The S&P 500 Index dropped 9% in September alone and has fallen 24% in the first nine months of 2022 as the Federal Reserve (Fed) attempts to combat inflation with interest rate increases (Source: Bloomberg). Fed Chairman Jerome Powell was very clear in his September 21st press conference when he said "First, we’ll want to see growth continuing to run below trend […] We think of trend as being about 1.8% or in that range." The market clearly expects the Fed rate hikes to result in slowing growth and potentially send the economy into an outright recession. In either scenario, a growth slowdown or a recession, the earnings growth forecasts for next year are expected to be lower or even contract from the record earnings being reported for 2022.
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