Home   Logon   Mobile Site   Research and Commentary   About Us   Call 1.800.621.1675 or Email Us       Follow Us: 

Search by Ticker, Keyword or CUSIP       
 
 

Blog Home
   Brian Wesbury
Chief Economist
 
Click for Bio
Follow Brian on Twitter Follow Brian on LinkedIn View Videos on YouTube
   Bob Stein
Deputy Chief Economist
Click for Bio
Follow Bob on Twitter Follow Bob on LinkedIn View Videos on YouTube
 
  The Trade Deficit Came in at $40.9 Billion in April
Posted Under: Autos • Data Watch • Trade

 
Implications: Hold off on trade for a moment. Americans bought cars and light trucks at a 17.8 million annual rate in May, up 7.8% from last month, up 6.3% from a year ago, and the fastest pace since 2005. As a result, it now looks like auto sales could hit 17.5 million in 2015, which would be the highest pace for any year on record. So much for the theory that consumers aren't spending. Meanwhile, the ADP report says private payrolls were up 201,000 in May. Plugging this into our models suggests nonfarm payrolls will be up 242,000 for the month. (The official release arrives Friday morning and our forecast may change based on tomorrow's report on unemployment claims.) On the trade front, the trade deficit in goods and services returned to more normal levels in April, as exports rose while imports fell. West Coast port strikes ended in late February, which meant ships that had been sitting for weeks and months, out in the Pacific, finally got unloaded in March, which is why imports and the trade deficit surged that month. In April, the trade deficit shrank closer to more normal levels, as the strike-related backlog was clearing out. Looking past strike-related issues and month-to-month volatility, the trade deficit has been relatively stable over the past few years, with a smaller trade deficit in oil and a slightly larger deficit in other goods, powered by growing purchasing power among US consumers and businesses. We expect to revert to this trend in the year ahead. Meanwhile, today's data show why recent press stories about the weakness of OPEC are true. Back in 2005 the US petroleum and petroleum product imports were eleven times exports. In April, these imports were only 1.8 times exports. The US is headed toward energy independence thanks to fracking and horizontal drilling. Entrepreneurs and engineers have changed the way the world works and there's more to come.

Click here for a PDF version
Posted on Wednesday, June 3, 2015 @ 11:35 AM • Post Link Share: 
Print this post Printer Friendly

These posts were prepared by First Trust Advisors L.P., and reflect the current opinion of the authors. They are based upon sources and data believed to be accurate and reliable. Opinions and forward looking statements expressed are subject to change without notice. This information does not constitute a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any security.
 
The information presented is not intended to constitute an investment recommendation for, or advice to, any specific person. By providing this information, First Trust is not undertaking to give advice in any fiduciary capacity within the meaning of ERISA, the Internal Revenue Code or any other regulatory framework. Financial professionals are responsible for evaluating investment risks independently and for exercising independent judgment in determining whether investments are appropriate for their clients.
First Trust Portfolios L.P.  Member SIPC and FINRA. (Form CRS)   •  First Trust Advisors L.P. (Form CRS)
Home |  Important Legal Information |  Privacy Policy |  California Privacy Policy |  Business Continuity Plan |  FINRA BrokerCheck
Copyright © 2020 All rights reserved.