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US Economy and Credit Markets Ended Sept. 20, 2019
In 2019 the Federal Reserve changed from having a press conference and question and answer session at every other meeting to having them at every monthly Federal Reserve Committee meeting. They viewed this as desirable as non-press conference meetings were perceived as having less policy impact than those with a press conference, however, it also seems the Federal Reserve is increasingly sensitive to market events. In the September meeting, which was held last week, the Federal Reserve lowered the policy rate by 25 bps, and there were three dissents. While the dot plot indicates no further cuts in 2019, as of the end of last week, the market is pricing in a 67% chance of another cut before the end of 2019. Prices on bonds gained slightly after Wednesday's meeting and were higher over the week. Oil prices spiked suddenly on Monday owing to an attack on a major Saudi production facility over the previous weekend. They settled lower throughout the rest of the week. Major economic reports (related consensus forecasts, prior data) for the upcoming week include: Monday: September preliminary Markit US Manufacturing PMI (50.3, unch.); Tuesday: September Conference Board Consumer Confidence (133.0, 135.1); Wednesday: September 20 MBA Mortgage Applications (N/A, -0.1%) August New Home Sales (656K, 635K); Thursday:2Q GDP Annualized QoQ (2.0%, unch.) 2Q Personal Consumption (4.7%, unch.) GDP Price Index (2.4%, unch.) 2Q Core PCE QoQ (1.7%, unch.), August preliminary Wholesale Inventories MoM (0.2%, unch), prior week Initial Jobless Claims (211K, 208K); Friday: August Personal Income (0.4%, 0.1%), preliminary August (Durable Goods Orders (-1.2%, 2.0%), August Personal Spending (0.3%, 0.6%) and University of Michigan final September Sentiment (92.1, 92)
Monday, September 23, 2019 @ 8:40 AM
These posts were prepared by First Trust Advisors L.P., and reflect the current opinion of the authors. They are based upon sources and data believed to be accurate and reliable. Opinions and forward looking statements expressed are subject to change without notice. This information does not constitute a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any security.