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  Worst-Performing S&P 500 Index Subsectors YTD (Thru 3/21)
Posted Under: Sectors
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View from the Observation Deck
 
Today's blog post is for those investors who want to drill down below the sector level to see what is not performing well in the stock market. The S&P 500 Index was comprised of 11 sectors and 131 subsectors as of 3/17/23 (most recent data), according to S&P Dow Jones Indices. The 15 worst-performing subsectors in the chart posted total returns ranging from -9.33% (Managed Health Care) to -51.73% (Alternative Carriers).   

  • As indicated in the chart above, four of the 15 worst-performing subsectors came from the S&P 500 Index Financials sector, followed by Health Care which had three subsectors represented. Alternative Carriers, a subsector of the Communication Services sector was the worst performer, posting a total return of -51.73% for the time period indicated in the chart. Click here to view our last post on the worst performing subsectors.
  • With respect to the 11 sectors that comprise the S&P 500 Index, Energy posted the worst total return for the period captured in the chart, falling by 7.35%, according to Bloomberg. The second-and third-worst performers were Utilities and Financials, with total returns of -6.19% and -6.12%, respectively. The S&P 500 Index posted a total return of 4.66% for the period.
  • Notably, while Communication Services has the worst subsector represented in today’s chart (Alternative Carriers), the sector has posted the highest total return (18.24% through 3/21/23) of the 11 sectors that make up the S&P 500 Index.
  • The most heavily weighted sector in the S&P 500 Index was Information Technology at 29.02% as of 3/17/23, according to S&P Dow Jones Indices. For comparison, the Consumer Discretionary and Communication Services sectors had weightings of 10.47% and 8.16%, respectively.
  • Excluding Real Estate, Consumer Discretionary had the highest estimated year-end price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio (24.99 as of 2/28) of the 11 sectors that comprise the S&P 500 Index, according to S&P Dow Jones Indices. Information Technology and Consumer Staples were second and third-highest at 23.00 and 20.13, respectively. Energy had the lowest estimated year-end P/E ratio of the group, coming in at 9.76.

Takeaway: The Financials sector accounts for four of the worst-performing subsectors in today’s chart. Month-to-date (MTD) thru 3/21/23, the Financials sector is down 10.08%. Its closest peer is the Real Estate sector, which has posted a MTD total return of -4.75% (not included in the chart). Given the recent turmoil in the banking world, this is to be expected, in our opinion. As always, there are no guarantees, but for the value oriented, contrarian investor, there could be some potential deep value opportunities within the 15 subsectors in this group. There is a growing number of packaged products, such as exchange-traded funds, that feature S&P 500 Index subsectors.

This chart is for illustrative purposes only and not indicative of any actual investment. The illustration excludes the effects of taxes and brokerage commissions and other expenses incurred when investing. Investors cannot invest directly in an index. The S&P 500 Index is an unmanaged index of 500 companies used to measure large-cap U.S. stock market performance, while the S&P sector and subsector indices are capitalization-weighted and comprised of S&P 500 constituents representing a specific sector or industry.

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Posted on Thursday, March 23, 2023 @ 3:03 PM • Post Link Share: 
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  Top-Performing S&P 500 Index Subsectors YTD (Thru 3/17)
Posted Under: Sectors
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View from the Observation Deck  

Today's blog post is for those investors who want to drill down below the sector level to see what is performing well in the stock market. The S&P 500 Index was comprised of 11 sectors and 131 subsectors as of 3/17/23, according to S&P Dow Jones Indices. The 15 top-performing subsectors in the chart posted total returns ranging from 11.68% (Trading Companies & Distributors) to 35.77% (Automobile Manufacturing).   

  • As indicated in the chart above, 6 of the 15 top-performing subsectors, including the top performing subsector year-to-date (Automobile Manufacturing), came from the S&P 500 Index Consumer Discretionary sector. Information Technology had four subsectors represented, while Communication Services and Industrials each had two subsectors represented. Notably, Energy, which accounted for all four of the top spots the last time we posted on this topic, does not make an appearance in today’s chart. Click here to view our last post on subsector performance.

