Moody's reported that its trailing 12-month global speculative-grade default rate stood at 4.4% at the end of July 2026 (preliminary results), up from 4.1% in December 2025. Its baseline scenario sees the global default rate declining to 3.2% in December 2026. For comparison, Moody's puts the global historical average default rate at 4.2%. The U.S. speculative-grade default rate stood at 5.0% in July. Moody’s baseline scenario sees the U.S. default rate falling to 3.7% in December 2026.