Home   Logon   Mobile Site   Research and Commentary   About Us   Call 1.800.621.1675 or Email Us       Follow Us: 

Search by Ticker, Keyword or CUSIP       
 
 

Blog Home
   Brian Wesbury
Chief Economist
 
Click for Bio
Follow Brian on Twitter Follow Brian on LinkedIn View Videos on YouTube
   Bob Stein
Deputy Chief Economist
Click for Bio
Follow Bob on Twitter Follow Bob on LinkedIn View Videos on YouTube
 
  Personal Income Rose 0.4% in November
Posted Under: Data Watch • Durable Goods • Employment • Government • Inflation • PIC • Spending • COVID-19

 
Implications:  Personal income rose 0.4% in November, as both wages and government transfer payments contributed to more cash in consumers' pockets.  Following two months of declines as extended unemployment benefits ended and individuals returned to the workforce, government transfer payments rose in November as payments from the Provider Relief Fund (PRF), which sent checks to health care providers, more than offset declining payments from other programs.  Far more important (and sustainable) income gains came as private-sector wages and salaries rose 0.5% in November and are now up a whopping 9.7% in the past year.  And with extra funds to spend during the holiday season, consumption rose 0.6% in November, led by spending on services.  And spending growth should continue.  Job growth continues, wages are going up quickly, and some people saved transfer payments they received during COVID, giving them more (temporary) spending power.  On the inflation front, PCE prices grew 0.6% in November, and are up 5.7% from a year ago.  Core prices, which exclude food and energy, rose 0.5% in November and are up 4.7% from a year ago, supporting the Federal Reserve's recent decision to accelerate the pace of tapering in anticipation of raising rates in 2022.  In other news out this morning, durable goods orders jumped 2.5% in November and are up 14.7% in the past year.  Orders excluding transportation rose a very healthy 0.8% in November and are up 13.4% from a year ago.  One of the most important numbers for GDP purposes, shipments of non-defense capital goods excluding aircraft, rose 0.3% in November, and if unchanged in December, will be up at a 6.7% annualized rate in Q4 versus the Q3 average.  On the employment front, initial unemployment claims were unchanged at 205,000 last week. Meanwhile, continuing claims fell 8,000 to 1.859 million, a new low for the pandemic recovery.  Expect a solid payroll report for December.

Click here for a PDF version
Posted on Thursday, December 23, 2021 @ 11:16 AM • Post Link Share: 
Print this post Printer Friendly

These posts were prepared by First Trust Advisors L.P., and reflect the current opinion of the authors. They are based upon sources and data believed to be accurate and reliable. Opinions and forward looking statements expressed are subject to change without notice. This information does not constitute a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any security.
 
The information presented is not intended to constitute an investment recommendation for, or advice to, any specific person. By providing this information, First Trust is not undertaking to give advice in any fiduciary capacity within the meaning of ERISA, the Internal Revenue Code or any other regulatory framework. Financial professionals are responsible for evaluating investment risks independently and for exercising independent judgment in determining whether investments are appropriate for their clients.
First Trust Portfolios L.P.  Member SIPC and FINRA. (Form CRS)   •  First Trust Advisors L.P. (Form CRS)
Home |  Important Legal Information |  Privacy Policy |  California Privacy Policy |  Business Continuity Plan |  FINRA BrokerCheck
Copyright © 2022 All rights reserved.