016The Q1 Curse Strikes Again
4/11/2016The Bears Get Excited Again
4/4/2016Don't Short the Participation Rate!
March 2016
3/28/2016US Needs Sensible Debt Financing
3/21/2016Money Misperceptions
3/14/2016Don't Fear Consumer Debt
3/7/2016Beware Trade-Recession Scare Story
February 2016
2/29/2016Currency Mayhem
2/22/2016Velocity May Be Picking Up
2/16/2016No Sign of Recession in the Data
2/8/2016Want Faster Growth? Put the Jockey on a Diet!
2/1/2016Fed Not Going Away
January 2016
1/25/2016Q4: Sluggish Growth, No Recession
1/19/2016Fear is Overbought
1/4/2016We Remain Positive About 2016
December 2015
12/28/2015Let’s Try Again: S&P 2,375
12/21/2015Greedy Innkeeper or Generous Capitalist?
12/14/2015Panic, Punts and Reality
12/7/2015Respect the Auto Sales Surge
November 2015
11/30/2015Expect Strong Christmas Spending
11/23/2015Giving Thanks!
11/16/2015Rate Hikes Won't Cause Debt Spiral
11/9/2015Higher Rates, Higher Stocks
11/2/2015Light This Candle
October 2015
10/26/2015The Labor Market Mystery
10/19/2015GDP: Soft Headline, Solid Fundamentals
10/12/2015The Fed DID NOT Save the Economy
10/5/2015The Bull Market Still Lives
September 2015
9/28/2015A Shutdown Would Be Positive
9/21/2015The Uber-Dove vs Black Swans
9/14/2015The Fed: More Noise Than Meaning
9/8/2015Everything's Not Bad
August 2015
8/31/2015Markets Volatile, Economy Fine
8/24/2015This Correction is Technical, Not Fundamental
8/17/2015Financial System Healing
8/10/2015IMF Can't End Dollar's Reign
8/3/2015Even Garth Can't Argue About Liftoff
July 2015
7/27/2015GDP Rebounds in Q2
7/20/2015Tax Cuts on the Horizon
7/13/2015Politicians Should Stop Giving Investment Advice
7/6/2015End of an Era
June 2015
6/29/2015Ignore Greece
6/22/2015Stocks Are Still Cheap
6/15/2015Fed Will Kick The Can, But Shouldn't
6/8/2015Don't Deny The Jobs Recovery
6/1/2015Look Past Tainted GDP Report
May 2015
5/26/2015Inflation: Dormant, Not Dead
5/18/2015Taxes Culprit Behind Slow Sales
5/11/2015The Fed: Under Attack
5/4/2015@WSJopinion vs. @BenBernanke
April 2015
4/27/2015Where's the Hyper-Inflation?
4/20/2015Rear-View Mirror Shows Ugly Q1
4/13/2015June Rate Hike Still on Tap
4/6/2015Don't "Dread" The Plow Horse
March 2015
3/30/2015Rate Hikes Won't Kill Housing
3/23/2015Don't Fret Student Debt
3/16/2015Resist the Rate-Hike Huff
3/9/2015Good News is Still Good News
3/2/2015Fed Has Less Patience For ZIRP
February 2015
2/23/2015Strong Dollar: Good, Not Bad
2/17/2015QE and Currency Wars: A Theory With No Evidence
2/9/2015Dual Mandate Achieved: Rate Hikes Coming
2/2/2015Fooled By Extrapolation
January 2015
1/26/2015GDP, Strong Again
1/20/2015Davos - And the Euro
1/12/2015Bullish, For the Right Reasons
1/5/20152015: More Investment and Profits, Higher Rates, Dollar and Stocks
December 2014
12/29/2014Chicken Little Economics
12/22/2014Greedy Innkeeper or Generous Capitalist?
12/15/2014Oil Price: Looks Reasonable
12/8/2014The Myth of QE: Why Rates Are Headed Higher
12/1/2014Oil - Just Another Price
November 2014
11/24/2014Let's Finally Fix The CBO
11/17/2014Deflation Fears Are A Distraction
11/10/2014Change Is In The Air
11/3/2014QE: It Didn't Work
October 2014
10/27/2014Better Policies on the Horizon
10/20/2014Q3 Real GDP Still Looks Solid
10/13/2014Timing The Market Doesn't Work
10/6/2014Inflation: What Inflation?