Bolstered by purchases of long-lasting goods, consumer spending, as measured by personal consumption expenditures (PCE), grew by 1.8% month-over-month in January, the largest increase in the metric since March of 2021, according to Reuters. Reuters also noted that sales of motor vehicles increased by 7.1% in January, which may have been a catalyst to the Automobile Manufacturer subsector’s substantial outperformance relative to its peers, in our opinion.

  • With respect to the 11 sectors, Technology posted the highest total return for the period captured in the chart, increasing by 15.42%, according to Bloomberg. The second-and third-best performers were Communication Services and Consumer Discretionary, with total returns of 14.86% and 9.43%, respectively. The S&P 500 Index posted a total return of 2.40% for the period.
  • As of 3/17/23, the most heavily weighted sector in the S&P 500 Index was Information Technology at 29.02%, according to S&P Dow Jones Indices. For comparison, the Consumer Discretionary and Communication Services sectors had weightings of 10.47% and 8.16%, respectively.
  • Energy had the lowest estimated year-end price-to-earnings ratio (9.76 as of 2/28) of the 11 sectors that comprise the S&P 500 Index, according to S&P Dow Jones Indices. Financials was a distant second at 13.00. Not including Real Estate, Consumer Discretionary had highest P/E ratio for the sectors that comprise the S&P 500 Index, coming in at 24.99 as of 2/28.  

Takeaway: The Consumer Discretionary sector accounts for 6 of the top 15 subsectors, including the top performer, in today’s chart. In our view, January’s better-than-expected consumer spending data and an easing in the chips shortage likely provided a boost to the Consumer Discretionary and Technology sectors at the start of 2023. As we have discussed previously, the health of the consumer may prove to be paramount as it relates to the U.S. economy avoiding recession. There are a growing number of packaged products, such as exchange-traded funds, that feature S&P 500 Index subsectors.

This chart is for illustrative purposes only and not indicative of any actual investment. The illustration excludes the effects of taxes and brokerage commissions and other expenses incurred when investing. Investors cannot invest directly in an index. The S&P 500 Index is an unmanaged index of 500 companies used to measure large-cap U.S. stock market performance, while the S&P sector and subsector indices are capitalization-weighted and comprised of S&P 500 constituents representing a specific sector or industry.

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Posted on Tuesday, March 21, 2023 @ 3:20 PM • Post Link Share: 
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  US Stock Markets Ended March 17, 2023
Posted Under: Weekly Market Commentary
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Equity markets returned 1.47% last week while the S&P 500 volatility index peaked over 26 for the first time since last October. Equity investors were panicked after last weekend as Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank were put into receivership by the FDIC. Investors worried that accumulated losses in the held-to-maturity (HTM) book of assets might have to be realized which could impair these banks equity position. Other banks were also in distress last week. San Francisco based bank First Republic Bank plummeted after accumulated losses in their HTM investments threatened to wipe out their equity. On Friday, a capital rescue package from other mega-cap banks to the tune of $30b was not enough to quell investors fears and the name continued to fall through Friday to return -71.8% last week. The banking issues seemed to spread internationally as the Stoxx 600 Bank index returned -11.5% last week. Credit Suisse shares returned -24.4% after worries mounted on their possible insolvency. On Thursday night Credit Suisse was able to borrow $54b from the Swiss central bank to calm investor and depositor fears of a collapse. Despite all the global banking issues, energy was the worst performing sector last week. Oil prices fell from $76.68 to $66.27 to close last week. News of bank failures gripped energy investors as recession fears mounted, as well as continued IEA reports that Russian oil supply seems to be a supply overhang for the commodity. Looking ahead to next week, markets will be focused on how solvent the global banking systems are. As always, we remain focused on long-term investing. During times of market stress is where dislocations in market valuations can present buying opportunities, we remain constructive on equities in the long run focusing on quality companies at compelling valuations. 

