Home   Logon   Mobile Site   Research and Commentary   About Us   Call 1.800.621.1675 or Email Us       Follow Us: 

Search by Ticker, Keyword or CUSIP       

Blog Home
   Brian Wesbury
Chief Economist
Click for Bio
Follow Brian on Twitter Follow Brian on LinkedIn View Videos on YouTube
   Bob Stein
Deputy Chief Economist
Click for Bio
Follow Bob on Twitter Follow Bob on LinkedIn View Videos on YouTube
  New Orders for Durable Goods Rose 4.8% in October
Posted Under: Data Watch • Durable Goods


Implications: Durable goods producers had plenty to be thankful for in October.  After a long period of weakness orders were up for the fourth month in a row, with orders showing the largest single-month rise in a year.  And while gains were mostly due to aircraft, which are extremely volatile from month to month, orders excluding transportation items rose a healthy 1% in October.  Orders outside the transportation industry have been on the rise, up at a 5.2% annual rate in the past three months compared to a 3% annual rate in the past six months and an increase of just 0.3% over the past year.  The largest gain outside the transportation sector came from fabricated metal products, with strength seen in a vast majority of all other major categories.  This may be, in part, a sign of improvement in the energy sector, which had been pulling down machinery investment since oil prices started declining in mid-2014.  Shipments of "core" capital goods - non-defense, excluding aircraft – rose 0.2% in October, and if unchanged in November and December will be up at a 1.8% annual rate in the fourth quarter.  This series is important for GDP and is finally showing life. Another plus in the report was a 0.4% increase in new orders for "core" capital goods, now up in four of the last five months.  In employment news this morning, new claims for unemployment insurance rose 18,000 last week to 251,000, the 90th week in a row below 300,000.  Continuing claims increased 60,000 to 2.043 million.  Plugging these figures into our models suggests next week's payroll report should show a gain in the 150,000 - 175,000 range for November.  Keep in mind, though, that November's initial report is often revised up substantially in later months.  As a whole, today's reports were solid and show a healthy economy heading into what appears to be a virtually guaranteed rate hike when the Fed meets in mid-December.

Click here for PDF version

Posted on Wednesday, November 23, 2016 @ 10:52 AM • Post Link Share: 
Print this post Printer Friendly

These posts were prepared by First Trust Advisors L.P., and reflect the current opinion of the authors. They are based upon sources and data believed to be accurate and reliable. Opinions and forward looking statements expressed are subject to change without notice. This information does not constitute a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any security.
The information presented is not intended to constitute an investment recommendation for, or advice to, any specific person. By providing this information, First Trust is not undertaking to give advice in any fiduciary capacity within the meaning of ERISA, the Internal Revenue Code or any other regulatory framework. Financial professionals are responsible for evaluating investment risks independently and for exercising independent judgment in determining whether investments are appropriate for their clients.
First Trust Portfolios L.P.  Member SIPC and FINRA. (Form CRS)   •  First Trust Advisors L.P. (Form CRS)
Home |  Important Legal Information |  Privacy Policy |  California Privacy Policy |  Business Continuity Plan |  FINRA BrokerCheck
Copyright © 2022 All rights reserved.