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  Consumer Delinquency Rates
Posted Under: Sectors
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View from the Observation Deck

For today’s post, we compare the delinquency rate on consumer loans issued by all U.S. commercial banks (“consumer delinquency rate”) to the price of the S&P 500 Consumer Discretionary Index, over time. We use data from the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, retrieved from FRED, for the former set of observations. As delinquency data is released on a lagging time frame, our observations end in Q2’25.

At 30.14%, the S&P 500 Consumer Discretionary Index (“Consumer Discretionary Index”) boasted the fourth-highest total return of the 11 major sectors that comprise the S&P 500 Index (“Index”) in 2024. The Consumer Discretionary Index has not fared as well in 2025, posting a year-to-date (YTD) total return of 6.82% thru 10/28/25.

For comparison, the Index saw a total return of 18.36% over the same period. Consumer confidence appears to be waning, adding pressure to the Discretionary sector. The Conference Board reported that its consumer confidence index stood at 94.6 in October 2025, down from 109.5 in October 2024. One measure of the survey revealed that American’s short-term outlook regarding their income, the job market, and business conditions declined by 2.9 points month-over-month to a reading of 71.5 (a reading of 80 or lower is seen as a marker that can signal a recession ahead).

The consumer delinquency rate has eased of late and remains below its long-term historical average.

The consumer delinquency rate most recently stood at 2.76%, down from its most recent high of 2.77% (Q1’25), and below its long-term average of 3.06% (Q1’87 – Q2’25). Credit card delinquencies also declined from recent highs. The delinquency rate for credit cards issued by all insured commercial banks surged to 3.24% at the end of Q2’24, its highest level since the close of Q4’11. In Q2’25, however, the metric stood at 3.05%.

Takeaway: The consumer delinquency rate stood at 2.76% at the end of Q2’25, down slightly from 2.77% in the previous quarter and well-below its all-time high of 4.85%. Delinquency rates for credit cards have plateaued of late, settling at 3.05% in both Q1 and Q2 of 2025. Consumption continues to increase despite waning consumer confidence. As many investors may be aware, feelings are not fact. As we see it, consumer sentiment data masks the fact that U.S. households control more wealth than ever before (a record $176.3 trillion in Q2’25). Given their sizeable contribution to GDP, we maintain that a healthy U.S. consumer may play an integral role in the U.S. avoiding an economic recession. We will continue to monitor the delinquency rate among consumers and report on changes.

This chart is for illustrative purposes only and not indicative of any actual investment. The illustration excludes the effects of taxes and brokerage commissions and other expenses incurred when investing. Investors cannot invest directly in an index. The S&P 500 Consumer Discretionary Index is an unmanaged index which includes the stocks in the consumer discretionary sector of the S&P 500 Index. The S&P 500 Index is a capitalization-weighted index comprised of 500 stocks used to measure large-cap U.S. stock market performance. Consumer delinquency data is seasonally adjusted.

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Posted on Thursday, October 30, 2025 @ 2:48 PM • Post Link Print this post Printer Friendly
  Passive vs. Active Fund Flows
Posted Under: Conceptual Investing
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View from the Observation Deck

Investors directing capital into U.S. mutual funds and exchange traded funds (ETFs) continued to favor passive investing over active management during the 12-month period ended 9/30/25.

Passive mutual funds and ETFs reported estimated net inflows totaling $918 billion, while active funds reported estimated net outflows totaling $177 billion over the trailing 12-months ended 9/30/25. The top three active categories by trailing 12-month net inflows were: Taxable Bonds (+$224 billion), Nontraditional Equity (+$69 billion), and Municipal Bonds (+$38 billion). For comparison, the top three passive categories were U.S. Equity (+$396 billion), Taxable Bond (+$269 billion), and International Equity (+$122 billion).

Equity mutual funds and ETFs saw much lower inflows than their fixed income counterparts over the trailing 12-month period ended 9/30/25.