Posted on Monday, March 20, 2023 @ 8:14 AM • Post Link Share: 
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  US Economy and Credit Markets Ended March 17, 2023
Posted Under: Weekly Market Commentary
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Treasury yields tumbled significantly over the course of the week as the collapse of multiple banks and the fear of additional bank failures took their toll on the markets. By the opening of trading on Monday, Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank had both collapsed, leading investors to believe that the Federal Reserve Bank may pause interest rate hikes at the upcoming March 22nd meeting or, at the very least, drastically reduce interest rate expectations for the year. At the end of the previous week, the market implied Fed Funds Rate for the July 26th meeting was 5.27%. By the end of Monday that implied rate dropped to 4.11%. On Tuesday, the February Consumer Price Index showed that inflation remained elevated at an annual rate of 6.0%, but this was in line with expectations and a drop from 6.4% the previous month. This caused Treasury yields to rebound significantly but remained much lower than the prior Friday’s close. Treasury yields then dropped significantly again on Wednesday as investors became concerned that Credit Suisse would become the next financial institution to collapse. Yields rebounded again on Thursday after Credit Suisse received stabilizing funds from Swiss regulators and a rescue package for First Republic Bank in the U.S. was secured. The European Central Bank also went ahead with a 50-basis-point rate hike on Thursday. Ultimately, Treasury yields finished the week down significantly again on Friday and the market implied Fed Funds Rate after the July 26th meeting finished the week at 4.20%. Gold finished the week up 6% while fears of a recession weighed on demand for oil as it finished down 13%.  Major economic reports (related consensus forecasts, prior data) for the upcoming week include Tuesday: February Existing Home Sales (4.20m, 4.00m); Wednesday: March 17 MBA Mortgage Applications (n/a, 6.5%), March 22 FOMC Rate Decision (Upper Bound) (5.00%, 4.75%); Thursday: March 18 Initial Jobless Claims (199k, 192k), February New Home Sales (650k, 670k); Friday: February Prelim. Durable Goods Orders (1.5%, -4.5%), March Prelim. S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI (47.3, 47.3).

Posted on Monday, March 20, 2023 @ 8:14 AM • Post Link Share: 
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  Every Year Looks Volatile Compared To 2017
Posted Under: Broader Stock Market
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View from the Observation Deck  

In 2017, the S&P 500 Index ("index") did not register a single down month on a total return basis, which includes reinvested dividends. That is not typically the case. In 14 of the past 15 calendar years (2008-2022), which includes the 2008-2009 financial crisis, the index endured no less than two negative total return months and as many as eight (see table).
From 2008 through February 2023, the S&P 500 Index endured a loss in 61 of the 182 months on a total return basis, or approximately 33.5% of the time. Over that same period, the index posted an average annualized total return of 8.95%, according to Bloomberg. 
For comparative purposes, from 1926 through 2022, the S&P 500 Index posted a loss in 26 of the 97 calendar years on a total return basis, or approximately 26.8% of the time, according to data from Ibbotson Associates/Morningstar. Over that same period, the index posted an average annual total return of 10.12%.

  • In 2020, there were five down months and the -12.35% total return posted in March of that year marked the largest monthly decline for any year in the table, following 2008. Despite the five down months, the index posted a total return of 18.40%.
  • Year-to-date through 2/28/23, the S&P 500 Index has endured one down month (February), according to S&P Dow Jones Indices.  
  • A Bloomberg survey of 24 equity strategists found that their average 2023 year-end price target for the S&P 500 Index was 4,050 as of 2/17/23, which represents no change from 4,050 on 1/20/23 (24 strategists surveyed), according to its own release. The highest and lowest estimates were 4,750 (unchanged) and 3,225 (unchanged), respectively. The index closed trading on 3/14/23 at 3,919.29.
  • Brian Wesbury, Chief Economist at First Trust Advisors L.P., announced on December 12, 2022, that he is looking for a 2023 year-end price target of 3,900.

