US Economy and Credit Markets Ended August 26, 2022
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U.S. Treasury yields rose steadily through last week in advance of Chairman Powell’s speaking at Jackson Hole. At the meeting, the Fed Chief used the opportunity to reinforce messaging that inflation remains too high and lowering it remains the priority.  Using Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari’s comments to perhaps provide a less nuanced take on the current state of inflation: “This is a raging inferno.  And so, I think a raging inferno entails significant risks.”  Mr. Powell’s official comments indicated that “another unusually large” potential hike could be decided upon in the next meeting.  Mr. Powell stated that “restoring price stability will likely require maintaining a restrictive policy stance for some time” and that “the historical record cautions strongly against prematurely loosening policy.”  He went on, saying ominously, “Restoring price stability will take some time and requires using our tools forcefully to bring demand and supply into better balance.”  Making major news last Tuesday was the new single-family home sales data which noted a stunning 12.6% decline in July, down 29.6% from the year prior.  Also among economic reports was personal income and personal spending, which were both slightly below expectations at 0.2% and 0.1% respectively.  Major economic reports (related consensus forecasts, prior data) for the upcoming week include: Tuesday: August Conference Board Consumer Confidence (97.7, 95.7); Wednesday: August 26 MBA Mortgage Applications (n/a, -1.2%), August ADP Employment Change (300K) and August MNI Chicago PMI (52.5, 52.1); Thursday: August 27 Initial Jobless Claims (249k, 243k), August Final S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI (51.3, unch.) and ISM Manufacturing (52.0, 52.8); Friday: August Change in Nonfarm Payrolls (300K, 528K), August Unemployment Rate (3.5%, unch.), July Factory Orders (0.2%, 2.0%) and July Final Durable Goods Orders (0.0%, unch.).

Posted on Monday, August 29, 2022 @ 8:00 AM

These posts were prepared by First Trust Advisors L.P., and reflect the current opinion of the authors. They are based upon sources and data believed to be accurate and reliable. Opinions and forward looking statements expressed are subject to change without notice. This information does not constitute a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any security.