Home   Logon   Mobile Site   Research and Commentary   About Us   Call 1.800.621.1675 or Email Us       Follow Us: 

Search by Ticker, Keyword or CUSIP       

Blog Home
   Brian Wesbury
Chief Economist
Click for Bio
Follow Brian on Twitter Follow Brian on LinkedIn View Videos on YouTube
   Bob Stein
Deputy Chief Economist
Click for Bio
Follow Bob on Twitter Follow Bob on LinkedIn View Videos on YouTube
  The Trade Deficit in Goods and Services Came in at $36.4 Billion in September
Posted Under: Data Watch • Trade

Implications: The trade deficit shrank in September to the smallest level in more than a year as imports declined and exports rose.  In the past four months, exports are up $7.8 billion, the largest four-month rise since mid-2011.  Imports drove the smaller trade balance in September, falling $3 billion as pharmaceuticals, civilian aircraft, and computer accessories led the decline.  Meanwhile exports rose despite a significant (but expected) pullback in soybean exports.  So far, there has been no visible effect of Brexit on trade.  Exports to the UK rose in September, while imports modestly declined, but both remain in line with the levels seen before the June referendum.  We didn't buy into the fear mongering surrounding the "leave" vote and believe Brexit will prove to be a long-term positive as the UK uses its increased flexibility to make better trade agreements with the U.S., Mexico, and Canada, boosting global trade.  Another ongoing factor affecting trade with the rest of the world is the trend decline in US oil imports.  Petroleum imports declined 0.5% in September, are down 6.2% from a year ago, and have been a large contributor to slow trade growth.  Back in 2005 US petroleum and petroleum product imports were eleven times exports.  In September, these imports were 1.7 times exports.  This is also why oil prices have not spiked back to old highs even though the Middle East is in turmoil.  The US has become an important global petroleum producer, bringing a stabilizing effect to the world.  Overall, we expect real GDP growth to accelerate in the coming year and expect some widening in the trade deficit as US consumers buy imports with their healthy gains in income.

Click here for a PDF version
Posted on Friday, November 4, 2016 @ 10:57 AM • Post Link Share: 
Print this post Printer Friendly

These posts were prepared by First Trust Advisors L.P., and reflect the current opinion of the authors. They are based upon sources and data believed to be accurate and reliable. Opinions and forward looking statements expressed are subject to change without notice. This information does not constitute a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any security.
The information presented is not intended to constitute an investment recommendation for, or advice to, any specific person. By providing this information, First Trust is not undertaking to give advice in any fiduciary capacity within the meaning of ERISA, the Internal Revenue Code or any other regulatory framework. Financial professionals are responsible for evaluating investment risks independently and for exercising independent judgment in determining whether investments are appropriate for their clients.
First Trust Portfolios L.P.  Member SIPC and FINRA. (Form CRS)   •  First Trust Advisors L.P. (Form CRS)
Home |  Important Legal Information |  Privacy Policy |  California Privacy Policy |  Business Continuity Plan |  FINRA BrokerCheck
Copyright © 2022 All rights reserved.