Takeaway: After posting a total return of 6.28% in January (the index’s best start to the year since 2009), the S&P 500 Index reversed course, falling by 2.45% on a total return basis in February. Losses continued into March. Month-to-date through 3/14/23, the index is down 1.19% on a total return basis. The year has been volatile, but as you can see from the table, volatility is the norm. Furthermore, given recent news surrounding the banking sector, stubbornly high inflation, and the possibility of the U.S. experiencing an economic recession later this year, it is our view that the potential for volatility could remain elevated in 2023. That said, stock prices don't rise in a straight line and investors are going to encounter some turbulent times along the way. Remember, the S&P 500 Index has never failed to fully recoup any losses sustained from corrections or bear markets over time.

This chart is for illustrative purposes only and not indicative of any actual investment. The illustration excludes the effects of taxes and brokerage commissions and other expenses incurred when investing. Investors cannot invest directly in an index. There can be no assurance that any past trends will continue or that projections cited will occur. The S&P 500 Index is an unmanaged index of 500 companies used to measure large-cap U.S. stock market performance.

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Posted on Thursday, March 16, 2023 @ 10:58 AM • Post Link Share: 
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  How Bonds Have Fared Since 8/4/20
Posted Under: Bond Market
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View from the Observation Deck  


On 8/4/20, the yield on the 10-year Treasury note (T-note) closed at an all-time low of 0.51%, according to Bloomberg. Since then, the yield on the 10-year T-note rose by 319 basis points (bps), settling at 3.70% as of 3/10/23. To view the last post we did on this topic, click here.

Per the chart above, the 319 bps increase in the 10-year T-note coincided with a dramatic sell-off in longer duration fixed income categories.

As many investors may be aware, bond yields typically move in the opposite direction of bond prices. Notably, only two of the 11 debt categories represented in today’s chart are in positive territory. They are leveraged loans (senior loans), which are floating-rate speculative-grade securities, and U.S. high-yield bonds, commonly known as “junk” bonds because of their lower credit quality. Both categories are also known for their shorter duration profiles, a feature which may have helped them to weather the recent interest rate climate more effectively, in our opinion. 
Inflation, as measured by the trailing 12-month rate of change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI), is at a level not seen since 1990, according to data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (excluding October 2021, when it was trending towards its June 2022 peak of 9.1%).


We want to acknowledge that inflation, as measured by the CPI, has been trending downward since peaking at 9.1% in June 2022. That said, February’s CPI rate of 6.0% represents the highest level we have seen since 1990. In response to surging inflation, the Federal Reserve (“Fed”) has raised the federal funds target rate (upper bound) at a rapid pace. As of 02/28/23, the federal funds target rate (upper bound) stood at 4.75%, up from 0.25% on 2/28/22. We will be watching to see if the Fed continues to push interest rates higher over the next few meetings.

Emerging market bonds and intermediate-term global government bonds were deep into negative territory for the period captured in the chart.

The strength in the U.S. dollar definitely had a negative impact on the performance of foreign bonds, in our opinion. The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) rose by 11.99% over the period indicated in today’s chart, according to Bloomberg. The U.S. Dollar Index stood at 104.58 as of the close of trading on 3/10/23. The index has closed above the 100 mark in every trading session since 4/13/22, according to data from Bloomberg.

Takeaway: Today’s chart reveals the impact tighter monetary policy can have on fixed income securities. This begs the question: what is the Fed’s next move? On one hand, inflation remains stubbornly high, and the U.S. consumer data and labor market appear to be relatively strong (Click Here to view “The Consumer Gets Some Love”). These factors could be a signal to the Fed that further monetary tightening is necessary. On the other hand, the U.S. just experienced its second-largest bank failure of all-time. Brian Wesbury, Chief Economist at First Trust Portfolios LP noted that last week’s news about Silicon Valley Bank makes a 50 basis point hike unlikely. The situation is changing rapidly, and the yield on the 10-year T-note has been volatile, shedding an additional 12 basis points on 3/13/23 to settle at 3.58% as of market close. We will keep monitoring the data and report back on this topic as warranted.

