Yesterday the Business Cycle Dating Committee of the National Bureau of Economic Research met and declared that the recession ended in June 2009. The fact that it took them 15 months to come up with this date is not unusual. The 2001 recession that ended in November of 2001 was announced July 2003, 18 months later, while the 1990-91 recession ended in March 1991 and was not announced until December of 1992, 21 months after.
It is true that this past recession was the longest since the Great Depression, but when they are compared they were not even close to each other. The Great Depression lasted for 43 months while this past recession was for 18 months. A more accurate comparison would be the early 1980s when the US fell into recession for 22 of the 36 months over the three year period from 1980-82.
It's not our practice to toot our own horn, but in the middle of the panic (Feb. 2009) It was our contention that the recession would end by mid-2009. In fact, we stated that it ended in June 2009 in our December 14th, 2009 Monday Morning Outlook.
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Posted on Tuesday, September 21, 2010 @ 3:27 PM
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