Implications:  Retail sales rose slightly in April after a surge in March and now sit at an all-time high.  Despite the overall increase, a majority of sales categories (seven) declined in April, with several import-heavy categories pulling back, such as autos, department stores, sporting goods stores, and miscellaneous retailers (think office and pet supply).  We like to follow “core” sales, which excludes the often-volatile categories for autos, building materials, and gas.  That measure ticked up 0.1% in April and was up 0.3% including revisions to previous months.  Core sales are up 5.5% in the past year but have been slowing in 2025: up at a 3.7% annual rate in the first quarter, which includes the March bump from tariff front-running.  The good news is that sales at restaurant & bars, which had been dragging lately, posted a strong gain in April.  The 1.2% increase comes on the heels of an upwardly revised 3.0% gain in March, suggesting that consumers have shifted some of their spending to services while the dust settles around tariffs.  Looking at the big picture, as a whole retail sales are up 5.2% on a year-to-year basis and sit at an all-time high.  However, “real” inflation-adjusted retail sales are up 2.8% in the past year and are still down from the peak in early 2021.  This highlights the ugly ramifications of inflation: consumers are paying higher prices today but taking home fewer goods than they were four years ago.  Going forward, we expect retail sales to remain choppy as consumers respond to the global trade reordering currently underway.  In other recent news, initial jobless claims were unchanged last week at 229,000, while continuing claims rose 9,000 to 1.881 million.  These figures are consistent with continued job growth in May, but at a slower pace than last year.

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