Home Logon FTA Investment Managers Blog Subscribe About Us Contact Us

Search by Ticker, Keyword or CUSIP       
 
 

Blog Home
   Brian Wesbury
Chief Economist
 
Bio
X •  LinkedIn
   Bob Stein
Deputy Chief Economist
Bio
X •  LinkedIn
 
  Industrial Production Declined 0.2% in May
Posted Under: Data Watch • Industrial Production - Cap Utilization • Markets
Supporting Image for Blog Post

 

Implications:  Industrial production came in weaker than expected in May, posting the first decline of 2023.  The biggest source of weakness in May came from utilities which fell 1.8%, but which are volatile and largely dependent on weather.  Meanwhile, the mining sector was another negative contributor, posting a decline of 0.4%.  A slower pace of mineral extraction, as well as less drilling of new oil wells, more than offset gains in oil and gas production.  Given that the mining index remains below its pre-pandemic highs, we expect this series to continue to be a lifeline for industrial production in the near term.  In positive news this morning, the manufacturing sector eked out a gain of 0.1%.  Looking at the details, both auto and non-auto manufacturing posted gains, rising 0.2% and 0.1%, respectively.  Given the trend of consumers shifting their preferences back toward services and away from goods, we expect manufacturing activity to weaken in future months.  We are still forecasting a recession ahead with the goods sector leading the way.  In other factory news this morning, the Philadelphia Fed Index, which measures manufacturing sentiment in that region, fell to -13.7 in June from -10.4 in May.  We also got the Empire State Index this morning, a measure of New York factory sentiment, which rebounded to +6.6 in June from -31.8 in May.

Click here for a PDF version

Posted on Thursday, June 15, 2023 @ 10:36 AM • Post Link Print this post Printer Friendly

These posts were prepared by First Trust Advisors L.P., and reflect the current opinion of the authors. They are based upon sources and data believed to be accurate and reliable. Opinions and forward looking statements expressed are subject to change without notice. This information does not constitute a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any security.
 
The information presented is not intended to constitute an investment recommendation for, or advice to, any specific person. By providing this information, First Trust is not undertaking to give advice in any fiduciary capacity within the meaning of ERISA, the Internal Revenue Code or any other regulatory framework. Financial professionals are responsible for evaluating investment risks independently and for exercising independent judgment in determining whether investments are appropriate for their clients.
Follow First Trust:  
First Trust Portfolios L.P.  Member SIPC and FINRA. (Form CRS)   •  First Trust Advisors L.P. (Form CRS)
Home |  Important Legal Information |  Privacy Policy |  California Privacy Policy |  Business Continuity Plan |  FINRA BrokerCheck
Copyright © 2024 All rights reserved.