Home   Logon   Mobile Site   Research and Commentary   About Us   Call 1.800.621.1675 or Email Us       Follow Us: 

Search by Ticker, Keyword or CUSIP       
 
 

Blog Home
   Brian Wesbury
Chief Economist
 
Click for Bio
Follow Brian on Twitter Follow Brian on LinkedIn View Videos on YouTube
   Bob Stein
Deputy Chief Economist
Click for Bio
Follow Bob on Twitter Follow Bob on LinkedIn View Videos on YouTube
 
  Non-farm payrolls increased 115K in April
Posted Under: Data Watch • Employment

 
Implications:  The headline payroll numbers fell short of consensus expectations in April, rising 115,000 overall and 130,000 for the private sector. However, the Labor Department once again made large upward revisions to prior months. Including these revisions, nonfarm payrolls were up 168,000 and private payrolls were up 196,000, both beating consensus expectations. Some analysts ignore these revisions, but we think that's a big mistake. Monthly revisions to the original payroll report have now been up for ten straight months and have averaged about 40,000 per month during this period. As a result, without revisions analysts have a systematically and downwardly biased impression about the job market. Meanwhile, some analysts may discount the drop in the unemployment rate to 8.1%, given that the drop was due to a decline in the labor force.  However, in the past year, the unemployment rate has dropped 0.9 percentage points (from 9% in April 2011) while the labor force has grown 700,000. In other words, the trend decline in the jobless rate in the past year is not due to fewer people looking for work. Another piece of good news in today's report is that the median duration of unemployment dropped to 19.4 weeks, the lowest level since 2009. Total hours worked increased 0.1% in April and are up 2.1% from a year ago. Although cash wages were unchanged in April, they are up 1.8% in the past year. Combining hours and wages, total cash wages are up 4% from a year ago, which is still outpacing inflation. The labor market is still far from where it was before the recession started. In the 20 years before the recession started, the unemployment rate averaged 5.5%. With the right set of public policies, we see no reason why we can't get there again. But the fact that we're not there yet should not prevent us from recognizing the progress that we're making. 

Click here for a PDF version.
Posted on Friday, May 4, 2012 @ 9:32 AM • Post Link Share: 
Print this post Printer Friendly

These posts were prepared by First Trust Advisors L.P., and reflect the current opinion of the authors. They are based upon sources and data believed to be accurate and reliable. Opinions and forward looking statements expressed are subject to change without notice. This information does not constitute a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any security.
 
The information presented is not intended to constitute an investment recommendation for, or advice to, any specific person. By providing this information, First Trust is not undertaking to give advice in any fiduciary capacity within the meaning of ERISA, the Internal Revenue Code or any other regulatory framework. Financial professionals are responsible for evaluating investment risks independently and for exercising independent judgment in determining whether investments are appropriate for their clients.
First Trust Portfolios L.P.  Member SIPC and FINRA. (Form CRS)   •  First Trust Advisors L.P. (Form CRS)
Home |  Important Legal Information |  Privacy Policy |  California Privacy Policy |  Business Continuity Plan |  FINRA BrokerCheck
Copyright © 2021 All rights reserved.