September 2014
9/29/2014A Slight GOP Edge in the Mid-Terms
9/22/2014Two Sides to Every Coin
9/15/2014"Low" Foreign Rates Won't Keep US Rates From Rising
9/8/2014Why Do Stocks Keep Rising?
9/2/2014Labor's Great, Capital is Key
August 2014
8/25/2014Money Won't Be Tight For A Long Time
8/18/2014Jackson Hole: A Recipe for Inflation
8/11/2014Tight Money, Still A Long Way Off
8/4/2014Events vs. Data
July 2014
7/28/2014Tax Reform: The Real Anti-Inversion Solution
7/21/2014Plow Horse GDP Rebound in Q2
7/14/2014What if "Potential" is Just 1.5%?
7/7/2014New Career: Trashing Jobs #'s
June 2014
6/30/2014Two Species of Bear: Both Wrong
6/23/2014Dollar Ain't Losing Its Reserve Status
6/16/2014FATCA...More Fear-Mongering
6/9/2014The ECB Wants a Free Toaster
6/2/2014Housing Recovery Still on Track
May 2014
5/27/2014Dude, Don't Fret Q1 Drop in GDP
5/19/2014Can a "Perma-Bull" Turn Bearish?
5/12/2014Federal Reserve Gone Wild
5/5/2014Gary Becker, RIP
April 2014
4/28/2014Housing: Not As Bad As It Looks
4/21/2014Q1 GDP Frozen, Q2 Thawed
4/14/2014Lobbyist Rules
4/7/2014Plow Horse Gets De-Iced
March 2014
3/31/2014Repudiating Milton Friedman
3/24/2014Fed Funds Rate An Anachronism
3/17/2014No Extension Needed
3/10/2014All Hail the Bull Market
3/3/2014Ukraine Fears Temporary
February 2014
2/24/2014Housing - An Emotional Ride
2/18/2014Plow Horse Meets Polar Vortex
2/10/2014The Recovery Is Not A Sugar High
2/3/2014Keynes Just Didn't Get It
January 2014
1/27/2014"Risk Off" Trade Returns...Remain Calm
1/21/2014Q4 GDP - Stronger than Keynes Predicted
1/13/2014"New Bubble" Talk, Premature
1/6/2014Dow 19,500, S&P 500 2,150
December 2013
12/30/2013Plow Horse, Trotting
12/23/2013Greedy Innkeeper or Generous Capitalist?
12/16/2013The Time For Taper Has Come
12/9/2013Pessimists Get Desperate
12/2/2013Consumers Doing Fine
November 2013
11/25/2013QE: Not That Big of a Deal
11/18/2013Steady As She Goes
11/11/2013Taper Talk
11/4/2013More #PlowHorse in Q3
October 2013
10/28/2013Fear of Debt Spiral Misplaced
10/21/2013Smaller Government Won!
10/14/2013No Sign of Economic Problems
10/7/2013The Only Story in Town
September 2013
9/30/2013Shutdown: A Good Thing?
9/23/2013Loose and Looser
9/16/2013Doesn't Government Lie?
9/9/2013Possible Shutdown, No Default
9/3/2013The Bond Bear is Waking Up
August 2013
8/26/2013Summers For Fed Chair
8/19/2013A Bear Market Is Here: In Bonds!
8/12/2013"Shiller P-E" No Reason to Sell
8/5/2013Politicizing the Economy
July 2013
7/29/2013Get Ready for a Wild Week
7/22/2013More Plow Horse in Q2
7/15/2013Deficit? What Deficit?
7/8/2013Obamacare and Stocks
7/1/2013Watching Nominal GDP
June 2013
6/24/2013Back to Normal
6/17/2013Keynesian Model Blew It Again
6/10/2013Where's The Inflation?
6/3/2013Is QE Really THAT Important?
May 2013
5/28/2013Hey, Where is the Soft Patch?
