Today's blog post shows the yields on a couple of benchmark government bond maturities from key countries/economies around the globe.

While bond yields are up from their historic lows, they remain artificially depressed.    

The yield on the U.S. 10-year Treasury note (T-note) stood at 1.29% at 12:00PM CST on 8/18/21, 78 basis points (bps) higher than its all-time closing low of 0.51% on 8/4/20 (not in table), but 468 basis points below its historical average yield of 5.97% since 1/5/62 (not in table), according to Bloomberg.

The yield spread between the U.S. 2-year T-note and the 10-year T-note was 107 basis points at 12:00PM CST on 8/18/21, a bit below its 30-year average spread of 117 basis points, according to Bloomberg. Remember not that long ago when economists were concerned about an inverted Treasury yield curve?  That is a scenario where short-term yields exceed those offered by bonds with intermediate and long maturities. 

Bond investors should be aware that there is some growing support among Federal Reserve officials in favor of beginning the tapering of its asset purchases as early as Q4'21, according to CNBC. This would entail the Fed cutting back on its monthly bond purchases, consisting of $80 billion of Treasuries and $40 billion of mortgage-backed securities. 

Investors continue to funnel huge amounts of capital into bond mutual funds and exchange-traded funds despite the rise in bond yields. Taxable and Municipal bond mutual funds and ETFs reported estimated net inflows totaling a combined $860.72 billion for the 12-month period ended 6/30/21, according to Morningstar.

We will continue to monitor to see if rising inflation plus the potential for tapering by year-end is enough to push bond yields higher in the months ahead.