This chart is for illustrative purposes only and not indicative of any actual investment. The illustration excludes the effects of taxes and brokerage commissions or other expenses incurred when investing. Investors cannot invest directly in an index. The ICE BofA U.S. High Yield Constrained Index tracks the performance of U.S. dollar denominated below investment grade corporate debt publicly issued in the U.S. domestic market. The Morningstar LSTA U.S. Leveraged Loan Index is a market value-weighted index designed to measure the performance of the U.S. leveraged loan market. The ICE BofA Emerging Markets Corporate Plus Index tracks the performance of U.S. dollar and euro denominated emerging markets non-sovereign debt publicly issued in the major domestic and eurobond markets. The ICE BofA Fixed Rate Preferred Securities Index tracks the performance of investment grade fixed rate U.S. dollar denominated preferred securities issued in the U.S. domestic market. The ICE BofA U.S. Mortgage Backed Securities Index tracks the performance of U.S. dollar denominated fixed rate and hybrid residential mortgage pass-through securities publicly issued by U.S. agencies in the U.S. domestic market. The ICE BofA 1-3 Year U.S. Corporate Index is a subset of the ICE BofA U.S. Corporate Index including all securities with a remaining term to maturity of less than 3 years. The ICE BofA 1-3 Year U.S. Treasury Index tracks the performance of U.S. dollar denominated sovereign debt publicly issued by the U.S. government with a remaining term to maturity of less than 3 years. The ICE BofA 22+ Year U.S. Municipal Securities Index tracks the performance of U.S. dollar denominated investment grade tax-exempt debt publicly issued by U.S. states and territories, and their political subdivisions with a remaining term to maturity greater than or equal to 22 years. The ICE BofA U.S. Corporate Index tracks the performance of U.S. dollar denominated investment grade corporate debt publicly issued in the U.S. domestic market. The ICE BofA 7-10 Year Global Government (ex U.S.) Index tracks the performance of publicly issued investment grade sovereign debt denominated in the issuer's own domestic currency with a remaining term to maturity between 7 to 10 years, excluding those denominated in U.S. dollars. The ICE BofA 7-10 Year U.S. Treasury Index tracks the performance of U.S. dollar denominated sovereign debt publicly issued by the U.S. government with a remaining term to maturity between 7 to 10 years. 

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Posted on Tuesday, March 14, 2023 @ 4:15 PM • Post Link Share: 
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  US Stock Markets Ended March 10, 2023
Posted Under: Weekly Market Commentary
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Stocks traded lower by 4.5%, measured by the S&P 500, last week after investors dealt with significant news throughout the week. On Tuesday, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said the central bank is ready to raise interest rates higher if recent signs of economic strength persist. His remarks, presented to the Senate Banking Committee, noted higher inflation and a strong job market as the drivers for higher and potentially quicker rate increases. On Thursday, President Biden released his budget proposal, the third of his presidency, outlining his commitment to American manufacturing as well as a $3 trillion new deficit reduction coming from tax increases on companies and high earners. Republicans will offer their version in the coming months and are expected to forego tax increases in favor of spending cuts to various federal programs. Friday’s downward market action continued after trouble in the US banking sector came to light with Silicon Valley based lender SVB Financial Group. Volatility gripped the markets as SVB’s customer base of tech startups pulled money out of the bank. This followed after Silvergate Capital Corp announced it was voluntarily liquidating its bank after pressure from depositors and regulators for its dealing with now-defunct crypto company FTX. SVB is now seeking a buyer after regulators closed its banking unit. Plans for a capital raise fell through earlier in the week when some venture capital firms advised their portfolio companies to pull money from the bank after it announced losses to its security portfolio. The interest rate volatility along with the turbulent banking news caused Financials stocks in the S&P 500 to trade lower by almost 9% last week, followed by other rate-sensitive sectors, Materials and Real Estate. Looking ahead to next week, CPI and PPI levels are set for release along with retail sales, housing data, and consumer sentiment. 