5/20/2013Still Bullish
5/13/2013It's Not That Bad Out There
5/6/2013The QE-xcuse
April 2013
4/29/2013More Plow Horse Ahead
4/22/2013Guess What? Growth is Back!
4/15/2013Keynes And Retail Sales
4/8/2013Stockman's Sky is Falling
4/1/2013The "V" Is Complete
March 2013
3/25/2013Housing Recovery Still Young
3/18/2013Say "Thanks" to Barney Frank
3/11/2013The Plow Horse is Trotting
3/4/2013Rising Interest Rates Won't Cause Fiscal Armageddon
February 2013
2/25/2013Fed Will Make Excuses About Inflation
2/19/2013Don't Fear the Sequester
2/11/2013There the Bears Go Again
2/4/2013Optimism Is Winning
January 2013
1/28/2013Defending Mickelson
1/22/2013Ignore the GDP Headline
1/14/2013Dow 15,500
1/7/2013Outlook for 2013
December 2012
12/31/2012More Growth: Thank the Entrepreneur
12/21/2012Greedy Innkeeper or Generous Capitalist?
12/17/2012Fed Talks Louder, To Little Avail
12/10/2012Is QE4 Really Coming?
12/3/2012Temporary Weakness Won't Last
November 2012
11/26/2012Consumers Plow Ahead
11/19/2012The Cliff Ain't So Bad
11/12/2012Leaning Left
11/5/2012Election Matters, But Stocks are Cheap
October 2012
10/29/2012Velocity, Uncertainty & the Economy
10/22/2012More Plow Horse
10/15/2012The Romney Tax Plan
10/8/2012Thelma, Louise and the Fiscal Cliff
10/1/2012Recession Risk Rising
September 2012
9/24/2012Housing Recovery Still Young
9/17/2012QE3, For Now
9/10/2012Better Policy, Better Recovery
9/4/2012Still No Recession in Sight
August 2012
8/27/2012Still No QE3
8/20/2012Lengthen the Debt
8/13/2012The Romney-Ryan Achilles Heel
8/6/2012Why the Long Face?
July 2012
7/30/2012Heads, I Win, Tails, You Lose
7/23/2012Slow in Q2, But No Recession
7/16/2012Stocks are Really Cheap
7/9/2012Unemployment a Secular Problem
7/2/2012Freedom and Health
June 2012
6/25/2012The Second Step: Supreme Court
6/18/2012Should Germany Leave the Euro?
6/11/2012Bet Against QE3
6/4/2012Speeding Up the Plow Horse
May 2012
5/29/2012Is Obama a Big Spender?
5/21/2012The Plow Horse Rolls On
5/14/2012Let's Stress Test Governments
5/7/2012Dead Cat Bounce for Socialism
April 2012
4/30/2012Here We Go Again
4/23/2012The Plow Horse Economy
4/16/2012Still "On Your Own"
4/9/2012"On Your Own" Economics
4/2/2012Supremes Hear No Limiting Principle
March 2012
3/26/2012Heard the One About a "Fiscal Cliff"?
3/19/2012The Fed's March Madness
3/12/2012The Bears' Five Stages of Grief
3/5/2012Vive La France?
February 2012
2/27/2012Don’t Bet on a Correction
2/21/2012Stocks Rising, But Still Cheap
2/13/2012Be Confident in the Recovery
2/6/2012Despite Naysayers, The Recovery Is Real
January 2012
1/30/2012Fed Forecasts Depend on Data
1/23/2012Rally Not Built on Complacency
1/17/2012Q4 GDP - No Recession In Sight
1/9/2012Nonsense Arguments About Jobs
1/3/2012We Were Too Optimistic
December 2011
12/27/2011Was the 2011 Economy a Miracle?
12/19/2011Greedy Innkeeper or Generous Capitalist?
12/12/2011Obama's 8%: Sounds Right
12/5/2011Economy Improving, Stocks Cheap
November 2011
11/28/2011Occupy The Shopping Mall
11/21/2011What's So Special About America
11/14/2011Don't Fret the Foreign Stuff
11/7/2011Time to Raise the "Natural Rate"
October 2011
10/31/2011What's Going Right?