Combined, active and passive equities experienced inflows of $77 billion over the trailing 12-months (not in table). For comparison, the active and passive Taxable and Municipal Bond categories reported net inflows totaling $547 billion over the same time frame. The S&P 500, S&P MidCap 400, and S&P SmallCap 600 Indices posted total returns of 17.56%, 6.10%, and 3.61%, respectively, over the 12-months ended 9/30/25, according to data from Bloomberg. With respect to foreign equities, the MSCI Emerging Net Total Return and MSCI Daily Total Return Net World (ex U.S.) Indices posted total returns of 17.32% and 16.03%, respectively, over the same time frame. For comparison, the Bloomberg Municipal Long Bond, Bloomberg Global-Aggregate Bond, and Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Indices saw total returns of -1.34%, 2.40%, and 2.88% respectively, over the period.

Takeaway: Passive mutual funds and ETFs saw inflows of $918 billion compared to outflows of $177 billion for active funds over the trailing 12-month period ended 9/30/25. U.S. Equities produced the largest disparity between active and passive flows, with active shedding $347 billion compared to inflows of $396 billion for passive funds. Net inflows among active and passive equity ETFs totaled just $77 billion over the past 12-months, compared to net inflows of $547 billion for active and passive fixed income ETFs over the same time frame. From a monthly perspective, inflows into commodities-focused funds totaled $9.9 billion in September 2025, the most since April 2020. Municipal bond flows experienced a similar outcome, with net inflows of $8.9 billion in September, the most since August 2021.

This chart is for illustrative purposes only and not indicative of any actual investment. The illustration excludes the effects of taxes and brokerage commissions and other expenses incurred when investing. Investors cannot invest directly in an index. The S&P 500 Index is an unmanaged index of 500 companies used to measure large-cap U.S. stock market performance. The S&P MidCap 400 Index is a capitalization-weighted index that tracks the mid-range sector of the U.S. stock market. The S&P SmallCap 600 Index is a capitalization-weighted index that tracks U.S. companies with a small market capitalization. The MSCI Emerging Markets Index is a free float-adjusted market capitalization index that is designed to measure equity market performance of emerging markets. The MSCI World (ex U.S.) Index is a free-float weighted index designed to measure the equity market performance of developed markets. The Bloomberg Municipal Long Bond Index cover the USD-denominated long-term tax exempt bond market, including local general obligation, revenue, insured, and prefunded bonds. The Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Bond Index measures the investment grade, U.S. dollar-denominated, fixed rate taxable bond market. The Bloomberg Global Aggregate Bond Index measures global investment grade debt in local currency markets. 

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Posted on Tuesday, October 28, 2025 @ 10:12 AM • Post Link Print this post Printer Friendly
  Worst-Performing S&P 500 Index Subsectors YTD (thru 10/21)
Posted Under: Sectors
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View from the Observation Deck

Today's blog post is for those investors who want to drill down below the sector level to see what is not performing well in the stock market this year. The S&P 500 Index (“Index”) was comprised of 11 sectors and 126 subsectors as of 10/17/25, according to S&P Dow Jones Indices. The 15 worst-performing subsectors in today’s chart posted total returns ranging from -10.52% (Apparel & Accessories) to -39.47% (Commodity Chemicals) over the period. Click here to view our last post on this topic.

  • As indicated in the chart above, the S&P 500 Consumer Discretionary Index accounts for three of the 15 worst-performing subsectors year-to-date (YTD) through 10/21.

  • Each of the 11 sectors that comprise the broader Index saw positive total returns YTD through 10/21. Energy and Consumer Discretionary were the worst performers, posting total returns of 4.15% and 5.29%, respectively. The broader S&P 500 Index posted a total return of 15.68% over the time frame.

  • As of 10/17/25, the smallest S&P 500 Index sector by weight was Materials at 1.75%, according to S&P Dow Jones Indices. Real Estate and Utilities were the next-largest sectors with weightings of 1.94% and 2.47%, respectively.


Takeaway: S&P 500 Index returns have been volatile this year, with total returns ranging as low as -14.99% (through 4/8) and as high as 15.68% ( YTD through 10/21). Three of the worst-performing subsectors in today’s chart belong to the S&P 500 Consumer Discretionary Index, which is the second-worst performing sector in the Index YTD. Notably, the sector has produced a total return of 5.29% YTD, despite declining by 22.97% at its lowest point in 2025. As always, there are no guarantees, but there could be some potential deep value opportunities in this group of subsectors. For those investors who have interest, there are a growing number of packaged products, such as exchange-traded funds, that feature S&P 500 Index subsectors.

