Home   Logon   Mobile Site   Research and Commentary   About Us   Call 1.800.621.1675 or Email Us       Follow Us: 

Search by Ticker, Keyword or CUSIP       
 
 

Blog Home
   Brian Wesbury
Chief Economist
 
Click for Bio
Follow Brian on Twitter Follow Brian on LinkedIn View Videos on YouTube
   Bob Stein
Deputy Chief Economist
Click for Bio
Follow Bob on Twitter Follow Bob on LinkedIn View Videos on YouTube
 
  Nonfarm Payrolls Increased 210,000 in November
Posted Under: Data Watch • Employment • Government • Inflation • Fed Reserve

 
Implications:  Don't get bent out of shape about headlines showing a slowdown in payroll growth.  Yes, nonfarm payrolls grew only 210,000 in November, the slowest pace so far this year, well below the consensus expected 550,000, and also well below the lowest forecast from any economics group.  However, there are several reasons why this one number should be taken with a grain of salt.  First, civilian employment, an alternative measure of jobs that includes small-business start-ups, increased 1.136 million in November, the fastest pace in more than a year, helping push the unemployment rate to a new recovery low of 4.2%.  Second, the number of hours worked in the private sector increased 0.5% in November, largely due to an increase in hours per worker.  If the increase in total hours had been achieved only hiring more workers (rather than also by having the average worker work more hours) the payroll gain would have been about 570,000, slightly above consensus expectations.  Third, upward revisions to prior months added 82,000 to payrolls, with all that adjustment (on net) in the private sector.  Fourth, the labor force participations rate (the share of adults who are either working or looking for work) and the employment-to-population (the share of adults who are working) both rose to the highest levels so far in the recovery, 61.8% and 59.2%, respectively.  Last, wage gains continued, with average hourly earnings up 0.3% in November and up 4.8% in the past year. Total hours worked rose 0.5% in November and are up 4.4% in the past year.  Combining hourly pay and the number of hours worked, total worker pay (excluding irregular bonuses) has increased 9.4% in the past year and is up 7.6% since February 2020 (pre-COVID).  This is important because it means that the growth in total worker pay has roughly kept pace with inflation.  Don't be surprised if this payroll report is revised upward in the next two months while the pace of job growth picks up in future months, as well.  Still, the labor market is far from fully healed.  Payrolls remain 3.9 million below where there were in February 2020 while civilian employment is 3.6 million below.  The labor force is 2.4 million below pre-COVID levels.  Assuming the Biden Administration's OSHA rules are not resurrected and other new burdensome rules and restrictions aren't imposed, the labor market should continue to heal.   

Click here for a PDF version
Posted on Friday, December 3, 2021 @ 10:59 AM • Post Link Share: 
Print this post Printer Friendly

These posts were prepared by First Trust Advisors L.P., and reflect the current opinion of the authors. They are based upon sources and data believed to be accurate and reliable. Opinions and forward looking statements expressed are subject to change without notice. This information does not constitute a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any security.
 
The information presented is not intended to constitute an investment recommendation for, or advice to, any specific person. By providing this information, First Trust is not undertaking to give advice in any fiduciary capacity within the meaning of ERISA, the Internal Revenue Code or any other regulatory framework. Financial professionals are responsible for evaluating investment risks independently and for exercising independent judgment in determining whether investments are appropriate for their clients.
First Trust Portfolios L.P.  Member SIPC and FINRA. (Form CRS)   •  First Trust Advisors L.P. (Form CRS)
Home |  Important Legal Information |  Privacy Policy |  California Privacy Policy |  Business Continuity Plan |  FINRA BrokerCheck
Copyright © 2022 All rights reserved.