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  • US Economy and Credit Markets Ended November 30, 2018

U.S. Treasury note yields were up at the start of the week as investors favored risk assets. On Monday, the 10-year Treasury note yield had its largest one-day gain in nearly a year. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's speech on Wednesday received mixed interpretations by investors and economists. Some viewed Chairman Powell's comments as dovish, while others believe he did not add much more new information and was merely restating the current monetary policy stance of the Federal Open Market Committee. U.S. Treasury note yields finished down on Friday with the 10-year Treasury note yield declining the most in one month since August of last year. Investors are anxiously waiting for news out of Buenos Aires as President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping plan to meet at the G-20 summit. Last week saw a slew of economic data. Real GDP grew at a 3.5% annual growth rate in the third quarter, matching the initial estimate as well as consensus expectations. Pre-tax corporate profits grew by 3.4% in the third quarter, the fastest quarterly growth rate since the second quarter of 2014, and are up 10.3% in the past year, the largest four-quarter increase since mid-2012. New single-family home sales declined 8.9% in October to an annual rate of 544,000, missing consensus estimates. Personal income increased 0.5% and personal consumption increased 0.6% in October, both beating consensus estimates. Major economic reports (related consensus forecasts, prior data) for the upcoming week include: Monday: November Final Markit US Manufacturing PMI (55.4, 55.4), October Construction Spending MoM (0.4%, 0.0%), November ISM Manufacturing (57.5, 57.7); Wednesday: November 30 MBA Mortgage Applications (n/a, 5.5%), October ADP Employment Change (195k, 227k); Thursday: October Trade Balance (-$55b, -$54.0b), October Factory Orders (-2.0%, 0.7%), December 1 Initial Jobless Claims (225k, 234k), October Final Durable Goods (-2.4%, -4.4%); Friday: November Change in Nonfarm Payrolls (198k, 250k).
Posted on Monday, December 3, 2018 @ 8:24 AM
Posts are prepared by First Trust Advisors L. P., and reflect the current opinion of the authors. They are based upon sources and data believed to be accurate and reliable. Opinions and forward looking statements expressed are subject to change without notice. This information does not constitute a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any security.