10/24/2011The Consumer Is Not Dead
10/17/2011Solid 3.5% Growth in Q3
10/10/2011The Economic Twilight Zone
10/3/2011Forecasts, Confidence and Facts
September 2011
9/26/2011A Whiff of Volcker
9/19/2011No Recession, No Panic
9/12/2011The Long Run is Now
9/6/2011Want Jobs? Have Faith.
August 2011
8/29/2011Stocks Undervalued by 65%
8/22/2011Europe, Not a Repeat of 2008
8/15/2011Fed Looking in Wrong Tool Shed
8/8/2011Focus on the Economy
8/1/2011GDP: Not As Bad As It Seems
July 2011
7/25/2011Hysteria and the Debt Debate
7/18/2011Looking Past a Weak Q2
7/11/2011Jobs Versus Government
7/5/2011Hasta La Vista, Soft Patch
June 2011
6/27/2011No, The US Is Not Greece
6/20/2011Inflation Now and Later
6/13/2011Soft Patch Already Fading
6/6/2011Economic Rapture?
May 2011
5/31/2011The "Unreal" Debate About Reality
5/23/2011Don't Sweat "Soft Patch II"
5/16/2011Public Policy Looking Better
5/9/2011Bulls Versus Bears, Again
5/2/2011Bernanke and the Teflon Fed
April 2011
4/25/2011The Greatest Speculators
4/18/2011GDP at 2%: Seventh Consecutive Quarter of Growth
4/11/2011Are Consumers Ignoring Soaring Commodity Prices?
4/4/2011The Taylor Rule Is Wrong
March 2011
3/28/2011The Shorts Get Whipsawed by the VIX
3/21/2011Japan, "Supply Shocks" and Money
3/14/2011It's A Natural Disaster, Not A Black Swan
3/7/2011Who Gets Credit For the Recovery?
February 2011
2/28/2011Stay Positive - It's The Right Thing To Do
2/22/2011Debt Limit Brinksmanship
2/14/2011The Federal Budget: It's a Mess
2/7/2011FASB Surrenders - America Wins
January 2011
1/31/2011Egypt, Dollars and History
1/24/2011US Politics - Cage Match Or Pillow Fight?
1/18/2011China and the Dollar
1/10/2011Government, the Anti-Stimulus
1/3/20112011: Dow 14,500, S&P 1575, 10-Year 4%
December 2010
12/27/2010First Trust Sees 4% Real GDP Growth in 2011
12/20/2010Greedy Innkeeper or Generous Capitalist?
12/13/2010It's A Good Deal
12/6/2010Elections Have Consequences
November 2010
11/29/2010It's a Self-Sustaining Recovery
11/22/2010Something to be Thankful For
11/15/2010Stocks Are Cheap, Bonds Are Not
11/8/2010No Soft Patch, No Excuse for QEII
11/1/2010Political Economics
October 2010
10/25/2010Beating Bridgewater's Big Bear Bet
10/18/2010Fed Ignores Gold, Targets Higher Inflation, and Plays With Fire
10/11/2010No More Steroids Needed
10/4/2010Emancipation From What...Capitalism?
September 2010
9/27/2010The Myth and Mistake of Quantitative Easing
9/20/2010Be Careful of the New Normal
9/13/2010Unfunded Liabilities and Cheap Stocks
9/7/2010President Obama's Best Gift to Labor
August 2010
8/30/2010Odds Brightening for Tax Cut Extension
8/23/2010We Knew Ronald Reagan…and He’s No Reagan
8/16/2010Politics and Pessimists
8/9/2010Please - No More Stimulus
8/2/2010GDP Data - Better than the Spin Suggests
July 2010
7/26/2010The Good, Bad and Ugly of Austerity
7/19/2010"New Normal" Nowhere in Sight
7/12/2010Trade Deficits As Far As the Eye Can See
7/6/2010Get Real - This is Not 1932
June 2010
6/28/2010Feds Spin Wheels on Financial Regulation
6/21/2010China Rising
6/14/2010Disagreeing With Laffer About 2011
6/7/2010Has America Forgotten the Fruits of Freedom?
6/1/2010FASB Fanatics At It Again
May 2010
5/24/2010Dr. Copper and the Pessimists
5/17/2010A Shift in Our Fed Rate Outlook
5/10/2010Wall Street Dips, Main Street Turns the Corner
5/3/2010Triumph of the Euro?