This chart is for illustrative purposes only and not indicative of any actual investment. The illustration excludes the effects of taxes and brokerage commissions and other expenses incurred when investing. Investors cannot invest directly in an index. The S&P 500 Index is an unmanaged index of 500 companies used to measure large-cap U.S. stock market performance, while the S&P sector and subsector indices are capitalization-weighted and comprised of S&P 500 constituents representing a specific sector or industry. 

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Posted on Thursday, October 23, 2025 @ 2:49 PM • Post Link Print this post Printer Friendly
  Top-Performing S&P 500 Index Subsectors YTD (thru 10/17)
Posted Under: Sectors
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View from the Observation Deck

Today's blog post is for those investors who want to drill down below the sector level to see what is performing well in the stock market. The S&P 500 Index (“Index”) was comprised of 11 sectors and 126 subsectors on 10/17/25, according to S&P Dow Jones Indices. The 15 top-performing subsectors in today’s chart registered total returns ranging from 147.29% (Gold) to 35.76% (Aerospace & Defense). Click here to view our last post on this topic.

  • As indicated in the chart above, Industrials and Information Technology were tied for the highest number of top-performing subsectors (4) on a year-to-date (YTD) basis.

  • With respect to the 11 major sectors that comprise the Index, Communication Services posted the highest total return for the period captured in the chart, increasing by 24.84%. The second and third-best performers were Utilities and Information Technology, with total returns of 23.53% and 22.79%, respectively. The Index increased by 14.45% over the period.

  • As of 10/17/25, the most heavily weighted sector in the Index was Information Technology at 35.04%, according to S&P Dow Jones Indices. Financials and Consumer Discretionary were the next-largest sectors with weightings of 13.16% and 10.33%, respectively.

Takeaway: The Gold Index is the standout in today’s chart, having increased by an astounding 147.29% YTD through 10/17. Notably, one troy ounce of gold bullion was priced at a record $4,326.58 on 10/16/25, representing an increase of 64.85% YTD. Concerns over re-emergent inflation, persistent geopolitical strife, and elevated central bank demand are among the catalysts behind surging gold prices. Despite being the top performing sectors YTD, today’s chart is comprised of just one subsector each from the Communication Services and Utilities Indices. For comparison, Information Technology and Industrials, which were the third and fourth-best performing sectors account for eight of the 15 subsectors presented today. From our perspective, these sectors will likely benefit from continued AI and infrastructure investment over the near-term.

This chart is for illustrative purposes only and not indicative of any actual investment. The illustration excludes the effects of taxes and brokerage commissions and other expenses incurred when investing. Investors cannot invest directly in an index. The S&P 500 Index is an unmanaged index of 500 companies used to measure large-cap U.S. stock market performance, while the S&P sector and subsector indices are capitalization-weighted and comprised of S&P 500 constituents representing a specific sector or industry.

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Posted on Tuesday, October 21, 2025 @ 2:22 PM • Post Link Print this post Printer Friendly
  Money Market Fund Assets
Posted Under: Conceptual Investing
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View from the Observation Deck
Today’s blog post offers a visual representation of trends in money market fund assets over time. As the chart reveals, investors tend to utilize money market funds during times of turmoil such as the financial crisis in 2008 – 2009 and the COVID-19 pandemic of 2020. Recently, however, investors have been piling cash into money market accounts (see chart) despite compelling returns in the U.S. equity markets and declining interest rates. A note about the chart: we use the federal funds target rate (upper bound) as a proxy for short-term interest rates, such as those offered by taxable money market funds and other savings vehicles. We believe this proxy may offer insight into the potential effect of short-term rates on investor behavior.

  • Net assets invested in U.S. money market funds totaled a record $7.39 trillion on 10/8/25 (most recent weekly data), an increase of 14.07% from $6.47 trillion on 10/9/24. For comparison, the S&P 500 Index increased by 18.10% on a total return basis over the same period.

