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Bob Carey
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  US Economy and Credit Markets Ended January 11, 2019
Posted Under: Weekly Market Commentary

 
On January 9, The Federal Reserve Board and the Federal Open Market Committee released the minutes of the Committee meeting held on December 18-19, 2018. In discussing financial markets for the intervening period, they noted increased volatility in asset prices from reduced risk-taking by investors. They cited China and United States trade, global growth outlook and Brexit negotiations as reasons for reduced risk taking. In review of the United States economic situation they indicated that labor market conditions continue to strengthen, industrial production continues to expand, household spending continues to increase but real residential investment declined further in the fourth quarter. Notably, the committee discussion saw the participants conclude that "the increased concerns about global growth, made the appropriate extent and timing of future policy firming less clear than earlier." Last week's Monday ISM non-manufacturing index reading registered a decline to 57.6 in December which was below expectations but still signaling expansion. Friday's Consumer Price Index registered a 0.1% decline for the month of December as energy prices fell 3.5% for the month. "Core" CPI, which excludes food and energy, increased 0.2%. Major economic reports (related consensus forecasts, prior data) for the upcoming week include: Tuesday: January Empire Manufacturing (11.8, 10.9) and December final PPI Demand MoM (-0.1%, 0.1%); Wednesday: January 11 MBA Mortgage Applications (N/A, 23.5%) and December Retail Sales Advance MoM (0.1%, 0.2%); Thursday: January 12 Initial Jobless Claims (220K, 216K) and Friday: December Industrial Production MoM (0.2%, 0.6%) and University of Michigan January preliminary Sentiment (96.4, 98.3).
Posted on Monday, January 14, 2019 @ 8:49 AM • Post Link Share: 
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