April 2010
4/26/2010The Danger of Zero Percent Interest Rates
4/19/2010Higher Inflation, Not Hyperinflation
4/12/2010All Aboard the V-Train
4/5/2010No Double-Dip for Housing
March 2010
3/29/2010Gary Becker's Optimism
3/22/2010Health Care Fallout
3/15/2010More Solid Growth Ahead
3/8/2010More on That Federal Pay Cut
3/1/2010Getting Serious About the Deficit
February 2010
2/22/2010Don't Be An Economic Hypochondriac
2/16/2010Greece is Not Lehman Brothers
2/8/2010It's a V-Shaped Recovery: Not "Trudging"
2/1/2010It’s Not the 1930s Again
January 2010
1/25/2010Financial Reform – Let's Do the Right Thing
1/19/2010Stop. Turn around. Don’t Head for the Hills
1/11/2010Even France Has Recoveries
1/4/2010Wrong Way Bernanke
December 2009
12/28/2009Stocks Are Still Cheap
12/21/2009Who are the Real "Fat Cat" Innkeepers?
12/14/2009It’s Not the Government’s Recovery
12/7/2009Government – The Biggest Bubble Of Them All
November 2009
11/30/2009Conservative Inconsistency and TARP
11/23/2009Upside Down and Backwards
11/16/2009Keep Your Eye on "Cash Inflation"
11/9/2009Two Views of the Jobs Picture
11/2/2009Ben Bernanke: The Real Pay Czar
October 2009
10/26/2009Not So Unequal, After All
10/19/2009Hold Onto Your Hats: Strong GDP Reports on the Way
10/12/2009A Simple Win-Win for Investors and the Government
10/5/2009Not So Disappointing
September 2009
9/28/2009Das Supply-Side
9/21/2009Framework for More Government
9/14/2009An Immaculate Recovery, This is Not
9/8/2009Education, Entrepreneurship, And The President
August 2009
8/31/2009Fed Must Act Soon
8/24/2009Congress is the Clunker
8/17/2009Stock Rally and Economic Recovery: Not "Sugar Highs"
8/10/2009The Economy is Improving, No Thanks to Stimulus
8/3/2009Let's Tax DC Windfall Gains
July 2009
7/27/2009Suspend Mark-to-Market, Before It Does More Harm
7/20/2009The Shorts Are On the Run
7/13/2009How Can We Be So Optimistic About Growth?
7/6/2009Yes Job Losses Hurt, But the Recovery Is Still on Track
June 2009
6/29/2009Michael Jackson: A Lesson in Economics
6/22/2009The Overrated Unwinding
6/15/2009Emotional Forecasts
6/8/2009Back to September
6/1/2009Bank Lending Will Lag the Recovery, Not Lead
May 2009
5/26/2009It's Still AAA
5/18/2009Reappoint Bernanke
5/11/2009Bad Logic
5/4/2009Recession Is Over; No More Shoes to Drop
April 2009
4/27/2009First Quarter GDP: Don't Judge A Book By Its Cover
4/20/2009Tea Party Economics
4/13/2009The Bouncing Balls of History
4/6/2009Easy Money Will End Recession
March 2009
3/30/2009Government Gone Wild
3/23/2009Inflation: Don't Forgetaboutit...It's Still A Huge Problem
3/16/2009Velocity Returns
3/9/2009"Rosy Scenario" Hides Irresponsible Spending
3/2/2009Is it the Economy or the Policies?
February 2009
2/23/2009Don’t Nationalize; Suspend Mark-to-Market
2/17/2009The Economy and Market Can Rise, Despite Government Mistakes
2/9/2009Mark-to-Market Reform; More Important Than Stimulus
2/2/2009Seismic Indicators Sense Some Inner Rumblings
January 2009
1/26/2009Headed to Havana?
