Home Logon FTA Investment Managers Blog Subscribe About Us Contact Us

Search by Ticker, Keyword or CUSIP       
 
 

Blog Home
   Brian Wesbury
Chief Economist
 
Bio
X •  LinkedIn
   Bob Stein
Deputy Chief Economist
Bio
X •  LinkedIn
 
  The Trade Deficit in Goods and Services Came in at $43.1 Billion in November
Posted Under: Data Watch • Trade
Supporting Image for Blog Post

 

Implications: The trade deficit fell in November to $43.1 billion, the smallest since 2016. This supports our projection that real GDP grew at a 3.0% annual rate in the fourth quarter, although there's plenty of data coming out next week that might adjust that forecast either up or down.  Notably, for the third month in a row, the dollar value of US petroleum exports exceeded the dollar value of US petroleum imports.  Yes, you read that right: the US was again a net petroleum exporter in November.  Horizontal drilling and fracking have transformed the global energy market and the US is no longer hostage to foreign oil.  This pattern may temporarily reverse in the Winter due to the seasonal pattern of US oil imports, but should re-assert itself by Spring.  However, not all the news in today's report is worth celebrating.  Although exports grew by $1.4 billion, imports declined by $2.5 billion. So, total trade between the US and the rest of the world fell $1.1 billion in November.  Overall, in the past year exports are up 0.3%, while imports are down 3.8%.  In general, we'd like to see more trade between the US and the rest of the world, not less.  Hopefully we will soon see a "Phase One" deal with China as well as near-term passage of USMCA, the trade agreement with Canada and Mexico.  Note that the merchandise trade deficit with China shrunk to $25.6 billion in November, the smallest since 2013, which likely put pressure on China to make a deal.  In other recent news, Americans bought cars and light trucks at a 16.7 million annual rate in December, down 2.3% from November, and down 3.9% from a year ago.  For all of 2019, 16.9 million cars and light trucks were sold.  The trend over the next few years should be gradually downward as consumers shift their spending toward other sectors.

Click here  for PDF version

Posted on Tuesday, January 7, 2020 @ 11:37 AM • Post Link Print this post Printer Friendly

These posts were prepared by First Trust Advisors L.P., and reflect the current opinion of the authors. They are based upon sources and data believed to be accurate and reliable. Opinions and forward looking statements expressed are subject to change without notice. This information does not constitute a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any security.
 
The information presented is not intended to constitute an investment recommendation for, or advice to, any specific person. By providing this information, First Trust is not undertaking to give advice in any fiduciary capacity within the meaning of ERISA, the Internal Revenue Code or any other regulatory framework. Financial professionals are responsible for evaluating investment risks independently and for exercising independent judgment in determining whether investments are appropriate for their clients.
Follow First Trust:  
First Trust Portfolios L.P.  Member SIPC and FINRA. (Form CRS)   •  First Trust Advisors L.P. (Form CRS)
Home |  Important Legal Information |  Privacy Policy |  California Privacy Policy |  Business Continuity Plan |  FINRA BrokerCheck
Copyright © 2024 All rights reserved.