  • Since September 2024, the Federal Reserve (“Fed”) has announced four reductions to its federal funds target rate (upper bound), lowering it from 5.50% to 4.25% where it currently sits. Money market investors appear unfazed by these reductions, adding $1.08 trillion in assets between 9/18/24 (date the first cut was announced) & 10/8/25.

  • Futures markets suggest additional interest rate cuts this year. The implied year end federal funds target rate stood at 3.62% on 10/14/25.

  • The S&P 500 Index soared by 34.22% (total return) since its most recent low (4/8/25 to 10/14/25). 

Takeaway: Since the Fed’s initial rate hike on 3/16/22, total net assets invested in U.S. money market funds increased by 62.1% from $4.56 trillion to a record $7.39 trillion on 10/8/25. Money market assets have increased despite interest rate reductions (both actual and expected). Net assets invested in money market funds increased by $1.08 trillion over the period spanning the Fed’s first interest rate cut on 9/18/24 to 10/8/25. While money market funds offer principal stability and income, their total return has lagged the S&P 500 Index, which surged by 34.22% (total return) since its most recent low on 4/8/25. It remains our view that an allocation to equities will generate a higher return on capital than cash over time.

This chart is for illustrative purposes only and not indicative of any actual investment. Investors cannot invest directly in an index. The S&P 500 Index is a capitalization-weighted index comprised of 500 companies used to measure large-cap U.S. stock market performance.

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Posted on Thursday, October 16, 2025 @ 1:52 PM • Post Link Print this post Printer Friendly
  Increased Margins = Higher Valuations
Posted Under: Broader Stock Market
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View from the Observation Deck

The S&P 500 Index (“Index”) closed at 6,654.72 on 10/13/25, representing a price-only increase of a 33.55% since its most recent low of 4,982.77 just over six months prior (4/8/25). The Index’s meteoric rise has many investors questioning whether current price levels are sustainable, especially given comparatively stretched valuation metrics and eroding economic data. For today’s post, we set out to view current valuations, as measured by the Index’s price to earnings (P/E) ratio, through the lens of profitability, as measured by profit margins, over time. 

  • As revealed in today’s chart, there appears to be a positive correlation between profit margins and P/E ratios.
  • The Index’s P/E ratio increased from 15.03 in Q4’10 (start of our chart) to 25.57 in Q3’25. 
  • The Index’s profit margin stood at 13.62% in Q3’25, up from 9.57% in Q4’10, according to data from Bloomberg. For comparison, the Index’s record profit margin of 13.92% was set in Q2’21. 
  • While not in today’s chart, data from FactSet revealed that the four Index sectors with the highest estimated net profit margins for Q3’25 were as follows: Real Estate (34.1%), Information Technology (26.6%), Financials (19.1%), and Utilities (16.3%). 

Takeaway: As we see it, the Index’s elevated P/E ratio may not be cause for alarm, especially if coincident data supports higher valuations. As of 9/30/25, the P/E ratio for the Index stood at 27.57 - well above the chart’s time series average of 18.75. That said, the Index’s profit margins were near all-time highs as of the same date (13.62%). As the chart reveals, companies are increasingly effective at allocating capital and investors are reaping the rewards. Bear in mind that technology companies, which are estimated contribute the second-largest share of the Index’s net profits in Q3’25, accounted for 34.8% of the Index’s market capitalization as of 9/30/25. While we believe this concentration could lead to pain in the long run, determining the timing of that pain will be nearly impossible. Stay tuned!

This chart is for illustrative purposes only and not indicative of any actual investment. The illustration excludes the effects of taxes and brokerage commissions and other expenses incurred when investing. Investors cannot invest directly in an index. The S&P 500 Index is a capitalization-weighted index comprised of 500 companies used to measure large-cap U.S. stock market performance, while the 11 major S&P 500 Sector Indices are capitalization-weighted and comprised of S&P 500 constituents representing a specific sector.

