Home   Logon   Mobile Site   Research and Commentary   About Us   Call 1.800.621.1675 or Email Us       Follow Us: 

Search by Ticker, Keyword or CUSIP       

Blog Home
   Brian Wesbury
Chief Economist
Click for Bio
Follow Brian on Twitter Follow Brian on LinkedIn View Videos on YouTube
   Bob Stein
Deputy Chief Economist
Click for Bio
Follow Bob on Twitter Follow Bob on LinkedIn View Videos on YouTube
  Retail Sales Increased 0.1% in October
Posted Under: Data Watch • Retail Sales
Supporting Image for Blog Post

Implications: Before you worry about a slowdown in consumer spending, keep in mind that retail sales still eked out a 0.1% gain in October despite a 0.5% drop in autos and a 0.9% drop in sales at gas stations due to lower gas prices (a huge benefit to the consumer). Excluding autos and gas stations, retail sales increased a respectable 0.3%. Gas station sales are now down a whopping 20.1% from a year ago. However, the volume (gallons) of gas sales is picking up - the effect of prices on supply and demand works again. In the twelve months through August (the latest data available) Americans drove the most miles on record. Overall retail sales are up a Plow Horse 1.7% from a year ago, but a much stronger 4.1% excluding gas. "Core" sales, which exclude autos, building materials, and gas stations (the most volatile sectors) were up 0.3% in October, the eighth straight monthly gain, and are up 3.4% from a year ago. Plugging today's report into our models suggests "real" (inflation-adjusted) consumer spending, on goods and services combined, will be up at a 2.0% annual rate in Q4 while real GDP grows at around a 2.5% rate. In other words, the economy remains a Plow Horse. In other recent news, new claims for unemployment insurance were steady at 276,000 last week, the 36th straight week below 300,000. Continuing claims increased 5,000 to 2.174 million. Combined, these figures suggest continued solid payroll growth in November.

Click here for PDF version
Posted on Friday, November 13, 2015 @ 10:46 AM • Post Link Share: 
Print this post Printer Friendly

These posts were prepared by First Trust Advisors L.P., and reflect the current opinion of the authors. They are based upon sources and data believed to be accurate and reliable. Opinions and forward looking statements expressed are subject to change without notice. This information does not constitute a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any security.
The information presented is not intended to constitute an investment recommendation for, or advice to, any specific person. By providing this information, First Trust is not undertaking to give advice in any fiduciary capacity within the meaning of ERISA, the Internal Revenue Code or any other regulatory framework. Financial professionals are responsible for evaluating investment risks independently and for exercising independent judgment in determining whether investments are appropriate for their clients.
First Trust Portfolios L.P.  Member SIPC and FINRA. (Form CRS)   •  First Trust Advisors L.P. (Form CRS)
Home |  Important Legal Information |  Privacy Policy |  California Privacy Policy |  Business Continuity Plan |  FINRA BrokerCheck
Copyright © 2023 All rights reserved.