View from the Observation Deck
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On 12/11/19, the S&P 500 Index closed the trading session at 3,141.63, 0.38% below its all-time high of 3,153.63 (11/27/19), according to Bloomberg.
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For the market to trend higher, we believe that corporate earnings will need to grow, and perhaps the best catalyst for growing earnings is to increase revenues.
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From 1926-2018 (93 years), the S&P 500 Index posted an average annual total return of 9.99%, according to Morningstar/Ibbotson & Associates.
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As indicated in the table, Bloomberg's 2020 and 2021 consensus year-over-year (y-o-y) earnings growth rate estimates for the index were 9.2% and 10.5%, respectively, as of 12/6/19.
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Five of the 11 major sectors that comprise the index reflect a positive double-digit y-o-y earnings growth rate estimate for 2020, compared to six in 2021.
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Bloomberg's 2020 and 2021 consensus y-o-y revenue growth rate estimates for the S&P 500 Index were 4.8% and 4.7%, respectively, as of 12/6/19.
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Four of the 11 major sectors reflect y-o-y revenue growth rate estimates of 5.0% or more for 2020, compared to five for 2021.
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While the consensus y-o-y earnings growth rate estimate for the S&P 500 Index is slightly negative for Q4'19, all four quarters in 2020 reflect upside. The following is a breakdown of those quarterly estimates through 2020 (not in table): -1.0% (Q4'19); 3.8% (Q1'20); 4.9% (Q2'20); 9.3% (Q3'20); and 13.3% (Q4'20), according to Bloomberg.
This chart is for illustrative purposes only and not indicative of any actual investment. There can be no assurance that any of the projections cited will occur. The illustration excludes the effects of taxes and brokerage commissions or other expenses incurred when investing. Investors cannot invest directly in an index. The S&P 500 Index is an unmanaged index of 500 stocks used to measure large-cap U.S. stock market performance. The 11 major S&P 500 Sector Indices are capitalization-weighted and comprised of S&P 500 constituents representing a specific sector.
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Posted on Thursday, December 12, 2019 @ 2:19 PM
Posts are prepared by First Trust Advisors L. P., and reflect the current opinion of the authors. They are based upon sources and data believed to be accurate and reliable. Opinions and forward looking statements expressed are subject to change without notice. This information does not constitute a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any security.