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Posted on Tuesday, October 14, 2025 @ 12:56 PM • Post Link Print this post Printer Friendly
  Paying Dividends
Posted Under: Stock Dividends
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View from the Observation Deck

For many investors, dividend payments have become an ordinary and expected benefit of equity ownership. Of the 503 constituents in the S&P 500 Index (“Index”), 407 reported distributing a cash dividend to their equity owners as of 10/7/25. The impact of these distributions on the investment landscape has been nothing short of extraordinary, with dividends accounting for 36.7% of the total return of the Index between September 28, 1928, and September 30, 2025, according to data from Bloomberg.

  • Dividend payments from the Index’s constituents totaled a record $74.61 per share in 2024, up from $70.91 (previous record high) in 2023.

  • As of 10/9/25, dividend payments are estimated to increase to $80.86 and $84.75 per share in 2025 and 2026, respectively.

  • The Index’s dividend payout ratio stood at 34.80% on 10/8/25. A dividend payout ratio between 30% and 60% is typically a good sign that a dividend distribution is sustainable, according to Nasdaq.

  • Many investors view changes in dividend distributions as an indication of financial strength or weakness in the underlying company. Just seven dividend cuts and one suspension have been announced year-to-date through the end of September. For comparison, eleven dividends were cut and two were suspended over the same period last year.

Takeaway: While dividends continue to be one of the most efficient ways for companies to return capital to shareholders they also contribute meaningfully to overall returns. S&P Dow Jones Indices reported that dividend payments totaled a record $653.9 billion over the trailing 12-month period ended in June 2025, accounting for 1.5 percentage points of the Index’s 15.1% total return over the period. Additionally, dividends can act as a potent inflation hedge. Inflation, as measured by the consumer price index, increased by 35.9% over the 10-year period ended August 2025. Total dividends paid by the Index’s constituents increased by a staggering 80.9% over the same period.

This chart is for illustrative purposes only and not indicative of any actual investment. The illustration excludes the effects of taxes and brokerage commissions and other expenses incurred when investing. Investors cannot invest directly in an index. The S&P 500 Index is a capitalization-weighted index comprised of 500 companies used to measure large-cap U.S. stock market performance, while the 11 major S&P 500 Sector Indices are capitalization-weighted and comprised of S&P 500 constituents representing a specific sector.

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Posted on Thursday, October 9, 2025 @ 2:12 PM • Post Link Print this post Printer Friendly
  The Only Constant is Change…Usually
Posted Under: Sectors
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View from the Observation Deck

We are often asked what our favorite sectors are. Sometimes the answer is more evident than at other times and often it only makes sense via hindsight. Today’s blog post is one that we update each quarter to lend context to our responses. While the above chart does not contain yearly data, only two sectors in the S&P 500 Index (“Index”) have been the top-performer in back-to-back calendar years since 2005. Information Technology was the first, posting the highest total return in 2019 (+50.29%) and 2020 (43.89%). Energy was the second, posting the highest total return in 2021 (54.39%) and 2022 (65.43%), according to data from Bloomberg.

  • The top-performing sectors and their total returns in Q3’25 were as follows: Information Technology (13.19%), Communication Services (12.04%), and Consumer Discretionary (9.54%). The total return for the Index was 8.11% over the period. The other eight sectors generated total returns ranging from 7.57% (Utilities) to -2.36% (Consumer Staples).

  • By comparison, the total returns of the top-performing sectors in the third quarter of last year were as follows (not in chart): Utilities (19.37%), Real Estate (17.17%), and Industrials (11.55%). The worst-performing sectors for the period were: Communication Services (1.68%), Information Technology (1.61%), and Energy (-2.32%).

  • Sector rotation can occur rapidly. Case-in-point, the S&P 500 Energy and Health Care Indices were the worst-performing sectors in Q2’25, posting total returns of –8.56% and -7.18%, respectively, over the period. In Q3’25, however, they increased by 6.21% and 3.76% on a total return basis, respectively.

  • Click here to access our post featuring the top-performing sectors in Q4’23, Q1'24, Q2'24 and Q3’24.