Posted on Monday, March 13, 2023 @ 8:43 AM • Post Link Share: 
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  US Economy and Credit Markets Ended March 10, 2023
Posted Under: Weekly Market Commentary
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Treasury yields fell last week in a volatile week. On Tuesday, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said the Fed could speed up rate increases given stronger-than-expected economic data to start the year and raise rates more than expected as it wrestles with high inflation. Following the comments, the market changed its expectations for the most likely outcome at the Fed’s March meeting from a single-rate hike to a double-rate hike. Powell also told Congress that the journey back to the Fed’s 2% inflation target “has a long way to go and is likely to be bumpy.” The two-year Treasury yield topped 5% on the news, reaching its highest level since 2007. The two-year yield also reached a full percentage point above the 10-year yield, the largest yield-curve inversion since 1981. An inverted yield curve, especially this deeply, is typically seen as a negative sign for future economic growth. Treasury yields then sharply reversed course later in the week. Yields fell in a flight to safety on news that SVB Financial Group, parent of Silicon Valley Bank, would need to raise capital after deposits fled the bank and the company sold a substantial portion of its investment portfolio at a loss. The news tempered bets that the Fed will speed up rate increases. Economic data released Friday showed jobs grew more than expected in February, but wage growth cooled. The wage data offered a further reprieve from the selling in government bonds and the jump in Treasury yields earlier in the week. Major economic reports (related consensus forecasts, prior data) for the upcoming week include Tuesday: February CPI MoM (0.4%, 0.5%), February CPI YoY (6.0%, 6.4%); Wednesday: February Retail Sales Advance MoM (-0.4%, 3.0%), March 10 MBA Mortgage Applications (N/A, 7.4%), February PPI Final Demand MoM (0.3%, 0.7%), March Empire Manufacturing (-8.0, -5.8); Thursday: March 11 Initial Jobless Claims (210k, 211k), February Housing Starts (1312k, 1309k); Friday: March Preliminary U. of Mich. Sentiment (67.0, 67.0), February Industrial Production MoM (0.4%, 0.0%), February Leading Index (-0.2%, -0.3%). 

Posted on Monday, March 13, 2023 @ 8:42 AM • Post Link Share: 
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  A Snapshot Of The S&P 500 Index Earnings Beat Rate
Posted Under: Broader Stock Market
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View from the Observation Deck  

As we head into the close of the Q4'22 corporate earnings reporting season, we thought it would be a good time to review the percentage of S&P 500 Index companies that exceed their quarterly earnings estimates. Equity analysts adjust their corporate earnings estimates on an ongoing basis. Regardless of whether they adjust their estimates up or down, companies typically have a consensus target number or range to hit.

  • From Q4'18 through Q4'22 (17 quarters), the average earnings beat rate for the companies that comprise the index was 76.1%, notably higher than the 67.3% beat rate for the 480 companies that have reported results for Q4’22. 
  • As indicated in the chart, only one of the last six quarterly beat rates (Q3'21) exceeded the 80% mark.
  • At 67.3%, the earnings beat rate for Q4’22 is the lowest the rate has been since Q1’20 (the start of the COVID-19 pandemic).
  • The S&P 500 Index posted a cumulative total return of 41.80% for the period covered by the chart (9/28/18–12/30/22), according to Bloomberg.
  • Information Technology (78.87%), Consumer Discretionary (77.55%) and Health Care (75.41%) have registered the highest earnings beat rates in Q4'22 (not in chart), according to S&P Dow Jones Indices. Communication Services had the lowest beat rate at 47.83%.

Takeaway: Refinitiv reported that when it comes to positive surprises, earnings have been a mere 1.6% above estimates in Q4’22, according to CNBC. The figure is the lowest that it has been in 15 years. Furthermore, earnings quality appears to be weakening. Bloomberg reported that for every dollar of profits, $0.88 was matched by cash inflows, the biggest discrepancy since at least 1990. On a dollar basis, Bloomberg’s 2022, 2023 and 2024 consensus earnings per share estimates for the S&P 500 Index stood at $222.4, $220.5 and $245.4, respectively, as of 3/3/23. 

