Home   Logon   Mobile Site   Research and Commentary   About Us   Call 1.800.621.1675 or Email Us       Follow Us: 

Search by Ticker, Keyword or CUSIP       
 
 

Blog Home
   Brian Wesbury
Chief Economist
 
Click for Bio
Follow Brian on Twitter Follow Brian on LinkedIn View Videos on YouTube
   Bob Stein
Deputy Chief Economist
Click for Bio
Follow Bob on Twitter Follow Bob on LinkedIn View Videos on YouTube
 
  New Orders for Durable Goods Rose 6.5% in June
Posted Under: Data Watch • Durable Goods

 

Implications:  Durable goods orders grew at the fastest pace in nearly three years in June, as Boeing had a surge in orders for new commercial aircraft.  Still, take out orders from the consistently volatile transportation sector, and orders rose 0.2% in June.  That was below what the consensus was expecting but upward revisions to May, when added to the June gain, shows ex-transportation orders up 0.5%.  In the past year, orders ex-transportation are up 6.8%, the largest gain since 2012.  The best news in today's report was for shipments of non-defense capital goods ex-aircraft, or "core" shipments.  These rose 0.2% in June and revised upward for May.  As a result, these orders were up at a 4.2% annual rate in Q2 versus the Q1 average, representing the third consecutive quarter of healthy growth following near constant declines from late 2014 to late 2016.  In part, this reflects the fact that energy prices have been more stable since the huge decline in late 2014.  However, it also likely reflects the willingness of businesses to invest more aggressively for efficiency purposes as the labor market gets tighter.  It looks like companies may be tired of waiting for Washington to make progress on tax reform and other issues, and starting to commit to significant longer-term decisions.  In employment news this morning, initial jobless claims rose 10,000 last week to 244,000, which is also the four-week moving average.  Meanwhile continuing claims declined 13,000 to 1.96 million.  It's still early – we will update our models next week as we get more claims data plus the ADP report – but plugging today's figures into our models suggests payrolls are up about 175,000 in July.

Click here for PDF version

Posted on Thursday, July 27, 2017 @ 11:17 AM • Post Link Share: 
Print this post Printer Friendly

These posts were prepared by First Trust Advisors L.P., and reflect the current opinion of the authors. They are based upon sources and data believed to be accurate and reliable. Opinions and forward looking statements expressed are subject to change without notice. This information does not constitute a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any security.
 
The information presented is not intended to constitute an investment recommendation for, or advice to, any specific person. By providing this information, First Trust is not undertaking to give advice in any fiduciary capacity within the meaning of ERISA, the Internal Revenue Code or any other regulatory framework. Financial professionals are responsible for evaluating investment risks independently and for exercising independent judgment in determining whether investments are appropriate for their clients.
First Trust Portfolios L.P.  Member SIPC and FINRA. (Form CRS)   •  First Trust Advisors L.P. (Form CRS)
Home |  Important Legal Information |  Privacy Policy |  California Privacy Policy |  Business Continuity Plan |  FINRA BrokerCheck
Copyright © 2020 All rights reserved.