Home Logon FTA Investment Managers Blog Subscribe About Us Contact Us

Search by Ticker, Keyword or CUSIP       
 
 

Blog Home
   Brian Wesbury
Chief Economist
 
Bio
X •  LinkedIn
   Bob Stein
Deputy Chief Economist
Bio
X •  LinkedIn
 
  New Single-Family Home Sales Declined 7.8% in January
Posted Under: Data Watch • Home Sales • Housing
Supporting Image for Blog Post

 

Implications:  New home sales disappointed in January, coming in below even the most pessimistic forecast by any economics group to start 2018 off on a weak note.  Sales of new homes fell 7.8% in January, and are now down 1.0% from a year ago.  However, don't read too deeply into January's weak headline number.   Last year posted the highest annual sales total in a decade, a trend we expect to continue.  The biggest drag on today's number came from the South, as sales continued their return to trend after Hurricanes Harvey and Irma caused many people in that region to buy new homes to replace those destroyed in the aftermath, temporarily driving up activity.  Going forward it's important to remember that new home sales are volatile from month to month, but prospects remain good for further growth over the next few years. Sales of new homes were typically about 15% of all home sales prior to the end of the housing bubble in the previous decade.  They fell to about 6.5% of sales at the bottom of the housing bust and now have recovered to about 10%.  And if there's plenty of room for growth in new home sales, that means plenty of room for home building to grow as well.  At first glance, inventories sitting at a post-crisis high and a corresponding rise in the months' supply to its highest level since 2014 would seem to refute this. However, completed units are now at their lowest portion of overall inventories since 2006, which means builders still have plenty of room to expand.  With jobs continuing to grow at a healthy pace, wages accelerating, and a tax cut taking effect, we maintain our optimism about home building in the years ahead.  Although the new tax law trims back the mortgage interest deduction for some high-end homes, the value of the mortgage interest deduction was affected more broadly by the marginal tax rate reductions in the 1980s, during which housing did well.  Yes, the new tax law also trims back state and local tax deductions, including the property tax, but we think that's going to affect where people live, not overall home building nationwide.  The US economy is looking up and home sales will rebound in the near future.

Click here for PDF version


Posted on Monday, February 26, 2018 @ 11:45 AM • Post Link Print this post Printer Friendly

These posts were prepared by First Trust Advisors L.P., and reflect the current opinion of the authors. They are based upon sources and data believed to be accurate and reliable. Opinions and forward looking statements expressed are subject to change without notice. This information does not constitute a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any security.
Search Posts
 PREVIOUS POSTS
Deficits, the Fed, and Rates
M2 and C&I Loan Growth
Existing Home Sales Declined 3.2% in January
M2 and C&I Loan Growth
QE and Its Apologists
Housing Starts Increased 9.7% in January
Stocks even more undervalued after the correction?
Inflation, Interest Rates, and Stocks
Industrial Production Declined 0.1% in January
The Producer Price Index Rose 0.4% in January
Archive
Skip Navigation Links.
Expand 20242024
Expand 20232023
Expand 20222022
Expand 20212021
Expand 20202020
Expand 20192019
Expand 20182018
Expand 20172017
Expand 20162016
Expand 20152015
Expand 20142014
Expand 20132013
Expand 20122012
Expand 20112011
Expand 20102010

Search by Topic
Skip Navigation Links.

 
The information presented is not intended to constitute an investment recommendation for, or advice to, any specific person. By providing this information, First Trust is not undertaking to give advice in any fiduciary capacity within the meaning of ERISA, the Internal Revenue Code or any other regulatory framework. Financial professionals are responsible for evaluating investment risks independently and for exercising independent judgment in determining whether investments are appropriate for their clients.
Follow First Trust:  
First Trust Portfolios L.P.  Member SIPC and FINRA. (Form CRS)   •  First Trust Advisors L.P. (Form CRS)
Home |  Important Legal Information |  Privacy Policy |  California Privacy Policy |  Business Continuity Plan |  FINRA BrokerCheck
Copyright © 2024 All rights reserved.