This chart is for illustrative purposes only and not indicative of any actual investment. The illustration excludes the effects of taxes and brokerage commissions or other expenses incurred when investing. Investors cannot invest directly in an index. The S&P 500 is a capitalization-weighted index comprised of 500 companies used to measure large-cap U.S. stock market performance. 

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Posted on Thursday, March 9, 2023 @ 11:28 AM • Post Link Share: 
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  Passive vs. Active Fund Flows
Posted Under: Conceptual Investing
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View from the Observation Deck:

Investors directing capital into mutual funds and exchange traded funds (ETFs) continued to favor passive investing over active management on a massive scale for the 12-month period ended 1/31/23.

This has been the case for the past several years. Passive mutual funds and ETFs reported estimated net inflows totaling $583.95 billion for the 12-month period ended 1/31/23 while active funds reported estimated net outflows totaling $914.52 billion over the same period. The only active categories over the past 12 months with net inflows were Nontraditional Equity, Alternative and Miscellaneous with inflows of $23.07 billion, $21.88 billion and $1.38 billion, respectively (see table above). For comparison, the top three passive categories were U.S. Equity, Taxable Bond and International Equity with inflows of $289.63 billion, $206.89 billion and $70.92 billion, respectively.

Despite lackluster returns in the major global stock indices for the 12-month period ended 1/31/23, investors funneled more capital into equities than any other category.  

The S&P 500, S&P MidCap 400 and S&P SmallCap 600 Indices posted total returns of -8.23%, 2.30% and -1.00% respectively, for the 12-month period ended 1/31/23, according to Bloomberg. With respect to foreign equities, the MSCI Daily TR Net World (ex U.S.) and MSCI Emerging Net TR Indices posted total returns of -2.98% and -12.12%, respectively. Combined, the Taxable and Municipal Bond categories reported net outflows totaling $267.40 billion for the 12-month period ended 1/31/23. The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) rose by 5.76% for the 12-month period ended 1/31/23, according to Bloomberg. The index reflects the general international value of the dollar relative to a basket of major world currencies. The stronger dollar created a drag on the performance of unhedged foreign securities held by U.S. investors, in our opinion.

Takeaway: Passive mutual funds and ETFs saw inflows of $583.95 billion compared to outflows of $914.52 billion for active funds over the trailing 12-month period ended 1/31/23. In the table above, we observe the largest disparity occurred in the Taxable Bond category, with active shedding $367.54 billion compared to inflows of $206.89 billion for passive funds. Nontraditional Equity, Alternative, and Miscellaneous were the only three categories to see inflows among both the active and passive management styles. To view the last time we updated this post, please click here.

This chart is for illustrative purposes only and not indicative of any actual investment. The illustration excludes the effects of taxes and brokerage commissions and other expenses incurred when investing. Investors cannot invest directly in an index. The S&P 500 Index is an unmanaged index of 500 companies used to measure large-cap U.S. stock market performance. The S&P MidCap 400 Index is a capitalization-weighted index that tracks the mid-range sector of the U.S. stock market. The S&P SmallCap 600 Index is a capitalization-weighted index that tracks U.S. companies with a small market capitalization. The MSCI Emerging Markets Index is a free float-adjusted market capitalization index that is designed to measure equity market performance of emerging markets. The MSCI World (ex U.S.) Index is a free-float weighted index designed to measure the equity market performance of developed markets. The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) indicates the general international value of the dollar relative to a basket of major world currencies.

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Posted on Wednesday, March 8, 2023 @ 8:36 AM • Post Link Share: 
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These posts were prepared by First Trust Advisors L.P., and reflect the current opinion of the authors. They are based upon sources and data believed to be accurate and reliable. Opinions and forward looking statements expressed are subject to change without notice. This information does not constitute a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any security.
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