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Bob Carey
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  US Economy and Credit Markets Ended Jan. 6, 2023
Posted Under: Weekly Market Commentary
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Investors welcomed in the New Year with recession fears, hawkish Fed rhetoric, and mixed jobs report causing longer-dated end of the U.S. Treasury yield curve to fall during the holiday-shortened week. Tuesday, investors digested the Federal Reserve’s December meeting minutes, which revealed none of the top Fed officials forecast interest rate cuts would be appropriate in 2023. The Fed’s blunt hawkish tone on Tuesday was a stark contrast to the fed funds traders pricing in rate cuts later in the year. Signs of the economy slowing were evident in the December ISM data. Both the ISM Manufacturing and Non-Manufacturing Indices came in below 50.0, signaling contraction during the month. The week ended with a mixed jobs report. On the surface the jobs reports looked good with an increase of 223,000 nonfarm payrolls and unemployment declining in December, both better-than-expected results. The details flash warnings signs with temporary jobs and total hours worked declining last month and average hourly earnings slowing. Major economic reports (related consensus forecasts, prior data) for the upcoming week include Tuesday: December NFIB Small Business Optimism (91.5, 1.9) and November Final Wholesale Inventories MoM (1.0%, 1.0%); Wednesday: January 6 MBA Mortgage Applications (N/A, -10.3%); Thursday: December CPI MoM (0.0%, 0.1%), December CPI YoY (6.5%, 7.1%), December Monthly Budget Statement (-$70b, -$248b), January 7 Initial Jobless Claims (215k, 204k), and December 31 Continuing Claims (1718k, 1694k); Friday: December Import Price Index MoM (-0.9%, -0.6%),  January Preliminary University of Michigan Sentiment Index (60.5, 59.7).

Posted on Monday, January 9, 2023 @ 9:38 AM • Post Link Share: 
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