Takeaway: While the top-performing sectors often vary from quarter to quarter, the S&P 500 Technology and Communication Indices have outperformed their peers in each of the last two quarters. Consumer discretionary stocks rounded out the trio of top performers for Q3’25, shrugging off growing economic concerns and an increasingly stretched U.S. consumer. This is the first time since Q2’23 that we observed the same top performer in back-to-back quarters (it was also technology last time). As we see it, technology and communication services companies continue to benefit from seemingly insatiable AI expenditure and dovish monetary policy expectations. In a late September report, Citigroup estimated that AI-related infrastructure spending will surpass $2.8 trillion through 2029, up from its previous estimate of $2.3 trillion, according to Reuters. Investors appear to be shedding less risky equities, with the S&P 500 Consumer Staples Index declining by 2.36% in Q3’25, making the sector the worst performer during the quarter. Will a different sector rise to the top in the fourth quarter of 2025? We look forward to seeing what the data reveals.

This chart is for illustrative purposes only and not indicative of any actual investment. The illustration excludes the effects of taxes and brokerage commissions or other expenses incurred when investing. Investors cannot invest directly in an index. The S&P 500 Index is an unmanaged index of 500 stocks used to measure large-cap U.S. stock market performance. The respective S&P 500 Sector Indices are capitalization-weighted and comprised of S&P 500 constituents representing a specific sector.  

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Posted on Tuesday, October 7, 2025 @ 2:17 PM • Post Link Print this post Printer Friendly
  S&P 500 Index Dividends & Stock Buybacks
Posted Under: Stock Dividends
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View from the Observation Deck
Today’s post tracks quarterly changes in capital distributed to shareholders through dividend distributions and stock buybacks over a two-year period. Aside from several outliers, dividend distributions have steadily increased over today’s set of observations. Comparatively, share buybacks continue to account for a larger share of total capital disbursements but exhibit greater variance.

  • Combined, stock dividends and share buybacks totaled a record $1.65 trillion (preliminary data) over the trailing 12-months ended in June 2025, up from $1.48 trillion over the same period ended in June 2024.

  • Dividend distributions increased to $165.2 billion in Q2’25, down from the record of $167.6 billion in Q4’24, but up from $153.4 billion in Q2’24. In total, the companies that comprise the S&P 500 Index (“Index”) distributed a record $653.9 billion in dividend payments over the trailing 12-months ended June 2025.

  • Stock buybacks totaled $234.6 billion in Q2’25, a decline of 20.1% from the record of $293.5 billion in Q1’25. Buybacks totaled $997.8 billion over the trailing 12-months ended June 2025, up from $877.5 billion over the same time frame last year. By contrast, the Index’s stock buybacks totaled a record $1.005 trillion over the trailing 12-months ended June 2022.

  • In Q2’25, the S&P 500 Index sectors that were most aggressive in repurchasing their stock were as follows (% of all stocks repurchased): Information Technology (28.6%); Financials (22.1%); and Communication Services (16.5%), according to data from S&P Dow Jones Indices.

Takeaway: Buybacks declined sharply in Q2’25, reflective of unpredictable economic policy and tariff concerns, as well as weakening economic data. Overall, just 67.6% of Index constituents participated in share repurchases in Q2’25, down from 76.8% in Q1’25. Buyback concentration remains high. S&P Dow Jones Indices reported that the top 20 companies accounted for 51.3% of all repurchases in Q2’25, up from 48.4% in Q1’25 and above the historical average of 47.7%. Utilities were the only sector to increase buyback expenditures in Q2’25. Even so, the sector accounted for just 0.4% ($0.93 billion) of total expenditures over the period. Despite the second quarter’s decline, Howard Silverblatt, Senior Index Analyst at S&P Dow Jone Indices believes that buybacks will return to near-record levels in Q3’25, citing clearer policy direction, increased buyback requirements to cover employee options, and price support. We will report back when third quarter data becomes available. 

This chart is for illustrative purposes only and not indicative of any actual investment. The illustration excludes the effects of taxes and brokerage commissions and other expenses incurred when investing. Investors cannot invest directly in an index. The S&P 500 Index is an unmanaged index of 500 companies used to measure large-cap U.S. stock market performance. The 11 major sector indices are capitalization-weighted and comprised of S&P 500 constituents representing a specific sector.

