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  No Recession in Sight
Posted Under: Bullish • Employment

Initial claims for unemployment benefits fell last week to the lowest level since mid-October. These are not recessionary numbers, on the contrary they show an economy that is continuing to improve. All the pouting pundits of pessimism can't figure it out.

Jobless claims fell by 18,000 for the week ending March 5th to 259,000, almost matching the four-decade low set in July of 255,000. Sometimes there are statistical issues where some states have to be estimated throwing the numbers off, but the Department of Labor said no states were estimated and nothing was unusual in the data.

To smooth out some of the week to week volatility, the four week average is used and that fell to 267,500, the best reading since November.

This measure is a wonderful leading indicator for the state of employment and the economy for that matter. Weekly claims have remained below 300,000 now for 53 consecutive weeks. It doesn't get much better than this!

Although the media continually screams recession, the data continue to tell a much different story. Stay the course. The US economy is just fine.

Posted on Thursday, March 10, 2016 @ 1:36 PM • Post Link Share: 
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