US Economy and Credit Markets Week Ended November 4, 2011
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U.S. Treasuries rallied this week on concerns that the European rescue plan may unravel as early in the week Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou said he would put it to a referendum. By Thursday, the referendum was off the table and the ECB unexpectedly lowered rates which temporarily reduced the safe haven demand but did not offset the rally. In economic news the ISM Manufacturing Index for October was reported at 50.8, less than the estimate of 52.0. October vehicle sales were reported Tuesday with total sales of 13.2 million annualized matching expectations and domestic sales reported at 10.29 million, slightly below the estimate of 10.30 million. Wednesday, the Federal Reserve made no changes to interest rates and did not mention additional rounds of further quantitative easing. Thursday, 3rd quarter nonfarm productivity growth was reported at 3.1%, slightly higher than the estimate of 3.0%. In addition, the ISM non-manufacturing composite was reported at 52.9, slightly below the estimate of 53.5. Nonfarm payrolls increased 80,000 in October, below the consensus estimate of 95,000 while the unemployment rate ticked down from 9.1% to 9.0%. Major economic reports (and related consensus forecasts) for next week include: Monday: September Consumer Credit ($5.2B); Wednesday: September Wholesale Inventories (0.5%); Thursday: October Import Price Index (0.1%, 12.3% YoY), September Trade Balance (-$46.2B), October Monthly Budget Statement (-$105.0B); Friday: November U of M Consumer Confidence (61.5).
Posted on Tuesday, November 8, 2011 @ 4:01 PM

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