Home Logon FTA Investment Managers Blog Subscribe About Us Contact Us

Search by Ticker, Keyword or CUSIP       
 
 

Blog Home
   Brian Wesbury
Chief Economist
 
Bio
X •  LinkedIn
   Bob Stein
Deputy Chief Economist
Bio
X •  LinkedIn
 
  Retail Sales Increased 0.4% in December
Posted Under: Data Watch • Retail Sales
Supporting Image for Blog Post

 

Implications: The Plow Horse economy has officially picked up her gait! Retailers capped off the strongest year of sales since 2012 on a high note with another solid month of sales in December.  Retail sales rose 0.4% in December, coming on the back of a 0.9% gain in November, a 0.7% gain in October and a 2.0% surge in September!  In contrast to September and October, when the rise in spending was led by autos, as people replaced vehicles destroyed in Hurricanes Harvey and Irma, the gain in December was broad-based, with 9 of the 13 major categories showing gains.  Non-store retailers (internet and mail-order) led the charge higher followed by restaurants & bars.  Non-store retail sales grew by 1.2% in December, and now make up 11.2% of retail sales, the largest share ever. More great news today was the considerable strength for "core" sales, which exclude volatile categories (autos, building materials, and gas).  Core sales grew 0.4% in December, but including prior months' positive revisions were up 0.9% and are up 5.4% from a year ago.  Although conventional wisdom argues that traditional retailers are in trouble because of the Internet, this is an overly pessimistic view.  Traditional retailers are not sitting still.  They are learning how to compete in today's new world.  Jobs and wages are moving up, consumers' financial obligations are less than average relative to incomes, and serious (90+ day) debt delinquencies are down substantially from post-recession highs. As a result of all of today's data, our model for GDP suggests a real GDP growth rate around 3.0% in the fourth quarter. 

Click here for PDF version

Posted on Friday, January 12, 2018 @ 10:48 AM • Post Link Print this post Printer Friendly

These posts were prepared by First Trust Advisors L.P., and reflect the current opinion of the authors. They are based upon sources and data believed to be accurate and reliable. Opinions and forward looking statements expressed are subject to change without notice. This information does not constitute a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any security.
 
The information presented is not intended to constitute an investment recommendation for, or advice to, any specific person. By providing this information, First Trust is not undertaking to give advice in any fiduciary capacity within the meaning of ERISA, the Internal Revenue Code or any other regulatory framework. Financial professionals are responsible for evaluating investment risks independently and for exercising independent judgment in determining whether investments are appropriate for their clients.
Follow First Trust:  
First Trust Portfolios L.P.  Member SIPC and FINRA. (Form CRS)   •  First Trust Advisors L.P. (Form CRS)
Home |  Important Legal Information |  Privacy Policy |  California Privacy Policy |  Business Continuity Plan |  FINRA BrokerCheck
Copyright © 2024 All rights reserved.