Home   Logon   Mobile Site   Research and Commentary   About Us   Call 1.800.621.1675 or Email Us       Follow Us: 

Search by Ticker, Keyword or CUSIP       
 
 

Blog Home
   Brian Wesbury
Chief Economist
 
Click for Bio
Follow Brian on Twitter Follow Brian on LinkedIn View Videos on YouTube
   Bob Stein
Deputy Chief Economist
Click for Bio
Follow Bob on Twitter Follow Bob on LinkedIn View Videos on YouTube
 
  Housing Starts Rose 6.8% in May to a 0.914 Million Annual Rate
Posted Under: Data Watch • Home Starts

 
Implications: Housing starts bounced back in May and continued the upward trend that began in 2011. Although the vast majority of the gain was due to the volatile multi-family sector and overall starts came in below consensus expectations, single-family starts are up 16.3% from a year ago and the total number of homes under construction has increased for 21 consecutive months. We expect this trend to continue. Although housing permits declined 3.1% in May, they are up 20.8% from a year ago. Single-family permits were up in May and up 24.6% in the past year. Based on population growth and "scrappage," housing starts will eventually rise to about 1.5 million units per year (probably by 2015). The bottom line is that no one should get worked up over every zig and zag in the data. Sometimes one indicator ticks down, like building permits; other times an indicator, like housing starts, will surge up above the underlying growth trend. That's what a recovery looks like. In other recent housing news, the NAHB index, which measures confidence among home builders, rose to 52 in June from 44 in May. This was the highest level since March 2006 and the eight point upward move was the largest monthly gain since September 2002. In other news yesterday, the Empire State index, a measure of manufacturing sentiment in New York, rose to a three month high of +7.8 in June from -1.4 in May. These data are consistent with our forecast that real GDP is growing at a 2.5% annual rate in the second quarter.

Click here for a PDF version
Posted on Tuesday, June 18, 2013 @ 9:40 AM • Post Link Share: 
Print this post Printer Friendly

These posts were prepared by First Trust Advisors L.P., and reflect the current opinion of the authors. They are based upon sources and data believed to be accurate and reliable. Opinions and forward looking statements expressed are subject to change without notice. This information does not constitute a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any security.
 
The information presented is not intended to constitute an investment recommendation for, or advice to, any specific person. By providing this information, First Trust is not undertaking to give advice in any fiduciary capacity within the meaning of ERISA, the Internal Revenue Code or any other regulatory framework. Financial professionals are responsible for evaluating investment risks independently and for exercising independent judgment in determining whether investments are appropriate for their clients.
First Trust Portfolios L.P.  Member SIPC and FINRA. (Form CRS)   •  First Trust Advisors L.P. (Form CRS)
Home |  Important Legal Information |  Privacy Policy |  California Privacy Policy |  Business Continuity Plan |  FINRA BrokerCheck
Copyright © 2020 All rights reserved.