1/20/2009Big Bad Bank
1/12/2009No Vicious Consumer Cycle
1/5/2009Circling the Wagons
December 2008
12/29/2008Stocks are Dirt Cheap
12/22/2008Things to Be Thankful For
12/15/2008We Are the Catalyst
12/8/2008Obama: Try Spending Surge, Because "Deficits Don’t Matter"
12/1/2008Black Friday Shoppers Signal Consumer Hopefulness
November 2008
11/24/2008The Right Direction, For Now
11/17/2008Darkest Before the Dawn
11/10/2008Unintended Consequences
11/3/2008Fiscal Stimulus, Just Say No
October 2008
10/27/2008Paving the Road to France
10/20/2008Expect a "V" Shaped Recovery
10/13/2008FASB Pivots on Mark-to-Market
10/6/2008Cut to 1%; Now!
September 2008
9/29/2008Psychology and the Economy
9/22/2008Here's A Plan to Avoid a New RTC
9/15/2008Gales of Punitive Destruction
9/8/2008Mark-to-Market Now Mark-to-Taxpayer
9/2/2008Incomes Up, Inequality Down
August 2008
8/25/2008Long Term Trend Still Bullish
8/18/2008Commodity Price Slide Not a Good Reason to Postpone Rate Hikes
8/11/2008What Hath The Fed Wrought?
8/4/2008GDP Report "Mis-Underestimated"
July 2008
7/28/2008Stocks: The Only Game in Town?
7/21/2008Growth Was Solid in Q2
7/14/2008Don't Forget Government Failure
7/7/2008Where Does Inflation Come From?
June 2008
6/30/2008Freedom and Optimism
6/23/2008Commodity Peak, Dollar Bottom
6/16/2008The Phantom Recession is Already Over
6/9/2008No Oil Recession
6/2/2008Cap and Trade Trap
May 2008
5/27/2008Bubble Trouble
5/19/2008Yes, We Have No Bananas
5/12/2008Deficit Rising, But Tax Hikes Not Warranted
5/5/2008Economic Fundamentals Say No Recession
April 2008
4/28/2008Still No Recession
4/21/2008Monday Morning Outlook - A Stronger Dollar Requires Tighter Money
4/14/2008More Inflation: On Its Way
4/7/2008Still at Dow 15000
March 2008
3/31/2008Are the Investment Tax Cuts Going to Expire?
3/24/2008Government Failure, Or Market Failure?
3/17/2008Another Ride on the Fed's Asset-Centric Rollercoaster
3/10/2008Shrinking Payrolls Mean Sluggish Growth, Not Recession
3/3/2008Economy Remains Resilient in Q1
February 2008
2/25/2008Inflation Denial
2/19/2008Unnecessary and Artificial Stimulus
2/11/2008Traders, Investors and Economists
2/4/2008Hung Jury
January 2008
1/28/2008A Super Bowl Week for Economic Data
1/22/2008Dow 15,000
1/14/2008Bad Mood about the Economy Unwarranted
1/7/2008Recession Fears Still Misplaced
December 2007
12/31/2007The Big Picture
12/24/2007Markets Bend, Economy Stays Strong
12/17/2007The Fed is Wrong, Not Incompetent
12/10/2007A Mortgage Bailout?
12/3/2007Expect the Unexpected
November 2007
11/26/2007You Gotta Believe
11/19/2007Dollar Danger
11/12/2007Energizer Bunny Economy - Take Two
11/5/2007Despite Fear: Economy Still Strong
October 2007
10/29/2007Strong Growth in the Third Quarter
10/22/2007U.S. Stocks Remain Undervalued
10/15/2007Payroll Growth: The 1990s Versus the 2000s
10/8/2007The Consumer Will Not Fade
10/1/2007The Economy's Not Landing, It's Taking Off
September 2007
9/24/2007TIPS: A 'Vanity Mirror' for the Fed?
9/17/2007Keeping Our Fingers Crossed For a Hard Money Fed
9/10/2007Unnecessary Rate Cut...On Its Way?
