|
|
 |
|
|
|
|
Brian Wesbury
Chief Economist
|
|
Bob Stein
Deputy Chief Economist
|
|
 | The ISM Manufacturing index declined to 53.5 in May |
|
| Posted Under: Data Watch • ISM |
Implications: Manufacturing data came in weaker than expected today, but as we said in our Monday Morning Outlook two weeks ago, the temporary slowdown we are seeing is related to the Japanese disasters, the spring auto shutdowns that usually occur in the summer, as well as the deadly and devastating tornado season that we have had through much of the country. Even with this slowdown, manufacturing continues to grow. The only real bad news in today's report was on inflation, where the prices paid index showed elevated inflation again in May. In other news this morning, the ADP Employment index, a measure of private sector payrolls, increased 38,000 in May, well less than the consensus expected. We are forecasting that the official Labor Department report released Friday will show a gain of about 110,000 for private sector payrolls. In addition, construction increased 0.4% in April (-0.5% including downward revisions for March). The increase in April was led by home improvements and commercial construction (power plants, communication facilities, and educational buildings). We project that, in general, both home building and commercial construction will be moving upward from current levels, although certainly not every month. Also the Case-Shiller index, a measure of home prices in the 20 largest metro areas, declined 0.2% in March (seasonally-adjusted) and is down 3.5% versus a year ago. Prices should start turning up later this year. Excess inventories remain large, but the pace of inventory reductions is very rapid.
Click here to view the entire report.
|
|
|
These posts were prepared by First Trust Advisors L.P., and reflect the current opinion of the authors. They are based upon sources and data believed to be accurate and reliable. Opinions and forward looking statements expressed are subject to change without notice. This information does not constitute a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any security.
|
|
Archive
Search by Topic
|
|
|
The information presented is not intended to constitute an investment recommendation for, or advice to, any specific person. By providing this information, First Trust is not undertaking to give advice in any fiduciary capacity within the meaning of ERISA, the Internal Revenue Code or any other regulatory framework. Financial professionals are responsible for evaluating investment risks independently and for exercising independent judgment in determining whether investments are appropriate for their clients.
|