Home   Logon   Mobile Site   Research and Commentary   About Us   Call 1.800.621.1675 or Email Us       Follow Us: 

Search by Ticker, Keyword or CUSIP       
 
 

Blog Home
   Brian Wesbury
Chief Economist
 
Click for Bio
Follow Brian on Twitter Follow Brian on LinkedIn View Videos on YouTube
   Bob Stein
Deputy Chief Economist
Click for Bio
Follow Bob on Twitter Follow Bob on LinkedIn View Videos on YouTube
 
  Retail Sales Declined 0.3% in May
Posted Under: Data Watch • Retail Sales

 

Implications:   Retail sales were soft in May, but shouldn't prevent the Fed from raising short-term interest rates later today.  Although retail sales declined 0.3% in May, coming in below the consensus expected no change, most of the decline was due to lower sales at gasoline stations, the result of a drop in gas prices at the pump.  Usually, gas prices rise in May as people start taking longer trips in the better weather.  However, this year headline gas prices fell slightly in May, making seasonally-adjusted prices and gas sales even weaker.  Plugging this morning's data into our models, it looks like "real" (inflation-adjusted) consumer spending will be up at about a 3% annual rate in the second quarter.  Some analysts will use today's data as a reason to stoke fears about the overall state of the consumer and will emphasize recent news about weakness and store closings among traditional brick and mortar retailers.  But, on a year-ago comparison basis, the growth in overall retail sales is still outstripping the growth of consumer prices.  Consumers are just spending their money differently than in the past, buying more items via the internet.  Non-store retailers made up 10.9% of retail sales in May, the largest portion ever and that will keep growing in the years ahead.  A decade ago, nonstore retailers accounted for 6.8% of retail sales.  And if you adjust for the areas where the internet has not had a dramatic effect, taking out autos, building materials and gas stations, non-store retailers now make up 16.3%.  "Core" sales, which exclude autos, building materials, and gas, were unchanged in May, but were up 0.2% including revisions to prior months.  Core sales are up 2.8% from a year ago but are accelerating, up 3.4% annualized over the past six months and 4.4% over the past three months.  The fundamental trends that drive growth in consumer spending continue to look good, including healthy job growth, faster wage growth, and very low consumer financial obligations relative to historical norms. The consumer is alive and well.

Click here for PDF version

Posted on Wednesday, June 14, 2017 @ 10:52 AM • Post Link Share: 
Print this post Printer Friendly

These posts were prepared by First Trust Advisors L. P., and reflect the current opinion of the authors. They are based upon sources and data believed to be accurate and reliable. Opinions and forward looking statements expressed are subject to change without notice. This information does not constitute a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any security.
 
The information presented is not intended to constitute an investment recommendation for, or advice to, any specific person. By providing this information, First Trust is not undertaking to give advice in any fiduciary capacity within the meaning of ERISA, the Internal Revenue Code or any other regulatory framework. Financial advisors are responsible for evaluating investment risks independently and for exercising independent judgment in determining whether investments are appropriate for their clients.
First Trust Portfolios L.P.  Member SIPC and FINRA.
First Trust Advisors L.P.
Home |  Important Legal Information |  Privacy Policy |  Business Continuity Plan |  FINRA BrokerCheck
Copyright © 2019 All rights reserved.