Moody’s reported that its trailing 12-month global speculative-grade default rate stood at 4.5% at the end of August 2026 (preliminary results), up from 4.4% in July. Its baseline scenario sees the global default rate declining to 3.6% in December 2026. For comparison, Moody’s puts the global historical average default rate at 4.2%. The U.S. speculative-grade default rate was 5.3% in August. Moody’s baseline scenario sees the U.S. default rate falling to 4.3% in December 2026.