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Posted on Thursday, October 2, 2025 @ 4:15 PM • Post Link Print this post Printer Friendly
  A Snapshot of Bond Valuations
Posted Under: Bond Market
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View from the Observation Deck

Today’s blog post is intended to provide insight into the movement of bond prices amidst the current investment climate and prevailing interest rate policy. Aside from the most recent data, other dates in the chart are from prior posts we’ve written on this topic. Click here to view our last post in this series.

Prices for seven of the eight bond indices we track now stand at their time series highs.

Prices for seven of the eight indices increased since our last post, reflective, in our opinion, of the Federal Reserve’s (“Fed”) decision to reduce its policy rate from 4.50% to 4.25% on 9/17/25. Additional cuts are expected through the end of the year, which could cause fixed income prices to trend higher. On 9/26/25, the federal funds rate futures market was priced for an implied policy rate of 3.69% by year’s end.

Inflation has steadily increased since April.

Inflation, as measured by the trailing 12-month rate of change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI), stood at 2.9% in August 2025, up from its most recent low of 2.3% in April 2025. August’s observation pushes the metric even further from the Fed’s stated target of 2.0% and sets the CPI above its 25-year monthly average of 2.6%.

Takeaway: Seven of the eight fixed income indices in today’s chart saw prices increase since our last post on this topic. The Fed’s decision to cut interest rates in September was likely a significant catalyst behind these price movements. Notably, investors expect even lower interest rates by year’s end, despite an increase in the pace of rising prices. As of 9/26/25, the market implied end of year federal funds target rate was 3.69%, compared to 4.25% today. The Morningstar LSTA U.S. Leveraged Loan Index was the only index in today’s chart with an observed price decline since our last post. As many investors are likely aware, leveraged loans are typically offered by higher risk issuers and often pay a floating rate of interest to debt holders. These payments are generally tied to the Secured Overnight Financing Rate, which fluctuates based on prevailing interest rates. A lower Fed policy rate can cause a reduction in leveraged loan cash flows, leading to declining prices. We plan to update this post with relevant information in the fourth quarter.


This chart is for illustrative purposes only and not indicative of any actual investment. The illustration excludes the effects of taxes and brokerage commissions or other expenses incurred when investing. Investors cannot invest directly in an index. The Morningstar LSTA U.S. Leveraged Loan 100 Index is a market value-weighted index designed to measure the performance of the largest segment of the U.S. syndicated leveraged loan market. The ICE BofA U.S. High Yield Constrained Index tracks the performance of U.S. dollar denominated below investment grade corporate debt publicly issued in the U.S. domestic market. The ICE BofA 22+ Year U.S. Municipal Securities Index tracks the performance of U.S. dollar denominated investment grade tax-exempt debt publicly issued by U.S. states and territories, and their political subdivisions with a remaining term to maturity greater than or equal to 22 years. The ICE BofA Fixed Rate Preferred Securities Index tracks the performance of investment grade fixed rate U.S. dollar denominated preferred securities issued in the U.S. domestic market. The ICE BofA 7-10 Year U.S. Treasury Index tracks the performance of U.S. dollar denominated sovereign debt publicly issued by the U.S. government with a remaining term to maturity between 7 to 10 years. The ICE BofA U.S. Mortgage Backed Securities Index tracks the performance of U.S. dollar denominated fixed rate and hybrid residential mortgage pass-through securities publicly issued by U.S. agencies in the U.S. domestic market. The ICE BofA U.S. Corporate Index tracks the performance of U.S. dollar denominated investment grade corporate debt publicly issued in the U.S. domestic market. The ICE BofA Global Corporate Index tracks the performance of investment grade corporate debt publicly issued in the major domestic and Eurobond markets.

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Posted on Tuesday, September 30, 2025 @ 3:17 PM • Post Link Print this post Printer Friendly

These posts were prepared by First Trust Advisors L.P., and reflect the current opinion of the authors. They are based upon sources and data believed to be accurate and reliable. Opinions and forward looking statements expressed are subject to change without notice. This information does not constitute a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any security.
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S&P 500 index dividend payout vs stock buybacks
Corporate Earnings Estimates Signal Strength Ahead
A Snapshot of the S&P 500 Index Earnings Beat Rate
S&P 500 Index Earnings & Revenue Growth Rate Estimates
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