Home Logon FTA Investment Managers Blog Subscribe About Us Contact Us

Search by Ticker, Keyword or CUSIP       
Blog Home
Bob Carey
Chief Market Strategist
X •  LinkedIn

  One Man’s Take on the Potential Upside of the S&P 500
Posted Under: Broader Stock Market
Supporting Image for Blog Post


Past Performance is no guarantee of future results.

View from the Observation Deck

  1. The average recovery period from a bear market in the S&P 500 is 39 months. (InvesTech Research)
  2. The S&P 500 has never failed to recover.
  3. The most recent bear market in U.S. stocks bottomed on 3/9/09. So we are a little more than 31 months into the recovery  as 10/19/11. 
  4. As of the close of trading on 10/18/11, the S&P 500 would need to rally 27.7% to reach its previous high  of 1565.15 on 10/9/07. Hence recover. 
  5. While we would not be so bold as to say we could experience a rally of the magnitude of 27.7% over the next 8 months, we can offer perspective.
  6. From 1926-2010, the S&P 500 posted a calendar year total return that exceeded 27% a total of 20 times (see chart). Nearly 1 out of every 4 years. 
  7. We believe that a rally can occur providing we get a meaningful debt stabilization package for Greece and/or others from the European Union.
  8. We would hope that such an announcement will come soon. 
  9. The forward-looking P/E on the S&P 500 was 12.23 as of 10/18/11. (Bloomberg)
  10. Stocks, in our opinion, are inexpensive on a historical basis and offer the potential for significant upside.

Posted on Wednesday, October 19, 2011 @ 2:36 PM • Post Link Print this post Printer Friendly

These posts were prepared by First Trust Advisors L.P., and reflect the current opinion of the authors. They are based upon sources and data believed to be accurate and reliable. Opinions and forward looking statements expressed are subject to change without notice. This information does not constitute a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any security.
Search Posts
Market Commentary and Analysis
Market Commentary Video
Monthly Talking Points
Quarterly Newsletter
Market Observations
Subscribe To Receive Email

Perspective on the 3rd Quarter
Preferred Securities Offer Edge Over Common Shares of Financials in Current Climate
Companies Have Plenty Of Room To Boost Dividends
Talking Points - A Recap of September 2011
Sell-Off in High Yield Corporate Bonds Pushes Yields Back to Longer-Term Norm
Dollar Beating All Assets in September Undermines S&P U.S. Debt Downgrade - Bloomberg.com
Why U.S. Stock Funds Could See Year-End Rally - MarketWatch.com
Come in off the Ledge
Adding High-Dividend Stocks to Your Portfolio
The Market Responds to the Twist
Skip Navigation Links.
Search by Topic
Skip Navigation Links.

The information presented is not intended to constitute an investment recommendation for, or advice to, any specific person. By providing this information, First Trust is not undertaking to give advice in any fiduciary capacity within the meaning of ERISA, the Internal Revenue Code or any other regulatory framework. Financial professionals are responsible for evaluating investment risks independently and for exercising independent judgment in determining whether investments are appropriate for their clients.
Follow First Trust:  
First Trust Portfolios L.P.  Member SIPC and FINRA. (Form CRS)   •  First Trust Advisors L.P. (Form CRS)
Home |  Important Legal Information |  Privacy Policy |  California Privacy Policy |  Business Continuity Plan |  FINRA BrokerCheck
Copyright © 2024 All rights reserved.