Home   Logon   Mobile Site   Research and Commentary   About Us   Call 1.800.621.1675 or Email Us       Follow Us: 

Search by Ticker, Keyword or CUSIP       
 
 

Blog Home
   Brian Wesbury
Chief Economist
 
Click for Bio
Follow Brian on Twitter Follow Brian on LinkedIn View Videos on YouTube
   Bob Stein
Deputy Chief Economist
Click for Bio
Follow Bob on Twitter Follow Bob on LinkedIn View Videos on YouTube
 
  New Orders for Durable Goods Rose 0.7% in March
Posted Under: Data Watch • Durable Goods

 

Implications:  Before we dig into the details, the most important news from today's report on durable goods is that shipments of non-defense capital goods excluding aircraft – the measure used to calculate business investment for GDP purposes – rose at a 7.5% annual rate in Q1 versus the Q4 average.  That represents the fastest growth of business investment in equipment since the big slowdown in drilling activity began in Q3 2014.  New orders for durable goods rose once again in March following healthy increases in January and February, though gains were mostly due to orders for aircraft, which are very volatile from month to month.  Strip out the transportation sector and durable goods orders declined a slight 0.2%.  The dip in March non-transportation orders was led by fabricated metal products, with most major categories showing small declines.  But there is little reason for concern. Non-transportation orders have been steadily trending higher since mid-2016, and March represents the first monthly decline since June of last year.  Machinery orders also dipped in March, but we expect them to pick up again in the months ahead alongside continued improvements in the energy sector, which had been pulling down machinery investment since oil prices started declining in mid-2014.  Put it all together and the March report on durable goods could have been better, but it still shows a healthy pickup in business investment that had been a weak spot until late 2016.  In other news this morning, new claims for unemployment insurance increased 14,000 last week to 257,000.  The four-week moving average is 242,000.  Continuing claims rose 10,000 to 1.98 million.  Plugging these figures into our models suggests robust job growth in April, with a payroll gain north of 200,000. 

Click here for PDF version 

Posted on Thursday, April 27, 2017 @ 11:04 AM • Post Link Share: 
Print this post Printer Friendly

These posts were prepared by First Trust Advisors L. P., and reflect the current opinion of the authors. They are based upon sources and data believed to be accurate and reliable. Opinions and forward looking statements expressed are subject to change without notice. This information does not constitute a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any security.
 
The information presented is not intended to constitute an investment recommendation for, or advice to, any specific person. By providing this information, First Trust is not undertaking to give advice in any fiduciary capacity within the meaning of ERISA, the Internal Revenue Code or any other regulatory framework. Financial advisors are responsible for evaluating investment risks independently and for exercising independent judgment in determining whether investments are appropriate for their clients.
First Trust Portfolios L.P.  Member SIPC and FINRA.
First Trust Advisors L.P.
Home |  Important Legal Information |  Privacy Policy |  Business Continuity Plan |  FINRA BrokerCheck
Copyright © 2020 All rights reserved.