Home Logon FTA Investment Managers Blog Subscribe About Us Contact Us

Search by Ticker, Keyword or CUSIP       

Blog Home
   Brian Wesbury
Chief Economist
X •  LinkedIn
   Bob Stein
Deputy Chief Economist
X •  LinkedIn
  New Orders for Durable Goods Declined 1.0% in January
Posted Under: Data Watch • Durable Goods • Employment
Supporting Image for Blog Post

Implications: Durable goods declined 1% in January, but the loss was not as large as the consensus expected and was primarily due to a large drop in aircraft orders, which are extremely volatile from month to month. Orders excluding transportation rose 1.1% in January, the largest gain in eight months, led by fabricated metals. Although shipments of "core" capital goods, which exclude defense and aircraft, slipped 0.8% in January, we think that part of the report was hurt by weather, which slowed all sorts of business activity around the country last month. And, despite the drop in January, shipments of core capital goods are up at a 6% annual rate in the past six months. We still believe both orders and shipments will accelerate in 2014. Consumer purchasing power is growing and debt ratios are low, leaving room for an upswing in appliances. Meanwhile, businesses have record profits and balance sheet cash, leaving more room for business investment. Looking ahead, perhaps the best news in today's report was that unfilled orders for core capital goods rose 0.8% in January, hitting a new record high, and are up 9% from a year ago. In other news this morning, initial claims for unemployment insurance increased 14,000 last week to 348,000. Continuing claims increased 8,000 to 2.96 million. Plugging these figures into our payroll models suggests a February gain of 165,000. This forecast, which may change in the week ahead, is slightly higher than the 150,000 the consensus expects.

Click here for a PDF version
Posted on Thursday, February 27, 2014 @ 10:27 AM • Post Link Print this post Printer Friendly

These posts were prepared by First Trust Advisors L.P., and reflect the current opinion of the authors. They are based upon sources and data believed to be accurate and reliable. Opinions and forward looking statements expressed are subject to change without notice. This information does not constitute a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any security.
The information presented is not intended to constitute an investment recommendation for, or advice to, any specific person. By providing this information, First Trust is not undertaking to give advice in any fiduciary capacity within the meaning of ERISA, the Internal Revenue Code or any other regulatory framework. Financial professionals are responsible for evaluating investment risks independently and for exercising independent judgment in determining whether investments are appropriate for their clients.
Follow First Trust:  
First Trust Portfolios L.P.  Member SIPC and FINRA. (Form CRS)   •  First Trust Advisors L.P. (Form CRS)
Home |  Important Legal Information |  Privacy Policy |  California Privacy Policy |  Business Continuity Plan |  FINRA BrokerCheck
Copyright © 2024 All rights reserved.