Home   Logon   Mobile Site   Research and Commentary   About Us   Call 1.800.621.1675 or Email Us       Follow Us: 

Search by Ticker, Keyword or CUSIP       

Blog Home
   Brian Wesbury
Chief Economist
Click for Bio
Follow Brian on Twitter Follow Brian on LinkedIn View Videos on YouTube
   Bob Stein
Deputy Chief Economist
Click for Bio
Follow Bob on Twitter Follow Bob on LinkedIn View Videos on YouTube
  The Consumer Price Index Rose 0.3% in November
Posted Under: CPI • Data Watch • Inflation
Supporting Image for Blog Post


Implications:  The Federal Reserve has made it clear that it plans to stand pat on rates for the foreseeable future and this morning's data on consumer prices will help reinforce that decision at today's Fed meeting.  Consumer prices rose 0.3% in November, following a 0.4% jump in October, and are now up 2.1% in the past year.  Energy prices rose 0.8% in November, while medical care costs rose 0.3% and housing costs increased 0.2%, key drivers in the headline 0.3% increase in consumer prices, which came in above consensus expectations.  In fact, rising prices were broad-based in November, with only the index for new car prices showing a decline.  If you pull out the typically volatile food and energy sectors, "core" prices rose 0.2%, matching forecaster estimates.  Core prices are up 2.3% in the past year, just a tick off the highest annual increase we have seen since the recovery started.  And "core" prices have hovered at or above the Fed's 2% inflation target for twenty-one consecutive months.  That's a signal that everything is looking A-OK.  Not too fast, not too slow, just right.  Add in employment data continuing to show strength, and it makes sense that the Fed signaled at the last meeting that it doesn't expect further rate cuts unless we see a material change in the economic outlook.  Meanwhile, real average hourly earnings were unchanged in November.  However, these earnings are up 1.1% in the past year, and, with the strength in the labor market, we believe earnings will trend higher in the year ahead.  Healthy consumer balance sheets, a strong job market, inflation in-line with Fed targets, and the continued tail winds from improved tax and regulatory policy, all reinforce our belief that the economy will continue to grow at a healthy pace in the new year. 

Click here  for PDF version

Posted on Wednesday, December 11, 2019 @ 10:56 AM • Post Link Share: 
Print this post Printer Friendly

These posts were prepared by First Trust Advisors L.P., and reflect the current opinion of the authors. They are based upon sources and data believed to be accurate and reliable. Opinions and forward looking statements expressed are subject to change without notice. This information does not constitute a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any security.
The information presented is not intended to constitute an investment recommendation for, or advice to, any specific person. By providing this information, First Trust is not undertaking to give advice in any fiduciary capacity within the meaning of ERISA, the Internal Revenue Code or any other regulatory framework. Financial professionals are responsible for evaluating investment risks independently and for exercising independent judgment in determining whether investments are appropriate for their clients.
First Trust Portfolios L.P.  Member SIPC and FINRA. (Form CRS)   •  First Trust Advisors L.P. (Form CRS)
Home |  Important Legal Information |  Privacy Policy |  California Privacy Policy |  Business Continuity Plan |  FINRA BrokerCheck
Copyright © 2023 All rights reserved.