9/4/2007Solid Growth Continues in the Third Quarter
August 2007
8/27/2007The Labor Market Will Weather the Mortgage Storm
8/20/2007Bernanke Resists "Hair of the Dog"
8/13/2007Rate Cuts Would Increase Recession Risk
8/6/2007No More Greenspan Put
July 2007
7/30/2007GDP Revisions Suggest Healthy Growth Ahead
7/23/2007Second Quarter GDP
7/16/2007Dow 14,500
7/9/2007Discipline and Fundamentals Beat Uncertainty
7/2/2007Supreme Economics
June 2007
6/25/2007Consumers Resilient - Don’t Buy the Tapped Out Story
6/18/2007The Bond Bubble Bursts
6/11/2007Don’t Fear Higher Wages
6/4/2007The Construction Job Mystery
May 2007
5/29/2007Don't Get Complacent About Inflation
5/21/2007Dollar Crash, Not in the Cards
5/14/2007The Economic Rebound Is Already Underway
5/7/2007After the Pause, a Refreshing Rebound
April 2007
4/30/2007Revenue Blow Out
4/23/2007Dow 14,000 Remains on Tap
4/16/2007Inflation is Much Worse Than Fed Tightening
4/9/2007Pushing Back Our Rate Hike
4/2/2007Monday Morning Outlook: Bernanke Wants Higher Long-term Interest Rates
March 2007
3/26/2007Inflation and the Fed
3/19/2007The Lion that Squeaked
3/12/2007Back to the Future
3/5/2007It's Not the Economy
February 2007
2/26/2007Germany: A One-Year Wonder?
2/20/2007Saving Grace
2/12/2007Bernanke Goes to the Hill
2/5/2007No Need for Tax Hikes, Surplus on Tap for 2009
January 2007
1/29/2007Productivity, Goldilocks, and Inflation
1/22/2007Ice Cold Water at Davos
1/16/2007Don't Worry About the Inverted Yield Curve
1/8/2007The Bronco Nation
1/2/2007Gerald Ford: Nightmare Fighter
December 2006
12/26/2006A New Year Cometh
12/18/2006Is It Goldilocks, or Not?
12/11/2006Comfort Food
12/4/2006The Shrinking Dollar
November 2006
11/27/2006The Consumer Lives
11/20/2006So Long Uncle Milty
11/13/2006It Was A “Thumpin”
11/6/2006Uncertainty Everywhere
October 2006
10/30/2006A Pause in Growth and Questionable Polls
10/23/2006Let the Voting Begin
10/16/2006The Tigers are Back, The Economy is Still Strong
10/9/2006Job Growth Strong or Weak?
10/2/2006Productivity, Profits Strong, Stocks Making New Highs
September 2006
9/25/2006Fed Ease in 2007?
9/18/2006Soft, Hard, or Any Landing at All?
9/11/2006Commodities Drop, But Inflation Still Here
9/5/2006Changing Times Are Challenging Times
August 2006
8/28/2006Policy and Economic Denial
8/21/2006Real Wages, the Economy, and Politics
8/14/2006Don’t Try So Hard, Have Faith
8/7/2006Monday Morning Fed Watching
July 2006
7/31/2006Has the Economy Been Taking Steroids?
7/24/2006The US Economy is Wearing Yellow
7/17/2006Don't Fear the "R" Word
7/10/2006Tax Cuts, Budget Deficits and the Economy
7/3/2006Hard Money, Low Taxes
June 2006
6/26/2006The Fed is on the Mound, Stocks Are Undervalued
6/19/2006Market-Based Indicators and the Fed
6/12/2006Is the Economy Really Slowing Down?
6/5/2006It’s Not the Eighth Inning Yet
May 2006
5/30/2006Nominal GDP, the Fed and Nirvana
5/22/2006Stagflation Fears Create Buying Opportunity
5/15/2006Pausing Now Would be a Mistake
5/1/2006The Boom Continues
April 2006
4/24/2006Oil, the Economy, and Inflation
4/17/2006Deficits: Do They Matter?
4/10/2006The Conundrum Unwinds Rapidly
4/3/2006The Canary in the Coal Mine
March 2006
3/27/2006Pessimism, Optimisim and Freedom
3/20/2006Capitalism, Profits, and the Wage Gap
3/13/2006The Real Threats to the Economy
3/6/2006Are Bonds Finally Recognizing Reality?
February 2006
2/27/2006Monetary Policy Misunderstanding
2/21/2006Growth and Taxes
2/13/2006Greenspan Casts a Shadow
2/6/2006A Long Way From the Edge
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