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Bob Carey
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  US Economy and Credit Markets Ended Jan. 20, 2023
Posted Under: Weekly Market Commentary
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Yields further inverted last week, as measured by the 3 Mo. - 10 Yr., which is natural as economic data deteriorates. The curve is intensely watched by the market for its history of anticipating economic contractions.  Also weighing on the market is the upcoming spectacle surrounding the debt ceiling.  Tangibly, however, there was much economic data last week and Wednesday’s releases included the Producer Price Index falling 0.5% on the back of falling energy and food prices.  Just don’t look at egg prices!  Retail sales fell for December and declining Industrial Production was registered.  Two housing reports were released last week, and both showed declines.  Friday revealed December’s Existing Home Sales fell 1.5% in December marking an eleventh consecutive month of declines primarily because of declining affordability from higher mortgage rates.  Housing starts fell in December for a fourth consecutive month all due to declining multi-unit starts.  There was a glimmer of hope in the housing start data as homebuilder sentiment, as measured by the NAHB Housing Index, rose to 35 in January from 31 in December. This is the first increase in thirteen months and ends the longest streak of declines since records began in 1985.  It is worth noting, though, that readings below 50 signal a builder view of conditions as poor versus good.  Major economic reports (related consensus forecasts, prior data) for the upcoming week include Monday:  December Leading Index (-0.7%, -1.0%) Tuesday: January Preliminary S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI (46.5, 46.2); Wednesday: January 20 MBA Mortgage Applications (N/A, 27.9%); Thursday: January 21 Initial Jobless Claims (205k, 190k), December New Home Sales (612k, 640k) and December Preliminary Durable Goods Orders (2.5%, -2.1%); Friday: December Personal Income (0.2%, 0.4%), December Personal Spending (-0.1%, 0.1%) and January Final University of Michigan Sentiment (64.6, unch.)

Posted on Monday, January 23, 2023 @ 8:25 AM • Post Link Share: 
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